RB James Conner (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 4th Year
2019 Stats: 116 carries for 464 yards, 4 TD; 34 receptions for 251 yards, 3 TD
In 2018, as Le’Veon Bell held out for what would be the entire season, James Conner stepped in as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ No. 1 running back. In 13 games, he had 215 carries for 973 yards and 12 touchdowns while adding 55 catches (on 71 targets) for 497 yards and one more score. He finished as RB6 in full PPR.
Through Week 8 last year, despite only topping 60 rushing yards once, Conner was RB9 in full PPR and RB12 in standard scoring.
Conner suffered a shoulder injury in that Week 8 game against the Dolphins, which sidelined him for two games. Then he aggravated the shoulder injury in Week 11 against the Browns, and missed three more games. He played in Week 15 and 16, then a thigh injury in Week 16 led to him missing Week 17.
All told from Week 9-17, in three games played, Conner had a total of 19 carries for 84 yards with five catches for 15 yards on seven targets, which tumbled him all the way to RB33 in full PPR for the season.
In addition to already having Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels being Conner, the Steelers drafted Anthony McFarland in the fourth round of April’s draft. But the team’s history of using a bell cow back is there, assuming said guy stays healthy. Head coach Mike Tomlin has full faith in Conner being the featured guy.
“I’m a feature runner type guy by mentality,” Tomlin said when asked if running back will be a position by committee this season. “I think that if you have a featured runner, it gives them an opportunity to drop a stake in the ground and allows others to rally around him. It gives you a set of core phase run plays that he specializes in, and you find a rhythm.”
Red zone work should be mostly Conner’s in any arrangement of backfield work, and the Steelers’ offense will be better this year as long as Ben Roethlisberger is healthy all season. In 2018, 17 of Conner’s 34 red zone carries came from inside the 5-yard line.
Even in his best season thus far, Conner missed three games and didn’t get to 1,000 rushing yards. He needed carry volume, the lion’s share of the money carries around the goal line and a good helping of passing game volume to be a top-10 fantasy running back. If he loses a piece of any one of those things, to McFarland, Snell and Samuels respectively perhaps, the chances for a bounce back go down. And that leaves out the practical expectation he’ll miss a couple games.
In 12-team full PPR, via Fantasy Football Calculator, Conner’s ADP in RB20 right now (pick 3.12). In 12-team standard, he’s RB16 (pick 3.05).
The level of confidence anyone has in Conner bouncing back this year is rooted in these questions.
Can he play 12 or 13 games (at least) unscathed? How much of a threat will McFarland be right away? If the upward trend in his ADP continues, will you be willing to draft him as your RB1? For me, the answers to those questions are-#1. I doubt it. #2. Maybe not a lot right away, but over time it’s in play. #3. No.
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2020 Projection: 200 carries for 841 yards, 6 TD; 35 receptions for 310 yards, 1 TD
Bounceback Confidence Level: 20%
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