This week will require more due diligence with lineups than normal given the myriad of injuries, so be ready to pivot as news breaks. The wide receiver position took a big hit in Week 14 with injuries to Mike Evans, Marvin Jones, Calvin Ridley and Alshon Jeffrey sidelining them for the season, to name a few. Their absence opens the door for players like Kenny Golladay ($7,900) to absorb a bigger target share. And with the Lions facing the pass-funnel defense of Tampa Bay, he’s a lock this week.
Meanwhile, Jameis Winston’s ($8,200) fractured hand prevented him from throwing a football all week and his status remains in doubt. If Ryan Griffin gets the nod for the Bucs then Chris Godwin ($8,400) must be faded. If Winston plays I’m willing to roll with Godwin in a cake matchup on the second-most pass-happy team in football.
Watson’s upside outweighs Winston’s
At quarterback, I’m not paying up for a gimpy Jameis Winston carrying the third-highest price tag at the position. However, I am willing to insert Deshaun Watson for the same price. Watson posted 30 FD points last week and 28 the week before. Against the Titans, in what’s projected as the highest total on the slate (51.5), he’s going to put in work. Tennessee’s middle-of-pack pass defense will be hard-pressed to stop him and I expect fireworks from both sides here. On the other side of the ball, Ryan Tannehill ($7,600) also warrants a look. He threw multiple pass TDs in each of the past four games and also brings a 30-point fantasy ceiling to this potential shootout.
Golladay in line for increased volume
Expect Kenny Golladay’s 20.4-percent target share to jump with Marvin Jones out. That expected spike also coincides with Golladay’s recent hot streak. He’s scored in his past two games and totaled 216 receiving yards, catching 10-of-13 targets. The Bucs defense ranks No. 19 in pass DVOA but No. 1 in rush DVOA, hence the funnel. That translates into Tampa Bay giving up the most FD points per game to opposing WRs (38.1) and it’s not close. Miami gives up the second-most (33.69).
With Eli Manning ($6,800) getting another start I’m rolling with Darius Slayton ($6,300). I love Slayton’s big-play potential against a Dolphins team allowing explosive pass plays at a rate of 12-percent, tied for second-highest in the league. With Manning showing his willingness to sling it in hooking up with Slayton for two long TDs last week, I’ll go back to the well here.
The point of no return: fade CMC
In the past two weeks, Christian McCaffrey ($10,400) posted two of his three worst performances on the FanDuel platform this season. He scored 19 FD points in Week 14 and 13.7 in Week 13. The two outings in which he scored fewer FD points both came against Tampa Bay’s stout rush defense. A big part of his downturn is due to decreased volume: his 14 carries against Washington tied a season-low. He saw even fewer carries last week against Atlanta (11). With the Panthers a playoff afterthought and Ron Rivera blowing in the wind, it’s time to shelf CMC in cash games.
Pivot off of CMC and make a beeline to Derrick Henry ($9,400), part running back, part beast. He’s scored at least 22 FD points in each of his past five games and amassed nine TDs and 662 rush yards during that span. The $1,000 saved from this pivot allows for optimal roster construction.
I expect Josh Jacobs ($7,700) to play but don’t trust his bum shoulder in a smash spot against the Jags. That means no salary savings in the form of Deandre Washington ($6,330). Instead, consider Ronald Jones ($5,800) against Detroit’s soft run defense. Jones, while inconsistent, will see an uptick in volume if Ryan Griffin gets the start at QB.
Punt season continues at tight end
There is a problem with paying up for TE: None of the top guys – Kelce, Kittle, Ertz – average more than 12 FD points per game yet still come with price tags in the $6,700-$7,300 range. I’d much rather spend that money on a more reliable WR and punt the position. It’s proven a strong strategy all season with value plays available each week. Week 15 is no different, and I’m rolling out Ian Thomas ($5,300) if Greg Olsen (concussion) sits. Thomas caught 5-of-10 targets for 57 yards and a TD with Olsen out last week. If Olsen plays I’d consider pivoting to TD magnet Cameron Brate ($5,200) or Jonnu Smith ($4,900).
Dumpster dive at D/ST
Don’t pay up for defense and special teams. The Patriots ($5,000) haven’t breached 10 FD points since last month against Philly are not worth the price. If you can fit them in, the Niners ($4,500) make for a solid play against Atlanta. But personally, I’m looking at the Cowboys ($3,400) at home against the Rams or the Panthers ($3,200) at Seattle.
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