Over valued players aren’t busts they are just being drafted too high.
Odell Beckham Jr-WR-NYG
You’re going to have to give up a first round pick for this guy. While, I believe in his talent, his body of work just isn’t there, to warrant such a high pick.
I get he had a great rookie season, but, there are facts that point to a decline in his numbers.
To start, Cruz is back, to think he will get the same volume he was getting when Cruz was out just isn’t realistic.
Furthermore, teams are going to have tape on him. NFL defenses are very good at taking out your best weapon. Finally, his maturity isn’t where it needs to be, to be a reliable WR1.
Jeremy Maclin-WR-KC
With an ADP of 65, he is just going to early. He gets Alex Smith as his QB, yes, the same Alex Smith who doesn’t throw touchdown passes to his WRs.
Maclin finished up last season with 85/1318/10, he has no chance at even matching those numbers in KC. Just to put this into perspective the Chiefs leading WR last year had 60/754/0.
It’s a much more conservative offense here in KC. That will reflect in Maclin’s 2015 numbers.
Kelvin Benjamin-WR-Car
He surprised many people last year with a solid rookie campaign. Now everyone is lining up to get some Kelvin Benjamin. He finished up with 73/1008/9.
This year, you are going to pay for those numbers. He is the 33rd player off the board and the #14 WR. He is a perfect candidate for a sophomore slump.
Defenses will show up to take him out of games.
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Last year he dropped a lot of easy balls, The Panthers WRs still leave a lot to be desired. KB is simply too expensive after just 1 NFL season.
Matt Forte-RB-Chi
A lot of change going on in Chicago this year. He has a new coaching staff and they are gonna run a different gameplan. We have gotten used to Matt Forte rushing for over 1000 and catching another 80+ balls, under Mark Trestman’s guidance.
John Fox is known for his RB committees. Matt Forte is getting older now, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his workload get dialed back in an attempt to save his legs.
It’s hard to feel good about putting your first RD pick, on a man with a new coach in a new system. Especially, one who is approaching 30 years old. Statistically speaking, this is the age where RBs start to regress.
Lamar Miller-RB-Mia
He is the number 16 RB off the board this year. At times last season it seems mid way through the game they would sub him out like he was on a snap count.
He doesn’t have the body strength to me an every down back. the Dolphins drafted Jay Ajayi to handle all the between the tackles running, he will also take the redzone work from Miller.
All in all I like Lamar Miller as a late RB2 in drafts this year. I suggest handcuffing him with Ajayi as an insurance policy. He brings extra PPR value to the table but not enough to mortgage a 2nd Rd pick on him.
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