After tinkering during the week it became clear that I wanted to get Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas into my cash lineup. Getting there proved to be tough, but jamming in that trio in a stars-and-scrubs type build paved the way to an optimal construction.
The key value pieces included WRs Christian Kirk ($5,700) and Marquise Brown ($5,300), TE Mike Gesicki ($5,300) and the Panthers DEF ($3,300). Thanks to the value in those plays I was also able to fit in Jaylen Samuels ($6,200), who draws another start with James Conner and Benny Snell sidelined. He’s sure to be the chalkiest play on the slate.
Brown operates as the Ravens No. 1 WR when healthy, makes a nice stack with Lamar Jackson and draws a healthy amount of targets. Despite missing two games he’s seen 43 targets to TE Mark Andrews’ 58 and is tied for the team lead with three receiving TDs. Another player who solid volume, Kirk finds himself in potential blowup territory against Tampa Bay. The Bucs allow the most FD points to opposing WRs, rank No. 26 in defensive pass DVOA and No. 1 in defensive rush DVOA. In other words, it’s a pass-funnel defense.
QB
Lamar Jackson (BAL) $8,600: Lamar Jackson played at such an elite level against the league’s best defense even Bill Polian admitted he made a mistake about the former Heisman Trophy winner. Polian, the Hall of Fame executive who founded the defunct AAF, once said Jackson should play WR instead of QB in the NFL. But after Jackson accounted for three TDs in leading Baltimore to the 17-point win, Polian changed his tune. In fantasy land, Jackson averages the most FD points (26.15) at the position and gets to face the bottom-feeder Bengals. Cincinnati allows the most total yards per game (435.8) and the sixth-most FD points per game to QBs.
RB
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) $9,700: It’s hard to imagine fading CMC, even at his current price. In an awesome display of stability, McCaffrey registered just two games with fewer than 20 FD points this season and both of them game against Tampa Bay’s top-ranked rush defense. He also scored 25.5 FD points last week against San Francisco’s second-ranked rush defense. Don’t let the matchup intimidate; McCaffrey’s a lock for 20-plus touches and has scored at least one TD in all but one game this season. On the other side of the field, Derrick Henry ($6,800) also offers a strong RB play.
WR
Michael Thomas (NO) $8,700: Can’t Guard Mike offers a potential ceiling game in a matchup with all the makings of a shootout. Vegas tagged Falcons-Saints with the highest over/under (51.5) on the slate and when these teams face off fireworks happen. When the divisional foes faced off last season the games featured totals of 80 (overtime) and 48. Thomas thrives off a league-leading 32.5-percent target share and should feast in this one. The Falcons allow the fourth-most FD points per game to WRs (34.79).
TE
Mike Gesicki (MIA) $5,300: His emergence coincides with Preston Williams suffering a season-ending injury, putting Gesicki in position for a larger target share. And he showed what he could do when given the chance in Week 9. He caught all six targets and led the Dolphins with 95 receiving yards and 15.8 YPR. Given Williams’ team-leading 21.4-percent target share just opened up, Gesicki gets to absorb more targets. His matchup against the Colts isn’t one to shy away from. And with no clear elite option at the position, I’m not willing to pay up this week.
D/ST
Carolina Panthers $3,300: Carolina offers value for the dollar and allows for optimal roster construction at other positions. Further, they’ve shown consistency in scoring FD points. The Panthers posted 11 FD points against Tennesee last week, and prior to Week 8’s 3-point performance, they scored 13-plus FD points in four straight games. It’s not an ideal spot on the road in Green Bay, but the value is there.
Week 10 Sample Lineup
QB: Lamar Jackson (BAL) $8,600
RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) $9,700
RB: Jaylen Samuels (PIT) $6,200
WR: Michael Thomas (NO) $8,700
WR: Christian Kirk (ARI) $5,700
WR: Marquise Brown (BAL) $5,300
FLEX: Zach Pascal (IND) $6,400
TE: Mike Gesicki (MIA) $5,300
D/ST: Cleveland Browns $3,500
Week 9 Rewind
Week 9 went according to plan, which is the best you can hope for in DFS. I cashed in 3-of-3 50/50 contests. Going back to Russell Wilson was an easy choice as there wasn’t anyone else who I really wanted to pay up or down for. I considered Matthew Stafford, but didn’t love the idea of him in a cash lineup at $7,600. Matt Moore ($6,500) also offered a strong value play, but after stacking Jaylen Samuels and Diontae Johnson at $5,000 apiece it became clear that value wasn’t needed.
Wilson was far and away the best play on the slate despite his price ($8,600) against Tamp Bay’s pass funnel defense. I wanted a Bucs receiver and Chris Godwin appeared at first to be that guy. But the $100 savings from him to Mike Evans ($8,200-$8,100) allowed me to fit Miami’s D/ST in and that paid dividends. Though Johnson fell flat, I’ll take process over results at his price any day. He offered the path to jam in CMC, Evans, and Wilson to give me a stud at each of those positions.
QB: Russell Wilson (SEA) $8,600 [39.22, 4.6x value] RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) $9,700 [36.1, 3.7x value] RB: Derrick Henry (TEN) $6,800 [23.4, 3.4x value] WR: Kenny Golladay (DET) $7,600 [21.2, 2.8x value] WR: Mike Evans (TB) $8,100 [30, 3.7x value] WR: Diontae Johnson (PIT) $5,000 [1, 0.2x value] FLEX: Jaylen Samuels (PIT) $5,000 [12.8, 2.6x value] TE: Jonnu Smith (TEN) $5,500 [3.3, 0.6x value] D/ST: Miami Dolphins $3,600 [8, 2.2x value]
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