A centerpiece of the Miami Marlins’ return in the J.T. Realmuto trade two years ago, Sixto Sanchez made his major league debut last season. In seven starts, he posted a 3.46 ERA (3.50 FIP, 129 ERA+) with a 7.6 K/9 and a 2.5 BB/9 over 39 innings. He also made two postseason starts, including five shutout innings against the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series.
Over his last four starts, counting the playoffs, Sanchez allowed at least four runs three times. Over his final five outings, he had had 16 strikeouts and 14 walks over 22 innings. Over his first four starts, he had a 25:2 K/BB ratio. So hitters appeared to catch up to him some.
Looking at Sanchez’s Statcast page, the sum of the parts says he should have struck out more than 7.6 batters per nine innings last regular season. He was 70th percentile of better in fastball velocity (97th), barrel rate (70th), xERA (84th), wxOBA (84th), xSLG (81st), walk rate (70th) and xBA (76th). The black marks are fastball spin (18th percentile) and to a lesser degree curveball spin (43rd percentile), but he doesn’t throw the latter pitch very much. His changeup is his best pitch, and a power sinker (96.6 MPH average) drove a high-end ground ball rate last season (58 percent).
Strikeouts, control and lots of ground balls is a strong recipe for success. If Sanchez can push his strikeout ratio up toward where it was in Double-A during the 2019 season (8.5), or to 9.0 (as Baseball Reference’s 2021 projection for him points to; 9.1), with a BB/9 ratio in the 2.5 range and a ground ball rate north of 50 percent, a big step is looming in 2021.
Fantasy Pros’ consensus ADP has Sanchez at SP40 right now, around pick 129 overall (late 11th round in a 12-team league). If you don’t get caught up in a big win total, even pitching for a Marlins’ team that should be pretty good, there’s a lot to like here. In keeper leagues, this year is the ground floor to get in on Sanchez based on a possible innings limit. A full breakout is likely a year away.
Sixto Sanchez 2021 Projection: 11 wins, 155 innings, 3.65 ERA, 8.7 K/9 (150 strikeouts), 2.6 BB/9 (45 walks)
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Breakout Confidence: 36%
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