Antonio Brown to the Patriots is an interesting move. Opinions are all over the place about what this means for his value. Some think it goes up and some think it goes down. People have good reasons for both. I actually believe it will go down slightly. If anyone wants to argue that the addition of Brown will change the Patriots game plan I would point out that the Patriots have invested in a running game in recent years and let’s not forget that Tom Brady is 42 years old and throwing the ball 50 times a game is probably not something he is interested in doing. To be clear I am not worried about his attitude or diva antics because winning games has a way to make players behave. It is tough to complain that you are not important enough when the team is winning anyway. I believe it will go down because I believe his production is going to take a big hit.
While I have never been a believer that Tom Brady is a physically gifted quarterback. I will acknowledge that he is a mastermind along with his coach. Over the last eight years, the Patriots have thrown the ball on average 601 times and completed on average 388 of those pass attempts. It is actually pretty amazing to me how consistent the numbers are over the last eight years. Because they have been so consistent I just don’t see the addition of Antonia Brown really changing those numbers.
I do not see Brown cutting into James White’s 80 plus receptions or Julian Edelman’s 70 plus receptions. That leaves roughly 230 competitions for Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, Demarius Thomas, Phillip Dorsett, any tight end on the roster and all other running backs not named James White. Now I know some of those guys might not get many receptions at all, so let’s assume all guys, not names Brown, Gordon or Thomas account for 60 total receptions. That now leaves 170 for Brown, Gordon, and Thomas. If Gordon and Thomas account for 90 total receptions, which I think is pretty reasonable, that leaves 80 receptions for Brown. I know 80 receptions are still pretty nice, but for Brown who has not had less than 100 receptions since 2012 that is a pretty big hit to his production. The next area that I see taking a hit is his total touchdowns. Brown has averaged 12 touchdowns over the last five years and I think he will be lucky to see eight this season. We are now left with his yardage. I kind of think he yardage total will not take as huge a hit as the other areas will. I think the Patriots offense will help him get the ball in space and his yards after catch should be pretty good this year. So instead of 1,300 yards, I think he is looking at right around 1,100 yards.
So, losing 20 points in receptions, 24 points in touchdowns and 20 points in yards we are looking at a total loss of 64 points, which could take him out of WR1 rankings. Of course, a high-end WR2 is not a bad player, but if he cost you a WR1 price, that is what hurts. Bottom line is Brown is still a star receiver in this league, but going to the Patriots will bring him down some. They are not going to feed him as the Raiders would have, and Steelers did. Of course, this all assumes he behaves and learns to be a team player because if not, he could be spending a lot of time on the bench as the Patriots do not have time for silly games.
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