He’s back. On Friday, Josh Gordon was reinstated by the NFL as he gets yet another chance to play. He’ll re-join the New England Patriots, who he played 11 games for last year before leaving the team to re-focus on his health, and his immediate placement on the active/NFI list is procedural as he has to pass a physical in order to be cleared to practice.
Gordon played one game for the Cleveland Browns last year, before being traded to New England. In those 11 games in a Patriots’ uniform, he had 40 receptions for 720 yards and three touchdowns. Narrowing to Week 6, the first game he had at least five targets with the Patriots, and he had 36 catches (on 62 targets) for 638 yards and two touchdowns over nine games. His per-play numbers in a New England uniform, 18 yards per catch, 10.2 yards per target, were simply elite.
Over those aforementioned last nine games (Week 6-Week 15), Gordon was WR24 in standard and PPR leagues. His raw numbers over those nine contests project to 64 receptions for 1,134 yards over a full 16 games.
Of course Gordon has played 17 games over the last two seasons, and hasn’t played all 16 in a season since 2012 with the Browns. The last time he even played double-digit games in a season before last year (14 games in 2013), all Gordon did was lead the league in receiving yards with 1,646 on his way to being the top-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football.
The Patriots have a significant void to fill, with Rob Gronkowski retiring. In three games without Gronk last year, Gordon totaled 13 receptions for 311 yards (two 100-yard games) on 28 targets. Per game projected over a full season, that’s 69 receptions for 1,658 yards.
Some analysts see Gordon’s ceiling and potential in New England’s offense, and see the potential for a top-12 fantasy wide receiver. But it’s all projection based on short samples with him, as a repeat of 2013 somehow still seems possible.
The range of outcomes, from being cut before Week 1 to lasting the entire season without incident and producing like a WR1 for the Patriots as well as fantasy owners, is wider for Gordon than it is for anyone else. It comes down to what the most likely scenario is, and playing less than 16 games and perhaps getting no further chance in the NFL is that for Gordon.
If you took a flier on Gordon with a final draft pick or auction dollar at some point before last Friday, good for you. He has already jumped to No. 67 (perhaps higher by the time you’re reading this) in Fantasy Pros’ overall rankings, and his ADP (via Fantasy Football Calculator) has jumped three rounds in standard leagues to put him at WR46 (pick 10.05 in 12-team standard leagues) as of Monday morning.
There’s no longer any value in drafting Gordon, as the gap between risk and upside closes, and it will only get worse as he continues to rise in ADP. Anthony Miller and Tyrell Williams can be taken over a round later, with John Brown, Jamison Crowder and Michael Gallup among those who can be drafted beyond that.
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