Christian McCaffrey’s price on FanDuel shot back up to $10,500 this week, tying a season-high. For gamers contemplating CMC in cash games, the main factor to consider is how his price affects overall roster construction. In other words, is his upside worth the money and are there worthy value plays to offset his cost? He averages the most FD points per game (27.61) among RBs and it’s not close. Dalvin Cook (21.95) and Aaron Jones (19.38) rank second and third.
McCaffrey’s matchup against Atlanta doesn’t intimidate, but don’t view the Falcons as the team that can’t defend pass-catching backs. After allowing a league-high 117 receptions to RBs last season, Atlanta currently ranks No. 7 in receptions allowed to RBs (41). The Falcons yield an average of 20.60 FD points per game to opposing RBs, but they’ve only given up six rush TDs. For comparison, the Panthers themselves have given up the most rush TDs in the league (14) to RBs. It’s not a smash spot on paper for McCaffrey but also not one to shy away from.
So, knowing roster construction would be the only factor holding me back from CMC I tested the waters. I tinkered with two lineups: one with CMC and one without. Part of me wanted to lock in CMC and not look back. But one downfall of a top-heavy build comes when your studs don’t score enough points to account for inefficiencies elsewhere in the lineup. With that scenario that in mind I built a more balanced second lineup. This one featured a “core four” group of players: Lamar Jackson, Cook, Josh Jacobs and Mike Evans.
When I felt like both were the way I wanted them, here’s what they looked like:
The Verdict
Ultimately I decided to go with the CMC lineup given his slate-breaking ceiling. Taking a page from Adam Levitan’s playbook, I only play one lineup throughout my cash games each week. This keeps the process streamlined and allows for optimum focus on roster construction. Too often I found myself frustrated when playing even two different cash lineups. Keep in mind each week should be viewed as a chance to create the best possible lineup, not multiple good lineups.
QB
Lamar Jackson (BAL) $8,800: This week’s marquee matchup features two familiar foes in Jackson and Deshaun Watson. The Konami code QBs rank Nos. 1 and 2 in FD points per game, respectively, and their matchup stirs memories of a classic college game. Jackson-led Louisville faced off against Watson’s Clemson Tigers in 2016 with both teams ranked in the top-5. Clemson rallied late to win the epic contest 42-36. The signal-callers combined for eight TDs and 854 yards of offense. Fast forward to Week 11 and similar fireworks are expected. The Ravens-Texans game boasts the second-highest over-under of the week (51.5). Jackson draws a more favorable matchup as the Ravens are home favorites against the Texans, who allow an average of 19.66 FD points per game to QBs. Jackson and Watson were the only two QBs I considered for cash lineups this week.
RB
Derrius Guice (WAS) $4,700: A risky play for sure, Guice (knee) returns from injured reserve and figures to operate as a change-of-pace back and handle passing down work. It’s his first game action since Week 1, and he’ll form a committee with Adrian Peterson. But the price tag and Guice’s upside are too good to pass up for roster construction. The second-round pick from LSU sports a 73rd-percentile college dominator rating and at 5-11, 224-pounds sports the build of a prototypical workhorse back. The Jets ranks No. 2 in rush DVOA and held Saquon Barkley to one yard on 13 carries. But they’ve also allowed 59 receptions to RBs, tied for fourth-most in the league. If Guice gets utilized similarly to Chris Thompson – out with a toe injury – he has a good chance to return solid value.
WR
Michael Thomas (NO) $9,000: He saw a season-high 14 targets in last week’s loss to Atlanta and has seen at least 11 targets in every game since Week 4. Aside from his massive volume, he leads the NFL in total receiving yards (1,027) receiving yards per game (114.1). Thomas also excels at exploiting weak pass defenses and gets his third consecutive favorable matchup. Against teams ranked 20th or worse in pass DVOA, Thomas averages 23.28 FD points per game. That’s good news for him going up against Tampa Bay’s pass-funnel defense, which ranks No. 1 in rush DVOA but No. 27 in pass DVOA.
TE
Ross Dwelley (SF) $4,900: With George Kittle looking like a longshot for Sunday’s game, Dwelley again finds himself in-line for a healthy volume of targets. Even better for Dwelley’s outlook, the Niners play the Cardinals, who allow the most FD points per game to opposing TEs by a wide margin. Arizona allows an average of 17.97 FD points per game to the position. Tampa Bay allows the second-most (14.94). With Kittle out last week Dwelley played 91-percent of the snaps and saw seven targets, third-most on the team.
D/ST
Indianapolis Colts $4,400: The Colts D/ST displayed consistent scoring over the past five weeks, never notching fewer than seven FD points. They’re home favorites which generally bodes well for defenses, and face an oppsoing QB who hasn’t played since Week 1. With Nick Foles returning under center for Jacksonville, the Jaguars could experience some inconsistent play given his long layoff. I like the Colts to continue their solid play and force at a couple turnovers in this one.
Week 11 Sample Lineup
QB: Lamar Jackson (BAL) $8,800
RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) $10,500
RB: Derrius Guice (WAS) $4,700
WR: Michael Thomas (NO) $9,000
WR: D.J. Moore (CAR) $6,000
WR: Mohamed Sanu (NE) $5,800
FLEX: Brian Hill (ATL) $5,900
TE: Ross Dwelley (SF) $4,900
D/ST: Indianapolis Colts $4,400
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Week 10 Rewind
With Christian Kirk and Lamar Jackson posting the top-2 scores on the Sunday main slate, respectively, I cashed in four of four 50/50s for Week 10. In the grand scheme of things, the 142.42 FD points the lineup generated rank among my best this season. In true stars-and-scrubs fashion, the top half of my lineup carried the week, with Kirk putting the cherry on top. Jackson, McCaffrey and Michael Thomas were my lock plays and all three returned nice value. Their potential upside dictated roster construction, and while my value plays largely flamed out the stud trio made up for it.
Jaylen Samuels disappointed despite drawing the start with James Conner sidelined and wasn’t effective running the ball. He carried 14 times for 29 yards (2.1 YPC) and will slot back into his pass-catching role with Conner healthy. Duds at D/ST, TE and FLEX didn’t matter in the long run.
QB: Lamar Jackson (BAL) $8,600 [33.42, 3.9x value] RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) $9,700 [23.1, 2.2x value] RB: Jaylen Samuels (PIT) $6,200 [5.5, 0.9x value] WR: Michael Thomas (NO) $8,700 [21.7, 2.5x value] WR: Christian Kirk (ARI) $5,700 [34.42, 6.1x value] WR: Marquise Brown (BAL) $5,300 [16, 3.0x value] FLEX: Zach Pascal (IND) $6,400 [3.6, 0.6x value] TE: Mike Gesicki (MIA) $5,300 [2.3, 0.4x value
D/ST: Cleveland Browns $3,500 [2, 0.6x value]
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