According to Adam Schefter, quarterback Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints has multiple rib fractures and a collapsed lung. Best wishes and a speedy recovery to him. At this point, there is no timeline on his return, but the fantasy season continues to push forward through uncertainty. Now we must measure and analyze the impact on the Saints offense by looking at the quarterback position, how Alvin Kamara may be impacted, and who the biggest winner of the situation is.
Winston, who spent his first five years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is a very experienced quarterback and has shown the ability to push the ball downfield. Over the course of his career, he has thrown for 19,812 yards and 121 touchdowns. Since 2018, Winston’s average target depth has been at least 10.7 yards, whereas Brees hasn’t gone over 7.5 yards per target, which occurred in 2018 and has gradually decreased each of the last two seasons. This is obviously an upgrade for the Saints’ pass-catchers. The biggest question mark is going to be how short HC Sean Payton’s leash is going to be because although there will be plenty of big plays, Winston also has difficulty with ball security. In his short time as a pro, he has thrown 88 interceptions and has 23 fumbles lost, both league highs. For however long Winston holds the job in New Orleans, he should be regarded as a high-end QB2, with the upside of a top-5 at the position.
QB Taysom Hill
Crazy that one of the most expensive back-up quarterbacks in the league isn’t even considered anything more than a gadget player. He’s thrown 5 passes this season, none of which came after the Brees injury. He is likely to see his role remain about the same, but if Winston starts to have ball security issues, I can see Payton immediately replacing him with Hill. Even then he doesn’t offer the same upside as Winston and that fumble by Hill late in the fourth quarter on Sunday might’ve just paved the way for Winston.
RB Alvin Kamara
Kamara has been having an impressive fantasy football season. He is on pace to have his most yards from scrimmage, catches, and receiving touchdowns. With Winston being inserted into the starting lineup, Payton may opt to run the ball and throw short passes more frequently, to try and eliminate the chances for the turnover-prone quarterback to make mistakes. One issue I could see becoming a problem is Winston is known as a gunslinger and throwing deep touchdowns, thus taking away redzone opportunities where Kamara is used frequently. Kamara will remain a must-start RB1 every week and we may see an uptick in his rushing yards as teams will be forced to respect the deep ball.
More Opportunities, More Production
Although Winston is not necessarily known for hitting receivers on underneath routes like Brees, Michael Thomas may be able to salvage his season. With Winston under center, secondaries will be forced to play deeper allowing for Thomas to get his efficient short game, that we have become accustomed to, rolling again. I expect Emmanuel Sanders and Tre’Quan Harris to gain significant fantasy value over the next several weeks because seeing how this quarterback has played throughout his career, he will definitely force the ball downfield, even if it causes him to get benched. Outside of Thomas, there’s no one that stands out in the wide receiver room for the long-term, but with Smith suffering a concussion on Sunday, Sanders offers a juicy matchup with the exploitable Atlanta Falcons secondary this weekend.
Biggest Winner? TE Jared Cook.
In his last year with the Buccaneers, Winston targeted his tight ends over 100 times, which was about equal to the number of times that each Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had. Cook is a very athletic tight end that has been used sparingly most of the season, but with two of the next three games against the Falcons and the lack of league-wide production at the position, he could easily enter the TE1 conversation with the fantasy football playoffs around the corner. Currently, he is owned in 87% of leagues, so if you are lucky enough to be in one of those leagues he is a must-add.
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