Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Chase Edmonds

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RB Chase Edmonds (AZ)

2020 Stats: 97 carries for 448 yards, 1 TD; 53 receptions for 402 yards, 4 TD

Propped up by quarterback Kyler Murray (819 yards and 11 touchdowns), the Arizona Cardinals had the NFL’s seventh-best rushing attack in 2020. Take out Murray though, and you’re left with volume-based production from Kenyan Drake (955 yards and 10 touchdowns) and 4.6 yards per carry from Chase Edmonds at the running back position. Edmonds did seize the passing down role, to the tune of 53 catches (third on the team).

The Cardinals signed A.J. Green and drafted Rondale Moore to add to their wide receiver group this offseason. Moore’s strengths as a receiver may siphon some targets from Edmonds. Drake left for the Las Vegas Raiders in free agency, and he was eventually replaced by former Steeler James Conner.

Conner had over 1,400 total yards with 55 catches and 12 rushing touchdowns in a breakout season for Pittsburgh in 2018. But since then he has looked ordinary, along with being banged up a lot. Hence why he remained available into April, and landed a cheap one-year deal with the Cardinals.

The Cardinals had to add someone at running back. For Edmonds’ optimists in fantasy this year, it’s far better it was Conner than one of the top handful of running backs in the 2021 draft class.

Edmonds technically made two starts last season, but as a practical matter it was one-Week 9 against the Miami Dolphins when Drake was out. In a high-scoring game (34-31 in favor of Miami) but a fairly tough matchup for a running back, Edmonds had 25 carries for 70 yards and three catches (on three targets) for 18 yards. He was an easy plug-and-play that week, with a top-20 range finish among running backs (RB19 in standard scoring, RB21 in both full and half-point PPR). But expectations, right or wrong, were higher than that. Some fantasy managers surely had visions of Edmonds’ across-the-board RB1 finish in Week 7 of 2019 against the New York Giants (27 carries for 126 yards, three touchdowns; two catches for 24 yards). 

One way or another, Edmonds was not likely to step into a lot of goal line work as the Cardinals’ No. 1 running back this year. Murray will continue to vulture a chunk of rushing scores, and Conner is better-suited for short yardage and goal line. 

Edmonds finished last season as RB25 in full-PPR and RB28 in half-PPR (RB30 in standard). From Week 7-15, the peak of his work before a hip injury in Week 16 carried into Week 17, he was RB17 in full PPR and RB24 in standard scoring.

Arizona’s signing of Conner, if only based on his name, put the brakes on the Edmonds’ breakout train for 2021. But Conner has to prove he can stay available, and that he’s more than 4.0-yard per carry runner with no juice. Make no mistake, Conner is taking the Drake role in the Cardinals’ backfield. Just without inexplicable 200-plus carry volume, if Kliff Kingsbury knows what’s good for him (and the Arizona offense). Drake’s 239 carries last year were seventh-most in the league, and if he hadn’t missed a game he likely would’ve finished with the fourth-most.

That’s not to say Edmonds is going to be a 200-carry back. But if there’s 300 carries to split between he and Conner he should get a majority share (at least), and 200 touches feels like a mortal lock.

Via Fantasy Football Calculator, Edmonds is coming in as RB28 in 12-team PPR mocks right now. That seems about right, until you see who’s around him in ADP within a round or so.

RB26-Ronald Jones (pick 5.08)
RB27-David Johnson (pick 6.03)
RB28-Edmonds (pick 6.05)
RB29-A.J. Dillon (pick 6.11)
RB30-Leonard Fournette (pick 6.12)
RB31-Kenyan Drake (pick 7.02)

Of the six running backs above, which would you like to have as a RB3/flex in PPR? Jones and Fournette will be hard to predict week-to-week in the Buccaneers’ backfield, barring an injury to one of them. Dillon may get more work and he’s intriguing if Aaron Jones were to go down, but that’s it. Drake is behind Josh Jacobs in the Raiders’ backfield, and even if Jon Gruden intends to use him as a pass catcher a lot there’s not a lot of upside to consider in a draft. Then there’s Edmonds, with a path to a lot of touches with the proven surplus value provided by a big chunk of them being receptions.

It will be a surprise if Edmonds gets to double-digit total touchdowns this year, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. How about 200-225 touches, 1,100 total yards and 50 catches? The big picture marks will change with a 17-game season in 2021, but a back with that kind of production and a handful of touchdowns would’ve been a low-end RB1 in full PPR for 2020. I’m going there for an Edmonds breakout this year.

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2021 Projection: 170 carries for 785 yards, 5 TD; 51 receptions for 450 yards, 2 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 75%

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