Through Week 12 this season (11 games), Matthew Stafford is QB16 in fantasy. His No. 1 wide receiver, Kenny Golladay (hip), seems to be headed for a fifth straight missed game in Week 13.
From Week 7-Week 12, Stafford threw for at least 276 yards in four of six games with multiple passing touchdowns twice. He registered as QB11 over that stretch.
With the firing of Matt Patricia, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has taken over as the Lions’ interim head coach. It’s hard to say if that will be meaningful for fantasy, but an early sign is promising.
Taylor Decker said Darrell Bevell preached "pace" today, something he's said often to the offense.
— Michael Rothstein (@mikerothstein) December 2, 2020
The Lions are a mid-tier team in the league in offensive pace (13th) and plays per game (18th) so far this season. So even a push into the top-12 or top half of the league in both categories would be a solid step, and good news for Stafford.
In Week 13 Stafford faces the Chicago Bears, who are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks (16.72 per game; Yahoo! scoring). Following that is Week 14 against the Green Bay Packers, who are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks (Yahoo! scoring; 17.36 per game).
But, Chicago has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five straight games. Green Bay has allowed three touchdown passes in back-to-back games. Going back further, they Packers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns or 288-plus passing yards in five of their last seven (both twice). The exceptions over that seven-game stretch were rookie Jake Luton (Week 10), and Kirk Cousins when he had 14 pass attempts in Week 8.
Then in Week 15 Stafford will face the Tennessee Titans, who enter Week 13 allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (21.68 per game; Yahoo! scoring). That has been skewed some by allowing three rushing touchdowns to Colts backup Jacoby Brissett in two of their last three games. But the Titans are one of six teams allowing more than 275 raw passing yards per game so far this season, while ceding the second–most pass attempts per game opposing quarterbacks (39.8). Tennessee’s 11 interceptions are in the top half of the league, but just two have come over their last five games.
In Week 16 Stafford gets what might be easy to perceive as a tough matchup. But the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now edged into the bottom-12 of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (Yahoo! scoring). Facing Patrick Mahomes in Week 12 (462 yards and three touchdowns) will do that to you. But the Buccaneers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in six straight games, to a wide swath of quarterbacks (Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Jared Goff and Mahomes).
If nothing else, the games against the Packers, Titans and Buccaneers bring the promise of volume for Stafford. The Packers and Buccaneers games are at home indoors, and Tennessee in December is unlikely to be particularly rough weather.
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Stafford has been playing with an injury to his throwing thumb, but he threw the ball 42 times in Week 12 and doesn’t seem likely to miss any games at this point. As long as he’s on the field, he’s in line to least maintain as a low-end QB1 from here through Week 16. In looking at his ownership rates, if you need an option it’s worth checking to see if Stafford has been dropped in your league.
Stafford Yahoo! Ownership: 57%
Stafford ESPN Ownership: 65.9%
Stafford NFL.com Ownership: 49%
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