Duke Johnson wanted a trade from the Cleveland Browns for months, and Thursday it came to fruition as he’s headed to the Houston Texans for a conditional draft pick.
Houston does not stand out as an ideal landing spot fantasy football wise for Johnson. But with their surprise release of D’Onta Foreman, he will step in as the immediate backup to Lamar Miller and get a chunk of passing down work for the Texans.
For three years running, Johnson has gotten more targets than carries and if not for a small gap between carries and receptions in 2017 (82 to 74) it would be three straight years of more catches than carries. So a passing down role is right up his alley, and his clear path to fantasy value.
Let’s look at Johnson’s career fantasy finishes, divided by standard and PPR scoring.
2018: Standard scoring-RB48, Full-Point PPR-RB37
2017: Standard scoring-RB21, Full-Point PPR-RB11
2016: Standard scoring-RB39, Full-Point PPR-RB30
2015: Standard scoring-RB34, Full-Point PPR-RB23
So, going backwards, he’s been an RB4 (low-end), RB2, RB4 and RB3 in standard scoring and an RB4 (high-end), RB1, RB3 and RB2 in PPR.
Miller had just 25 receptions last year, and any real chance of a rebound back to 2017 (36) has gone away with Johnson’s presence. It’s the reverse effect in Cleveland, with Johnson leaving behind passing game work (62 targets in 2018, to be exact) for Nick Chubb (20 receptions on 29 targets last year) to soak up.
Duke Johnson in Houston is SEXY. Immediate path to receptions occasionally supplanting Lamar Miller on pass downs. BOB could creatively deploy both backs in certain formations. Can easily see 45-50 receptions, if not more. Like Chris Thompson, an overlooked option in PPR.
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) August 8, 2019
Miller should not really be moved on cheatsheets at all, but a bump or two down the ranks in PPR could be justified. Chubb could easily now edge into top-10 running back ADP in PPR leagues, and there’s some late-breaking upside for him in that format.
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The uncertainty of Johnson’s situation in Cleveland literally had him coming in as the last running back off the board by ADP (RB64-pick 14.10 in 12-team standard leagues and RB62-pick 14.05 on 12-team PPR leagues, via Fantasy Football Calculator). That is naturally going to rise now, especially and obviously in PPR formats. A push to RB3/RB4 ADP range is probably coming in PPR, with a season finish in line with that, and Johnson will carry RB4/bye week fill-in value in standard scoring. If his ADP does not jump much, or you already drafted him before he was traded, there’s some value to be had here.
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