After a report they were looking at trading for Amari Cooper, the Dallas Cowboys pulled the trigger and met the Oakland Raiders rumored asking price of a first-round pick on Monday. The two-time Pro Bowler is having a second straight disappointing season, with 22 receptions for 280 yards and one touchdown through six games. He has been boom-or-bust again, with 18 catches for 244 yards in two of those games and two catches or fewer in the other four. As expected, 22 of his 32 targets on the season have come in those two big games.
Cooper’s decline over the last season and a half has mirrored that of Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr. Dak Prescott is not a substantial upgrade, but the Cowboys need a proverbial No. 1 wide receiver and now they have one if only by pedigree.
Jon Gruden professed that Cooper would be the “main vein’ of the Raiders’ passing game during the offseason. But for the most part, perhaps due to Carr’s shortcomings along with drawing the opposition’s No. 1 corner, that did not happen consistently.
Amari Cooper’s target share should be on the rise with reports that he’s been traded to Dallas pic.twitter.com/B2jABF3UE0
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 22, 2018
Cooper has been a volume-driven wide receiver. In 19 career games with 30 or fewer receiving yards, including four this year already, he has averaged 4.15 targets per game. In 33 other games, he has averaged 9.1 targets per game.
From a fantasy point perspective (h/t to Dave Richard of CBS Sports), Cooper has reached double-digits in all 11 games in his career in which he has had 11 or more targets. Drop that to 8-10 targets, and Cooper has gotten double-digit fantasy points three times in 17 games. Going down further to seven or fewer targets, and Cooper has reached double-digit fantasy points five times in 25 games.
Dallas has a bye in Week 8, which will allow Cooper to get in a new playbook and work with Prescott before playing a game. From Week 9-Week 16, the Cowboys face the Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles (Week 10 and Week 14), Atlanta Falcons (Week 11), Washington Redskins (Week 12), New Orleans Saints (Week 13), Indianapolis Colts (Week 15) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 16).
The Saints, Buccaneers, Falcons and Eagles are the four worst fantasy defenses against wide receivers right now (ESPN PPR scoring), and the Titans (11th-worst) and Redskins (14th-worst) aren’t far behind. For good measure the Colts allowed 61 catches to wide receivers and five touchdowns to the position from Week 4-Week 6, before facing the Buffalo Bills’ inept offense in Week 7.
As a practical matter Cooper can only improve from here on out this season, as he’s currently WR60 in ESPN PPR leagues. The opportunity is there, along with some nice matchups coming over the next several weeks. He’s worth hanging onto if you drafted him, and on the flip side I like Cooper as a buy-low trade target.
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