Another week, another chance to lock Christian McCaffrey ($10,500) into cash game lineups. His price didn’t increase from last week and he’s by far the highest-floor play on the main slate with Dalvin Cook on bye. Given Drew Brees’ ($8,500) inflated price tag, Dak Prescott’s ($8,100) matchup against the Patriots, and Matt Ryan’s ($7,900) recent underwhelming scores I opted for value at QB. At home against the Dolphins, Baker Mayfield ($7,500) offers upside at a value price. Stacking the Browns, who have the third-highest implied team total (27.3), makes sense against Miami’s porous defense. And the value gained from Kareem Hunt ($5,600) and Jarvis Landry ($6,900) paved the way to jamming in Michael Thomas ($9,200).
QB
Baker Mayfield (CLE) $7,500: This week marks the first time I’m playing Mayfield in cash games this season for obvious reasons. But given the matchup, his price, and the lack of elite options at the position he was hard to pass up. The Dolphins yield the second-most points per game (30.5) and the fourth-most yards per game (394.3). They rank dead last in defensive DVOA and allow the fourth-most FD points per game to QBs (21.65). Mayfield scored 17 or more FD points in his last three straight games despite facing tough defenses in Buffalo and Denver, and to some degree Pittsburgh as well. He brings the potential to double that number this week.
RB
Miles Sanders (PHI) $5,600: With Jordan Howard out in Week 11 Sanders played 88.5-percent of the snaps and dominated Philadelphia’s backfield touches. This week, Sanders becomes the best value play of the slate while Howard’s bum shoulder keeps him sidelined again. He managed 47 yards on 13 touches against New England’s stout defense, which ranks No. 1 in DVOA per Football Outsiders. But overall this season Sanders averages 6.2 yards per touch, which ranks No. 5 among RBs. He’ll find the sledding easier against the Seahawks middle-of-the-pack rush defense.
WR
Jarvis Landry (CLE) $6,900: The $100 saved moving down from Odell Beckham Jr. to Landry allowed me to get to Dallas Goedert at TE, and I love his potential this week. So for me, that decision made sense from a roster construction standpoint. Plus, Landry averages more FD points per game than OBJ and garnered 30 targets in the past three games. Beckham saw 28 during that same span. Miami gives up an average of 30.80 FD points per game to WRs, so both guys figure to have solid days with a good chance for a ceiling game.
TE
Dallas Goedert (PHI) $5,200: Goedert benefits from the Eagles heavy utilization of 12 personnel formation – one RB, two TEs, two WRs – that features him and Zach Ertz. He’s scored a TD and eclipsed 9 FD points in three of his last four games, and saw 20 targets during that span. His snap share jumped over 80-percent for the first time this season in Week 9 and he continued that trend in Week 11. Goedert gets a great matchup against Seattle, which allows the seventh-most FD points per game to the position.
D/ST
Washington Redskins ($3,000): Going dumpster diving this week I found the Redskins. Their price works for roster construction and that’s the main thing here. While they’re not home favorites, they do get to face a largely inexperienced QB in Jeff Driskel. The second-year pro makes his second start this season – eighth career – with Matt Stafford nursing a back injury. And while he fared well last week against the Cowboys with a 103.9 passer rating, I’m banking on his inexperience to show on the road.
Week 12 Sample Lineup
QB: Baker Mayfield (CLE) $7,500
RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) $10,500
RB: Miles Sanders (PHI) $5,600
WR: Michael Thomas (NO) $9,200
WR: Jarvis Landry (CLE) $6,900
WR: Jamison Crowder (NYJ) $6,500
TE: Dallas Goedert (PHI) $5,200
FLEX: Kareem Hunt (CLE) $5,600
D/ST: Washington Redskins ($3,000)
Week 11 Rewind
Brian Hill Chalk Week flamed out, but despite his shortcomings, I cashed in four of four 50/50 contests in Week 11. In hindsight, Hill made for a bad play on an offense that ranked No. 25 in rush DVOA entering the week. He struggled to get anything going, carrying 15 times for 30 yards and catching one pass for eight yards. While Hill and Mohamed Sanu disappointed, the Big 3 in the Week 11 stars-and-scrubs lineup delivered as advertised. Those who faded Christian McCaffrey missed out on the high score at RB, Lamar Jackson posted the second-most FD points of the slate and Michael Thomas eclipsed 20 FD points. The value plays also paid off with Derrius Guice and Ross Dwelley both finding the end zone (Dwelley scored twice).
QB: Lamar Jackson (BAL) $8,800 [33.48, 3.8x value] RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) $10,500 [24.6, 2.3x value] RB: Derrius Guice (WAS) $4,700 [13.4, 2.9x value] WR: Michael Thomas (NO) $9,000 [21.4, 2.4x value] WR: D.J. Moore (CAR) $6,000 [13.5, 2.2x value] WR: Mohamed Sanu (NE) $5,800 [2.2, 0.4x value] FLEX: Brian Hill (ATL) $5,900 [4.3, 0.7x value] TE: Ross Dwelley (SF) $4,900 [15.4, 3.1x value] D/ST: Indianapolis Colts $4,400 [10, 2.3x value]
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