Anyone that follows football closely should not be surprised that the Dolphins acquired Arian Foster earlier this week. On March 10th 2016 the Miami Dolphins lost their star running back Lamar Miller to the Houston Texans. That same day Dolphins signed restricted free agent C.J. Anderson to an offer sheet, that 5 days later the Denver Broncos would match. The Dolphins then quickly tried to sign Chris Johnson, but the next day he resigned with the Arizona Cardinals. Later in the month the Dolphins met with Arian Foster, but decided to hold off until they could see more progress on his torn achilles before they made any decision on him. By the end of the month, the Dolphins second-year consisted of second-year Jay Ajayi and return man Damien Williams, YIKES! Moving on to April 1st, 2016 the Dolphins signed Isaiah Pead and Daniel Thomas, and no this was not an April fools joke. Fast forward to the draft at the end of the month and in the third round the Dolphins take Kenyan Drake, a freak talent, but a very raw runner. Fast forward this time to early July and the Dolphins backfield consists of Jay Ajayi, Kenyan Drake, Isaiah Pead, Daniel Thomas, and Damien Williams. Like I said no one that follows football should be surprised that the Dolphins signed Foster after looking at those names. Now that we know why the Dolphins signed Foster, we need to figure out what impact this will have on the Dolphins backfield.
Most teams typically carry 5 running backs on their roster, and the Dolphins will likely do the same. A quick count of names from the first paragraph should tell you at least 1 running back is on the bubble. The guy I think in the most danger is Daniel Thomas. A once highly touted second round pick in 2011, Thomas never lived up to expectations. After 4 years of disappointing Dolphin and fantasy fans in 2015, he signed with the Bears but was cut before the end of preseason. He sat out all of last year and resigned this past off season with the Dolphins. The fact that he was unable to find work last season leads me to believe he is the most likely cut first.
Moving up the depth chart we now look at Isaiah Pead. Another former second-round pick Pead I think has a slight leg up on Thomas. Pead has spent time on special teams and is a better receiver. He is also younger than Thomas and despite spending some time unemployed, he spent most of the season on a roster. Realistically Pead has just as much a chance of being cut as does Thomas, but I believe Pead has more to offer the team, which should help him earn a roster spot.
There is one other back I would consider on the bubble and that is Damien Williams. Williams is one of two returning backs for the Dolphins. Last season Williams was a serviceable return man and a decent receiver out of the backfield. The fact that he played on the team last year, played the whole season, is a capable return man, and has good hands I think gives him the best opportunity to make the roster. Williams is also the first guy that is really impacted by the signing of Foster. That small role he might have had in the passing game is now gone until one of the top 3 get hurt.
Third round pick Kenyan Drake might suffer the greatest impact with the signing of Foster. As long as Foster stays healthy it might keep Drake off the field most of the game. In college Drake was seldom used, he was more of a change of pace back with freakish talent. The knock on Drake coming out of college is his raw running ability, and nothing kills a running back more than making bad decisions in the backfield. Now with Foster on the roster, the Dolphins can allow Drake time to learn a pro style of running. With the addition of Foster likely taking Drake out of the offense, I think the Dolphins might explore the possibility of him using his athleticism to return kicks. Of course with Foster’s injury history he could be right back in the mix trying to carve out a role in the offense the first Foster goes down.
Before Foster was signed Jay Ajayi was considered a low RB2 or flex play, for the life of me I do not know why. Maybe because he had little competition and someone has to get the carries. Like I mentioned in the beginning, though, the Dolphins did everything they could do to sign a running back with some experience. The failed attempts at signing C.J. Anderson and Chris Johnson plus the way too soon meeting with a Foster, who was not even cleared to run yet, was enough to tell me the Dolphins were not sold on Ajayi. Even after the Foster signing, Ajayi is still trending as an RB3, which has to be because of Foster’s injury history. Ajayi was probably in line for a 70%+ workload before Foster, but now is most likely on the flip side of that and looking at a 30% workload. That number will go down the healthier Foster is, and obviously, it can go up if Foster cannot stay healthy. Either way, the impact on Ajayi will be solely tied to Foster’s health, and I am betting on a mostly healthy Foster.
The final player impacted by the Foster signing is Foster himself. Foster is no longer an RB1, but I actually like the fit here for him. Foster can run routes as well as any RB in the league and he has some of the best hands for his position. If you are flirting with doing a zero running back draft Foster just might be a steal for you. You can probably get him around the 10th or 11th round and in PPR leagues I could see him finishing as high as a low RB2. Given the Dolphins only signed him to a one year deal I do not think they are too concerned about over working him. I think they will use him for every down that they possibly can.
So what does all this mean for you as you prepare for your draft? Simply put, do not draft Thomas, Pead, or Williams. If you are in a deep dynasty you can target Drake, otherwise pass until Ajayi or Foster get injured. In redraft leagues, Foster is my favorite unless news comes out about his injury not fully healed. If you can steal Ajayi late in the draft, I would strongly consider it, he could be a steal too if Foster goes down. But as long as Foster is healthy he is nothing more than as stash or handcuff in my opinion.
Michael Kelley is a member of the Going For 2 team. You can check out his website Dynasty League Problems for more writings or follow him on Twitter @mikekelleydlp.
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