It’s crunch time. Some of us are in a win or forget about it stage and well… let’s do this.
This week, the teams are on a bye: Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, and Tennessee Titans.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS, 50.5 o/u, BUCS -11
Start: Chris Godwin, Wide Receiver, Bucs:
Did you know that inside the 20-yard line, Godwin has 19 targets, five touchdowns, and a 21.8% target rate? Inside the 10-yard line, he has six targets and two touchdowns. And the Atlanta Falcons are giving up 24.3 fantasy points per game and 15 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.
Sit: Mike Davis, Running Back, Falcons:
Not sure who needs to hear this, but Davis is impotent with Cordarrelle Patterson in the lineup (and honestly, this year without too). Last week against a subpar Jacksonville Jaguars defense, Davis rushed five times for 16 yards while catching three of five targets for 25 yards. It’s simply not worth it.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS, 50.5 o/u, BENGALS -2.5
Start: Joe Mixon, Running Back, Bengals
Mixon has had two touchdowns in his last three games. The Chargers are a sieve allowing opposing running backs 22.8 average fantasy points per game.
PROP BETS MIXON: BetMGM.com has 86.5 rushing yards over/under at -115
Sit: Mike Williams, Wide Receiver, Chargers
As previously stated, it is crunch time, and Williams has been too erratic. In his last three games, he has:
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8 targets, 4 receptions, 39 yards; Week 12
6 targets, 5 receptions, 97 yards, 1 touchdown; Week 11
6 targets, 4 receptions, 33 yards; Week 10
It is also worth mentioning the last time the Bengals gave up a touchdown to the wide receiver position was Week 9.
WFT @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, 48.5o/u, RAIDERS -2.5
Start: Logan Thomas, Tight End, WFT
The Raiders’ defense allows an average of six catches and 65 yards per game to the tight end position, and they have allowed opposing tight ends eight touchdowns and 723 yards.
Thomas, in Week 12, played 66-of-84 offensive snaps and was targeted six times in his first game back.
Sit: Kenyan Drake, Running Back, Raiders
It appears that, once again, Josh Jacobs is the man in the backfield. In last week’s overtime victory, Drake only had 25 yards on seven carries and five yards on two targets.
PROP BETS KENYAN DRAKE from thelines.com: DraftKings 20.5 rushing yards -115 thelines.com suggests you bet the under
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS, 48o/u, RAMS -13
Start: Van Jefferson, Wide Receiver, Rams
Lost in all the Odell Beckham hoopla is Jefferson. However, Jefferson has averaged eight targets over the last two games, and last week he was second to Cooper Kupp in receiving yards (93) and scored a touchdown.
It also helps that the Jags are a porous defense that gives up an average of 29.4 fantasy points to the wide receiving position.
Sit: Trevor Lawrence, Quarterback, Jaguars
The Lawrence experience isn’t going as planned. Lawrence has had one touchdown pass in the last four games. He hasn’t passed for more than 230 yards since October 31, and in that time frame, he has been sacked 10 times.
It isn’t crazy to see him getting sacked half that much in this game.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
DENVER BRONCOS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 48 o/u, CHIEFS -10
Start: Javonte Williams, Running Back, Broncos
The name of the game for the Broncos is keep away, and the run game is paramount. While there may still be a running back by committee, it appears that Melvin Gordon is injured, and his game time status and playing time are in question.
Last week, Williams had 14 rushing attempts for 54 yards and one touchdown.
Sit: Darrel Williams, Running Back, Chiefs
As long as Clyde Edwards-Helaire is in the game, Williams is a non-factor. Although Williams was on the field for 54% of the offensive snaps in Week 11, he only accounted for five carries and 15 yards. Edwards-Helaire was on the field for 47% of the offensive snaps, had 12 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown.
It is CEH’s game now.
PROP BETS BETTINGPROS.COM
Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushing yards under 60.50, receiving yards over 12.50
Darrell Williams rushing yards over 28.50, receiving yards over 16.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS, 47.5 o/u, VIKINGS -7
Start: Josh Reynolds, Wide Receiver, Lions
Reynolds is reunited with Jared Goff. It seems that might be important if you are going to trust any Lions offensive player (Amon-Ra St Brown is on your radar too).
The Vikings have given up 14 touchdowns to the wide receiver position in 11 games. Last week Reynolds had three receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown.
Sit: Jared Goff, Quarterback, Lions
I know it seems weird, but seriously, are you trusting your fantasy playoff situation to Goff?
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS, 46.5 o/u, COLTS -8.5
Start: Michael Pittman, Wide Receiver, Colts
The Texans have given up the third-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position in the last six weeks. Pittman leads the Colts in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns.
Sit: David Johnson, Running Back, Texans
Even with Tyrod Taylor back, Johnson has been inept. Last week he had 10 rushes for 39 yards and two receptions for 16 yards, and he hasn’t rushed for over 40 yards this season.
Why are we still talking about him?
SAN FRANCISCO FORTY-NINERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 46.5o/u, NINERS -2.5
Start: Brandon Aiyuk, Wide Receiver, Niners
Deebo Samuel is out with an injury, which is more opportunity for Aiyuk. Last week, Aiyuk led the team with three receptions for 91 yards on six targets.
Sit: Russell Wilson, Quarterback, Seahawks
The Niners have given up less than 13 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks since Week 9. Wilson has been mediocre at best, scoring his best fantasy outing last week with 19.5 fantasy points, his best outing since Week 4.
TheLines.com Prop Bets Russell Wilson
Passing yards bet under/over 229.5 at -115
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CHICAGO BEARS, 45.5o/u, CARDINALS -7
Start: Christian Kirk, Wide Receiver, Cardinals
The Bears have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position, and they are especially vulnerable to the slot position, and that is where Kirk lines up 43% of the time.
Sit: Cole Kmet, Tight End, Bears
In his last three games, Kmet has finished as TE6, TE41, and TE9. This week he goes against a Cardinals team that has only allowed 4.5 fantasy points per game to the tight end position. The roller coaster continues.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK JETS, 45.5o/u, EAGLES -7
Start: Boston Scott, Running Back, Eagles
The Eagles run the ball on 65% of their offensive plays in the last three games. The Jets have given up the third-most rushing yards to the running back position. Scott led the Eagles in carries last week with 15 for 64 yards and a touchdown.
Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts are nursing ankle injuries that open Scott’s opportunities. Keep an eye on the injury report as Scott entered Friday with an “illness” designation and did not practice Thursday.
Sit: Zach Wilson, Quarterback, Jets
For the season, Wilson has thrown four touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Enough said.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS, 44.5o/u, RAVENS -3.5
Start: Pat Freiermuth, Tight End, Steelers
The Ravens defense is giving up an average of 9.5 fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Freiermuth has played on over 75% of the offensive snaps and scored five touchdowns in his last five games.
Sit: Ben Roethlisberger, Quarterback, Steelers
It is a divisional game, so anything is possible. But last week, in the divisional game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Roethlisberger was 24-of-41 for 263 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. And for those rushing yards, don’t count on it.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS, 44.5o/u, BILLS -3
Start: Matt Breida, Running Back, Buffalo
Buffalo has a running problem in stopping the run and generating a run game. Enter Brieda. Since Week 10, Breida has had three touchdowns and has earned a stat line of 17-105-1 in carries and 6-67-2 in receiving.
The Patriots defense is third against the pass ( allowing an average of 200.9 passing yards per game) but 20th against the run, giving up an average of 115.8 rushing yards per game.
Sit: Nelson Agholor, Wide Receiver, Patriots
Agholor has scored three touchdowns and is a boom or bust play against a Bills defense that is second against the pass allowing an average of 178.5 passing yards per game (182.7 in their last three games).
MonkeyKnifeFight.com Prop Bets
More or Less Josh Allen 269.5 passing yards; Mac Jones 230.5 passing yards
More or Less Josh Allen 23.5 fantasy points; Mac Jones 15.5 fantasy points
NEW YORK GIANTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS, 41.5o/u, DOLPHINS -2.5
Start: Myles Gaskin, Running Back, Dolphins
Gaskin averages 11.5 rush attempts and 4.5 targets per game, and he also has 30 red zone carries. The Giants give up 127.7 rushing yards per game and 19 average fantasy points to the running back position.
Embed from Getty ImagesSit: Daniel Jones, Quarterback, Giants
Will he or won’t he? Jones has a neck injury that may or may not keep him from playing Week 13. The NFL Network is reporting that he is out. New offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens is optimistic he will play.
So if Jones plays, he will be without Sterling Shepard and Kardarius Toney against the Dolphins defense, who have 16 sacks and 10 turnovers in their last four games.
The Giants offense has nine sacks and five turnovers in their last four games, with a relatively healthy Jones.
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