After hitting 21 home runs over 805 at-bats with the Seattle Mariners during the 2014 and 2015 seasons, a trade to the Tampa Bay Rays turned Brad Miller into a power hitter. Over a career-high 152 games and 548 at-bats, Miller hit 30 home runs and drove in 81 while playing 105 games at shortstop and 39 games at first base.
Miller is slated to move to second base, where he has 13 career starts, for the Rays this season. Added multi-position eligibility is good news, but the more pressing matter is if Miller has a chance to repeat his 2016 power production. So let’s take a closer look.
Miller’s power spike last season was driven mostly by one thing. His home run/fly ball rate essentially doubled compared to 2015 (10.3 percent), to 20.4 percent. Slight increases in overall fly ball rate (36.8 percent; 31.4 percent in 2015) and percentage of hard contact (35.1 percent; 30.3 percent in 2015) helped, but good fortune fostered Miller’s power breakout.
Miller also had a significant platoon and home/road splits in 2016. 27 of his 30 home runs came off right-handed pitchers, with 22 dingers at home. But that platoon split fits with his career as a whole, with 54 of 59 career home runs against righties, so any concern specifically attached to it can be mostly set aside.
Miller is absolutely not a 30-home run hitter, so a repeat can’t be expected in 2017. But he can still be a useful power option as a middle infielder, with a handful of stolen bases mixed in, and eventual three-position eligibility boosts Miller’s fantasy value a bit.
Brad Miller 2017 Fantasy Baseball Projection: .245, 21 home runs, 72 RBI, 70 runs scored, 6 stolen bases
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
The GoingFor2 Live Podcast
