TE Irv Smith (MN), 3rd Season
2020 Stats: 30 receptions, 365 yards, 5 TD
Normally I wait to do fantasy football breakout candidates until right after the draft, and that’s when I’ll really get going on them this year. But Minnesota Vikings tight end Irv Smith has been on the radar, and this week’s move to release Kyle Rudolph opens the door for him to be the No. 1 tight end in Minnesota.
Rudolph missed the final four games last season with a foot injury. Over that span (Week 14-17), Smith was TE3 in standard leagues (TE4 in full point PPR). Narrow to Week 14-16, the rankings are the same.
Smith had two games where he scored two touchdowns last season. He topped 50 yards in four of his 13 games, with more than 6.5 PPR points six times total. For the season, via Player Profiler, he was a top-15 tight end in yards per catch (12.2;eighth), yards per target (8.5; eighth), route participation (73 percent; 14th) and average target distance (8.3; 10th). He also saw a fair amount of action in the slot (108 snaps, according to Rotowire), and the Vikings could use him as their de facto No. 3 receiver.
The Vikings used multiple tight ends a little less last season (34 percent total), and Tyler Conklin is now that second tight end unless they inexplicably draft someone highly. In any case, Smith’s path to being the No. 1 tight end with a target total around 85 or 90 will not be (should not be) blocked.
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The threshold of a breakout fantasy season for Smith in 2021 is pretty simple-a top-10 tight end. The scoring mark for that last year, TE10 in full PPR through Week 17, was 149.1 fantasy points (Hayden Hurst). Numbers-wise, Hurst had 56 receptions for 571 yards and six touchdowns. The touchdown number feel like a lock for Smith. Doubling his 2020 catch total is not out of the question, and his yardage total would of course go up in kind.
Projection: 61 receptions for 665 yards, 7 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 67%
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