NFL 2021: Fantasy Football Week 8 Only Sit n Start You Need
It is Week 8 and the trends and stats are starting to make sense in fantasy football. The sit n starts, as usual, knows you will start your studs (although who is a stud is getting a little murky).
The lines and over/under are from BetMGM.com.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS Line Started 54.5 now 55, Dallas -2
SIT: Dalton Schultz, Tight End, Dallas
The Vikings have not allowed a touchdown to the tight-end position. This includes going against TJ Hockenson, Gerald Everett, Maxx Williams, and CJ Uzomah.
START: Kirk Cousins, Quarterback, Minnesota
The Cowboys are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (23.7).
Cousins has thrown 13 touchdowns and two interceptions and is coming off a bye,
NEW YORK GIANTS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 52.5 o/u, Chiefs -10 (MONDAY NIGHT GAME)
SIT: Kansas City Chiefs Defense
I feel that this is an easy way out…but the Chiefs’ defense is a hot mess. They are giving up 275.7 average passing yards per game (26th ranked) and 128.9 rushing yards per game (27th ranked).
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START: Daniel Jones, Quarterback, New York Giants
The Chiefs are allowing the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (26.4).
Jones has played well without the full assortment of pieces surrounding him. This Monday, it looks like they will all be back.
In addition to surrendering the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position, the Chiefs are giving up the seventh-most passing yards (275.7) while allowing an average of 1.9 passing touchdowns a game.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, 50.5 o/u, Bucs was -5 now Bucs -5.5
SIT: OJ Howard, Cameron Brate, Tight Ends, Tampa Bay
The Saints have not allowed a touchdown to the tight end position. This includes going up against Robert Tonyan, Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, and Ricky-Seals Jones.
START: Jameis Winston, Quarterback, New Orleans
Everyone knows about the Buccaneers’ strength against the run. But did you know that the Buccaneers are giving up 264.7 passing yards per game (23rd ranked) and allowing a league-worst 28.3 average completions per game?
Winston has 226 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions, 279 yards, four touchdowns, one interception, 222 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions in his last three games.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, o/u began 49 now 51, Indianapolis -1
SIT: Mo Alie-Cox, Tight End, Indianapolis
The Titans are giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position (4.3). For the season, they have only allowed a tight end to see the end zone two times.
START: AJ Brown, Wide Receiver, Tennessee
The Colts are currently allowing an average of 12.6 receptions, 164.9 average receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns to the wide receiver position.
Last week Brown was on the receiving end of nine targets, eight receptions, 133 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS, o/u began 48 now 49.5, Buffalo -10.5
SIT: Tua Tagovailoa, Quarterback, Miami
I hope that Tagovailoa plays well with all the trade rumors surrounding him. He has played well since his return from the rib injury, and in his last two games, he has six touchdowns and three interceptions.
But those stats were against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Atlanta Falcons.
This week he will play the Buffalo Bills coming off a bye week. The Bills are giving up the least amount of fantasy points to the quarterback position (11.8) and have accounted for 10 interceptions and five touchdowns to the opposing quarterback.
START: Zack Moss, Running Back, Buffalo
The Dolphins have given up eight rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns to the running back position.
Moss has 17 red zone rushes with three touchdowns. (Devin Singletary has 10 red zone rushes with zero touchdowns). Moss also has three red-zone targets and one receiving touchdown.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DETROIT LIONS, o/u began 48 now 47.5, Philadelphia was -3 now -3.5
SIT: Boston Scott, Running Back, Philadelphia
This is a diluted Sophie’s Choice right? If you believe that the Eagles will predominately run the ball Scott is your man ( picking up whatever Jalen Hurts leaves over). However, if you believe that the Eagles will need to throw to stay in the game Gainwell is your man.
You see where I am leaning.
START: Kenneth Gainwell, Running Back, Philadelphia
While it is true that the Eagles only run the ball on average 23.4 times a game (28th), Gainwell’s value also is in the passing game.
He has 31 targets for a 13.7% target share. Last week he was targeted eight times with four receptions, 41 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown.
The Lions have allowed six rushing touchdowns and six receiving touchdowns to the running back position.
PROP BET: Jared Goff over/under passing yards 245.5 (This is below his season average of 253 yards per game)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, o/u began 47.5 now 48.5, Chargers -5.5
SIT: Jared Cook, Tight End, Los Angeles
When last seen in the demolition that was the 6-34 drumming by the Baltimore Ravens, Cook performed admirably. He finished the day with seven targets, four receptions, 25 yards, and a touchdown. Baltimore, of course, is giving up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, including a whopping six touchdowns to the position.
This is the Patriots’ week, and they are giving up the fifth-fewest fantasy points (3.9) to the tight end position. That includes two total touchdowns in seven weeks to the position.
START: Hunter Henry, Tight End, New England
Henry is on the field for 70.8% of the offensive snaps, and he has seen 92 snaps in the slot. His target share is 13.1%, and he has 32 targets. He also has scored a touchdown in each of his last four games.
What is better is that the Chargers are giving up the most fantasy points to the tight end position (12.3) while surrendering five touchdowns to the position so far this season.
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ HOUSTON TEXANS, o/u was 47 now 47.5, Los Angeles -14.5
SIT: Davis Mills, Quarterback, Houston
There is some quiet chatter that Tyrod Taylor could be under center Sunday. It changes things only slightly. The Rams are yielding sixth-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position (17.4), including hauling in 10 interceptions to seven touchdowns.
START: Darrell Henderson, Running Back, Los Angeles
In what should have been a smash start last week against the Detroit Lions, Henderson only managed 45 yards on 15 carries.
This is another potential smash play for Henderson. The Rams are favored by two touchdowns, implying Henderson should see plenty of time on the field.
Also, Houston has allowed seven rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown from the running back position. They are currently giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to the position (21.1).
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS, o/u 46, Atlanta -3
SIT: Sam Darnold, Quarterback, Carolina
Is anyone trusting Sam Darnold right now? In his last three games, he has thrown five interceptions and two touchdowns.
Atlanta is generous to a fault to the quarterback position, giving up an average of 27 fantasy points to the position. Is it worth it?
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW YORK JETS, o/u was 43.5 now 43, Cincinnati was -9.5 now -10.5
SIT: Mike White, Quarterback, New York
This is just a reminder that you don’t want to play any Jets quarterback, whether White or Joe Flacco.
The Bengals only allow an average of 18 fantasy points a game while collecting five interceptions to seven touchdowns.
START: CJ Uzomah, Tight End, Cincinnati
The Bengals offense is dominated by Ja’Marr Chase, but don’t sleep on Uzomah. He has 41 snaps in the slot and has seen 19 targets (9.2% target share).
In his last four games, he has five touchdowns, and the Jets have given up three touchdowns to the tight end position while also surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points to the position (9.3).
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, o/u was 43.5 now 44, Seattle was -3.5 now -3
SIT: Tyler Lockett, Wide Receiver, Seattle
This, unfortunately, has more to do with Geno Smith than with Jacksonville.
In Smith’s last two starts, Lockett has two receptions in each game and has not surpassed 40 receiving yards or seen the end zone. Granted, this was against both the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints defense, but have you seen anything that makes it seem it will be different going forward?
START: James Robinson, Running Back, Jacksonville
The Seahawks have allowed five rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns to the running back position. This while also giving up the third-most fantasy points to the position (19.4).
Last week they held Alvin Kamara to 51 rushing yards on 20 carries. They also allowed him 128 receiving yards and a touchdown on 10 receptions.
WFT @ DENVER BRONCOS, o/u was 43.5 now 44, Denver -3.5
SIT: Taylor Heinicke, Quarterback, Washington
- 20-of-41, 248 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions
- 24-of-39, 182 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
- 25-of-37, 268 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
Those are Heinicke’s stats for his last three games. And now he will play the Broncos, who are 10th in passing yards allowed per game (224.1), and the third-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position (16).
START: Teddy Bridgewater, Quarterback, Denver
On the flip side, the WFT gives up the most passing yards per game (300.6) and the most fantasy points to the quarterback position (31).
Bridgewater has thrown seven touchdowns and five interceptions in his last three games.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS, o/u was 42.5 now 42, Cleveland -3.5
SIT: Case Keenum, Quarterback, Cleveland
There is the possibility that Baker Mayfield makes a start. It doesn’t matter.
Cleveland is second in rushing attempts per game (32.4) and 29th in passing attempts (29.9).
The Steelers have been thrashed on the ground, and it appears Nick Chubb will make his return.
START: Diontae Johnson, Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh
Johnson is on the field for 87.4% of the offensive snaps. He also has 50 targets and a 28.6% target share.
The Browns are giving up an average of 12.6 receptions, 174 yards, and nine touchdowns to the wide receiver position.
SAN FRANCISCO NINERS @ CHICAGO BEARS, o/u was 40.5, now 39.5, Niners were -3.5 Niners -4
SIT: Jimmy Garoppolo, Quarterback, San Francisco
The Bears defense is only giving up 219.7 passing yards per game (7th ranked). They held Tom Brady to 211 passing yards (albeit four touchdowns), Aaron Rodgers to 195 passing yards ( two touchdowns), Derek Carr to zero touchdowns, and 206 passing yards.
Garoppolo has not had over 260 passing yards since the first week of the year. He also had four interceptions, three fumbles, and only six touchdowns in his five starts.
START: Khalil Herbert, Running Back, Chicago
The Bears average 29.1 rushing attempts per game (8th ranked) and run the ball on 49.6% of their offensive plays (third-most).
In three weeks, Herbert has 272 yards and a touchdown.
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