Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Jerry Jeudy

WR Jerry Jeudy (DEN)

2020 Stats: 52 receptions for 856 yards, 3 TD

With the 15th pick in the 2020 draft, the Denver Broncos made Jerry Jeudy the second wide receiver selected. A Week 1 torn ACL for Courtland Sutton made the Alabama product the team’s No. 1 wide receiver, and he led the team in targets (113; second-most among rookie wide receivers).

The inconsistency of Drew Lock, and four games he essentially missed, hampered Jeudy greatly. According to Pro Football Focus, he had a league-high 26 uncatchable targets with a league-high 14 uncatchable deep targets. Add that to 12 drops, according to PFF, and that’s a ton of missed production.

So as an easy residual, Jeudy had the fifth-most air yards in the league last year (according to Airyards.com). Player Profiler gave him the sixth-most air yards, and the second-most unrealized air yards (965). Air Yards.com’s number gives Jeudy 1,023 unrealized air yards in 2020.

Jeudy finished his rookie season strongly, with seven catches for 140 yards in Week 17 against the Raiders. His season-high for targets (15) came in Week 16 against the Chargers, on his way to six catches for 61 yards. He also had five drops in that game, according to PFF.

The Broncos did not draft a quarterback, but they did trade for Teddy Bridgewater during draft week. A competition between he and Lock for the starting job is coming. Fantasy managers who are optimistic about the ceiling for the Broncos’ passing game should be rooting for Lock in that battle.

The elephant in the room for the Broncos is a possible trade for Aaron Rodgers. He wants out of Green Bay, and the Packers are thus far holding the line they aren’t going to trade him. The Broncos have emerged as a top rumored suitor, with the expected answers from GM George Paton about being happy with his current quarterbacks.

In trying to project Jeudy’s second season, there’s a case for three different production levels based on who his quarterback might be. From high to low it clearly would go Rodgers, Lock, Bridgewater. Sutton’s return, expected for Week 1, might be as helpful as it would also reduce Jeudy’s target share a bit. If Denver’s offense improves on third down (26th in the league last year), that will be good for everybody.

Jeudy finished as a WR4 all the way around as a rookie. If he had converted roughly one-third of the production he didn’t get to bad throws and drops, he would have been a WR2. That’s the range I’m projecting him into for 2021, with his high-level route-running to raise the floor if Bridgewater is the Broncos’ starting quarterback.

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Jerry Jeudy Projection: 75 receptions for 1,095 yards, 7 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 68%

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