What took place Saturday night is hands down one of the most shocking pieces of news I have ever heard in the NFL. Andrew Luck announcing his retirement from the league after seven seasons with the Colts came as a huge surprise to everyone in the Colts organization, the rest of the league, and every football fan out there.
In his seven seasons in Indianapolis, Luck was nothing short of great when he was on the field. Throwing for 23,671 yards and 171 touchdowns in his 86 career games left many to believe that Luck was well on his way to Canton, but the injuries derailed what could have been one of the best quarterback careers in recent history.
Since 2015, Luck suffered torn cartilage in two ribs, a partially torn abdomen, a lacerated kidney, one diagnosed concussion, a torn labrum, and the ankle/calf injury from this offseason. Luck added in his press conference that he has been “stuck in a cycle of injury, pain, and rehab” over the past four years and that his constant injuries have “taken my joy away from the game.”
The Colts organization also reached a financial settlement with Luck and his camp that allows Luck to keep all of the money, $24.8 million, that was owed back to the organization after his decision to retire. A classy move by Indianapolis after the disgusting exit he received by the fans in Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night.
With Luck now out of the fold in Indy, what does this spell for now starting quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, and other offensive weapons from a fantasy perspective going forward?
Fantasy Implications
*ADP and Position Rank based on 12 Team, 0.5 PPR format*
T.Y. Hilton: Current ADP: WR12,3.07. Hilton’s stock was already trending down as more news came out about Luck’s availability for Week 1 in question, 3.03 to 3.07 since August 12th, but this news will drop Hilton even further. I think it’s safe to assume Hilton’s season projections will drop by 130-180 yards and 1-2 touchdowns due to this. Going forward, other receivers such as Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, and Tyler Lockett now hold more value than Hilton.
Marlon Mack: Current ADP: RB20, 3.11. I don’t see Mack’s value changing much over the coming days and weeks before the start of the season. Mack didn’t see much of the ball through the air with Luck, only 17 receptions in 2018, so that side of things shouldn’t change. I believe Mack’s carries per game will increase by about 2-4 a game. Over the course of the season, that’s an extra 32 carries at minimum.
Eric Ebron: Current ADP: TE9, 8.04. No matter who the quarterback was for Indy this year, Ebron was bound to regress after his 13 touchdown season from a year ago. Now, with Brissett behind center and not Luck, he probably takes a slight hit but nothing major. His ADP and TE rank should hold true to where it is now, slipping in between Vance McDonald and David Njoku. It will be interesting to see how Brissett targets Ebron, as they don’t have much of a rapport together, but Ebron will still be the Colts’ main redzone threat.
Jacoby Brissett: Current ADP: N/A. Brissett is widely recognized as one of the best backup quarterbacks in all of football, so having him as a successor to Luck somewhat softens the major blow. We have a one season long sample size of what Brissett is capable of from his 2017 campaign with Indianapolis. Although the touchdowns weren’t there, only 13, the yardage and talent was. Brissett is already familiar with the system and has an established relationship with Hilton, which benefits both of them greatly going forward. Brissett’s ceiling sits around 3,700 yards and 22-25 touchdowns, which is 600 more yard and close to double his touchdowns from 2017.
The Colts are still very much playoff contenders with Brissett behind center, but I believe the Texans should now be thought of as the favorites to win the AFC South. After finishing last season 10-6, with a horrendous start to the season, I believe they finish the year at 9-7 and sneak their way into the playoffs with a Wild Card spot.
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