WR N’Keal Harry (New England Patriots) | 2nd Year
2019 Stats: 12 receptions for 105 yards, 2 TD; five carries for 49 yards
After a productive three-year run at Arizona State, with 213 receptions for 2,889 yards and 22 TD and back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, N’Keal Harry was taken in the first round (32nd overall) by the New England Patriots in the 2019 draft.
An ankle injury in the preseason landed Harry on IR, and he didn’t play until Week 11. He never got to 30 yards or had more than three catches in any game. But he led the team in targets in Week 17 with seven, with two red zone targets. Of his 24 targets, six came in the red zone. In the Patriots’ playoff loss to Tennessee, Harry led the team with seven targets.
With Tom Brady gone, the Patriots are turning to Jarrett Stidham under center. A lack of firepower was clear in New England last year, and the passing game was Julian Edelman (100 catches), James White (72 catches) and little else. Smells like an opportunity for someone, even with a new and unproven quarterback.
In his last two games, counting the playoff game, Harry averaged seven targets and 1.5 red zone targets per game. A numberFire cites, he also averaged 1.5 downfield targets (16-plus yards) per game in those last two games.
Through Week 1-Week 16 last year, numberFire also gives us the list of 16 wide receivers who averaged at least 7.0 targets per game with at least one downfield and red zone target per game. Perhaps you’ve heard of these guys-Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Edelman, Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, Sterling Shepard, Cooper Kupp, D.J. Chark, Alshon Jeffery, Courtland Sutton, Preston Williams, Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones.
A two-game sample obviously can’t be confidently projected out. But Harry is easy to project for 80-90 targets this year, with the potential for a little more. He’s in prime position for a lot of red zone looks, and plenty of downfield targets should come too. There’s not much competition for him in either of the latter two areas.
Harry is currently coming at WR61 in ADP (pick 14.05, 12-team full PPR via Fantasy Football Calculator), and Fantasy Pros standard scoring rankings have him at WR61 too.
The unknown of Stidham puts a ceiling on the entire New England passing game until shown otherwise. So it’s hard to have confidence in Harry putting together a breakout into WR2 territory. But a potential WR3, with slightly more impact in PPR formats, at the discount of a WR5/WR6 on draft day, is well worth a long look. In dynasty leagues, if you’re so inclined, this is the year to get in on Harry.
2020 Projection: 60 receptions for 808 yards, 6 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 50%
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