RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)
2020 Stats: 181 carries for 803 yards, 4 TD; 36 receptions for 297 yards, 1 TD
With the 32nd pick in the 2020 draft, the Kansas City Chiefs made Clyde Edwards-Helaire the first running back off the board. The Chiefs are obviously a nice fantasy landing spot, and then Damien Williams opted out. In concert with that, Edwards-Helaire went from possible reach as a second-round pick in PPR drafts to RB5 in PPR mocks by the time the season came around.
Edwards-Helaire started his NFL career with 25 carries for 138 yards and a touchdown against the Houston Texans. But the primary memory from that game is how he was repeatedly stuffed at the goal line, with 10 red zone carries and six carries inside the 5-yard line without a score.
Over the first five game last season, Edwards-Helaire rushed for -1 yard on nine goal-to-go carries. Then the Chiefs signed Le’Veon Bell. With Bell going through COVID-19 protocols and unavailable in Week 6 against the Buffalo Bills, “CEH” had 161 yards on 26 carries along with four catches for eight yards.Â
From Week 1-6, Edwards-Helaire was RB12 in standard scoring and RB11 in full PPR. Over the following three games, Bell had almost many carries as he did (16 vs. 19).Â
After a Week 10 bye, Edwards-Helaire had 15 or more touches and more than 75 total yards in three of his next four games. Another harsh memory for his fantasy managers came in Week 13, when he was battling stomach flu, was active and did not play. A leg injury in Week 15 cost him the final two regular season games and the Chiefs’ Divisional Round game against the Cleveland Browns.
Edwards-Helaire scored against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, but the rest of his stat line (six carries for seven yards) was nothing to write home about. He then had nine carries for 64 yards and two catches for 23 yards in the Super Bowl, as he totaled 66 playoff snaps over two games.
As Ian Hartitz of Pro Football Focus cited, the Chiefs’ offensive line was not particularly good at creating running lanes last year. But they aggressively addressed it this offseason, signing left guard Joe Thuney and center Austin Blythe, trading for Orlando Brown to step in at left tackle and taking one of the top centers in this year’s draft class (Creed Humphrey). Former Bear Kyle Long came out of retirement. Guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif is coming back after opting out last season. And 2020 third-round pick Lucas Niang is set to step in at right tackle after opting out last year too.Â
Combined better health with an offensive line that is loaded with talent and depth, and Edwards-Helaire will be better. Damien Williams is gone in free agency, and Bell is not coming back. Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson, Elijiah McGuire and Jerick McKinnon remain to compete for snaps behind Edwards-Helaire.
When it was all said and done, Edwards-Helaire had 1,100 total yards on 16.7 touches per game as a rookie. That would’ve projected to 267 touches over 16 games, and 284 touches (rounding up) over 17 games as we move to a 17-game slate in 2021. In three of his 13 games (Week 7-9), remember, he totaled just 26 touches. Narrow to the 10 remaining games, and he averaged 19.1 touches per game in those.
According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Edwards-Helaire is coming in at RB17 and an early third-round pick in 12-team standard and full PPR. Fantasy Pros’ current consensus rankings has him in that same range (RB16 in full PPR). To say I’m buying at that ADP would be a massive understatement.
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The arrow is pointing up for Edwards-Helaire heading into his second season. His path to the lead back role in a top-end offense feels more clear than it was last season, and the Chiefs’ offensive line will be a lot better. Even with other mouths to feed in the Kansas City offense, he had high touch volume last year. Add in touchdown correction, and there’s a path to finishing as the overall RB1 in fantasy this year.
A top-10 finish is practically ordained for a talented, healthy back in Andy Reid‘s offense. Via Hartitz, before Damien Williams in 2019 and Edwards-Helaire last year, so the trend isn’t good, the No. 1 back in Reid’s offense was a top-10 fantasy running back in fantasy in eight of nine seasons from 2010-2018 (top-5 five times in that span). The lone exception was Spencer Ware in 2016. From 2004-2018, the No. 1 back for Reid was a top-10 fantasy running back in all but two seasons.
Now into my….sixth season? doing breakout candidates here at Going For 2, I’ve never given someone a 100 percent breakout confidence level. Even 85-90 percent has been rare, I think. I almost went all the way to 100 on Edwards-Helaire, but I stopped short.Â
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2021 Projection: 240 carries for 1,105 yards, 8 TD; 45 receptions for 408 yards, 2 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 90%
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