Fantasy Football 2021: Week 11 Only Start n Sit You Will Need
So the last two weeks have been like watching Disney’s What If and wondering if there is another universe where it all makes sense. But alas, we are still here, and as the episode with Thor in Vegas (and everywhere else), it is time to clean this up and get it right (just me then?)
Going from early games to late games (shaking it up a little) for DFS purposes, keep your eyes on the Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs game and remember Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos on a bye this week!
EARLY GAMES
SAN FRANCISCO NINERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, 45 o/u, Niners -6.5
Start: Brandon Aiyuk, Wide Receiver, Niners
George Kittle is back, Deebo Samuel is ballin, and a defense that is playing better can only concentrate on so many players at a time. Aiyuk has been on the field for 49.88%, 55.93%, and 61.90% of the snaps in the last three weeks in which he has seen seven eight and four targets, respectively.
With Kittle and Samuel on their minds, Aiyuk should get his.
Sit: Laviska Shenault, Wide Receiver, Jaguars
Remember when Shenault was a thing? Those were good times.
In his last three games, Shenault has had nine receptions total and has not had over 25 receiving yards. His last taste of the end zone was in August.
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM @ CAROLINA PANTHERS, 43 o/u, Panthers -3.5
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Start: Cam Newton, Quarterback, Panthers
Is this too trendy? Eh. Newton has always had the upside of his running ability, and we see that hasn’t changed. Last week he had 17 fantasy points on eight snaps.
Newton is trending as the starter for Week 11. My only caveat is that Ron Rivera knows Newton, and well, we see how that former coach versus quarterback played out last week with Matt Ryan and Dan Quinn.
Sit: JD McKissic, Running Back, WFT
My call last week was completely and utterly wrong. I mean, seriously, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, McKissic as a no-show, and Gibson the baller WTF is happening?
MonkeyKnifeFight.com Prop Bets for the game: More of Less Prize 3x Cam Newton More or Less 224.5 passing yards/Taylor Heinicke More or Less 240.5 passing yards.
Cam Newton More or Less 19.5 fantasy points/ Terry McLaurin More or Less 14.5 fantasy points
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS, 49 o/u, Packers -2.5
Start: A.J. Dillon, Running Back, Packers
The Vikings are giving up an average of 22.5 fantasy points per game to the running back position. With the injury to Aaron Jones, Dillon moves into RB1 in the Packers backfield. Week 10 Dillon had 21 rushing attempts, 66 yards, two touchdowns, and was targeted twice.
Sit: Adam Thielen, Wide Receiver, Vikings
The Packers’ defense has only allowed eight touchdowns to the wide receiver position. Justin Jefferson has seen more targets and better production than Thielen in the last two games (11-7, 7-2 six yards for Thielen and 69 yards and a touchdown for Jefferson).
The Packers’ run defense (107.2 rushing yards/game 13th ranked) is weaker than their pass defense (202.7 passing yards allowed per game, 3rd ranked).
Prop bets @ PlayPickUp_& @GoingFor_2: Who will have the most receiving yards Week 11? Click on the link and get in the game.
DETROIT LIONS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS, 43.5 o/u, Browns -11.5
Start: D’Ernest Johnson, Running Back, Browns
This is more of a Nick Chubb watch. If Chubb clears Covid protocol, he is a must-start, but don’t relegate Johnson to your bench. Yes, his ceiling will be slightly lowered, but Detroit has given up 10 rushing touchdowns and six passing touchdowns to the running back position. They also have yielded an average of 24.9 fantasy points per game to the position.
Sit: Jared Goff, Quarterback, Lions
Stats for his last three games:
14-of-25, 114 yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
25-of-34, 222 yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
22-of-36, 268 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ BUFFALO BILLS, 50 o/u, Bills -7
Start: Dawson Knox, Tight End, Bills
Before his hand injury, Knox was the apple of Josh Allen’s eye. Last week he had one target, one reception for 17 yards, but Allen only attempted 28 passes.
With the injury to Cole Beasley, Knox should be getting back into the groove.
Sit: TY Hilton, Wide Receiver, Colts
The Bills defense has only allowed three touchdowns from the wide receiver position. Last week Hilton had five targets, one reception for five yards.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, 43 o/u, Eagles -1.5
Start: DeVonta Smith, Wide Receiver, Eagles
Smith has been targeted 12 times ( six and six) in his last two games with 172 yards and three touchdowns.
The Saints’ run defense is elite (ranked 1st allowing 72.9 rushing yards per game), but they have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
Sit: Deonte Harris, Wide Receiver, Saints
The Eagles have only allowed seven touchdowns to the wide receiver position. Harris led the Saints in yards last week (84), but he only had four targets and has not seen the end zone in three weeks.
Both Mark Ingram and Tre’Quan Smith had more targets than Harris (7), and Smith finished with a touchdown.
BETMGM.com Prop Bets for Devonta Smith: receiving yards under 57.5 -115 over 57.5 -115; receptions under 4.5 -167 over 4.5 +125
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK JETS, 44.5 o/u, Dolphins -3
Start: Myles Gaskin, Running Back, Dolphins
In his last four games, Gaskin has averaged 15.3 carries. Unfortunately, the production has not been equal to the carries, but he has the opportunity to make amends this week. The Jets have given up 17 rushing touchdowns, three receiving touchdowns, and an average of 31.6 fantasy points per game to the running back position.
Sit: Joe Flacco, Quarterback, Jets
This carousel of Jets’ quarterbacks won’t be stopping anytime soon. Now Flacco will start against the Dolphins, who, according to Next Gen Stats, used their defensive backs to blitz more than any defensive backs since 2016 (38 times in 70 snaps).
That was good enough to hold the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson to 10 total points (Baltimore averaged 25.7 points per game). The Jets are currently averaging 17.9 points per game.
DraftKingSportsBook.com Props on Joe Flacco: over/ under 225.5 passing yards -115; over 1.5 passing touchdowns +125, under 1.5 passing touchdowns +165; over/under 0.5 interceptions -115
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CHICAGO BEARS, o/u 44.5, Ravens -4.5
Start: Justin Fields, Quarterback, Bears
Fields was on a bye last week, so you may have forgotten that he has averaged 57 yards on the ground in his last four games. In the two games before the bye week, he had 148 rushing yards.
Fields is a start at quarterback for the upside his run game brings.
The Ravens have given up an average of 18.9 fantasy points per game to the quarterback That includes the rushing touchdown by Tua Tagovailoa last week and by Kirk Cousins the week before (neither quarterback as mobile as Fields).
Sit: Devonta Freeman, Running Back, Ravens
It appears Lativus Murray may return in Week 11, and this caps the potential of Freeman being fantasy-relevant. But Freeman wasn’t really doing you any fantasy favors anyway, having 35 rushing yards and zero touchdowns last week and 79 rushing yards, and one receiving touchdowns the week before.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS, o/u 44.5, Titans -10
Start: Brandin Cooks, Wide Receiver, Texans
The Titans are giving up an average of 27.9 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. This includes 14 receiving touchdowns (second-most) and an average of 162 receiving yards.
Cooks has a 91.3% snap share and a 29.7% target share for the season. He is the only Texan you are considering on your fantasy roster.
Sit: Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Titans
Yes, the Texans are allowing 136.4 rushing yards per game, and they have also given up 15 rushing touchdowns. But the question is D’Onta Foreman, Jeremy McNichols, or Peterson, who gets it?
Peterson averages 2.33 yards per carry, and he has been on the field for 33% of the offensive snaps in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, McNichols has seen his snap share go from 45% to 27%, and Foreman has seen his rise from 21% to 35%.
It is anyone’s guess who will bask in the futility of Texans’ defense, but good money is on Foreman.
AFTERNOON GAMES
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, o/u 50.5, Bengals -1
Start: Tee Higgins, Wide Receiver, Bengals
Higgins is second on the team in red-zone targets (7). The Raiders are 31st in red-zone defense.
Sit: Josh Jacobs, Running Back, Raiders
The Bengals have given up the eighth fewest rushing yards per game. But they also rank 23 in giving up over 23 fantasy points per game to the running back position.
The problem is will it be Jacobs or Kenyan Drake. Jacobs is averaging 55% offensive snap percentage, while Drake is at 40%. Last week Drake had four rushes for 16 yards while Jacobs had seven rushes for 16 yards.
PlayPicks prop bets for Tee Higgins
DALLAS COWBOYS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, o/u 56.5, Chiefs -2.5
Except for the defenses, is there actually anyone you are willing to sit in this game?
Running back, Darrel Williams has been RB4 in PPR leagues since Week 6. Ezekiel Elliott has 25 red zone rushing attempts.
Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Cee Dee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz, Dak Prescott, and Patrick Mahomes are all in play.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, o/u 48, Cardinals -2.5
Start: James Conner, Running Back, Cardinals
Chase Edmonds is still out. The Seahawks are giving up the second-most PPR points to the running back position (30.93) and the seventh-most rushing yards per game.
In his last four games, Conner has had at least one rushing touchdown and has nine targets in his last two games.
Sit: Russell Wilson, Quarterback, Seattle
This has a little to do with Wilson not looking so hot last game and a lot to do with the fact that the Cardinals are have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and the fifth-fewest passing yards per game.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, o/u 47, Chargers -6
Start: Pat Freiermuth, Tight End, Steelers
The Chargers just gave up two touchdowns to tight end Tyler Conklin in Week 10. They are giving up an average of 11.2 fantasy points per game to the tight end position and have given up seven total touchdowns to the tight end position.
Freiermuth has a 12.3% targets share and is on the field for an average of 57.3% snap share. Except for the shit show that was the Detroit Lions game, Freiermuth had two touchdowns against the Chicago Bears and one against the Cleveland Browns in his last three games.
Sit: Mike Williams, Wide Receiver, Chargers
In his first five weeks, Williams had six touchdowns on 31 receptions. In the last four weeks, he has had zero touchdowns and ten receptions. Until the problem that ails Williams is rectified, he is best on the bench.
MONDAY NIGHT GAME
NEW YORK GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, o/u 49.5, Buccaneers -11
Start: Kenny Golladay, Wide Receiver, Giants
The Buccaneers defense is ranked 22nd against the pass (3rd against the run). Golladay is back from his knee injury. Coming off the bye should be ready to attack the defense that has allowed nine receiving touchdowns and giving up an average of 23 fantasy points per game to the position.
Sit: Saquon Barkley, Running Back, Giants
It will be hard to sit Barkley if he is available, except this is an MNF game, so you might not know his availability until late Sunday. The Buccaneers give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game, the running back position (15.8).
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