Amari Cooper has been discussed as an elite asset until as recently as 2021. A lightning rod for a conversation on social media, his value centered mostly around his devious boom weeks and the distance between each one. Enter Cooper’s 2022 offseason and the start of his time as fantasy football’s middle child.
Cooper is set to enter his age 28 season when the Browns kick off in 2022. He is no longer a young stud beaming with hope and upside. While simultaneously missing out on the wide receiver old-timers club card and 50-percent off Denny’s all-day breakfast.
Coming off another disappointing season for the Cowboys, it became more evident Cooper would be on the move by the week and on March 12th, 2022 it happened. The Cowboys sent the former Raiders first-round pick to the Cleveland Browns for a fifth-round pick and a swap of sixth-round picks in 2022.
Does the move to Cleveland make Cooper a dynasty fantasy wide receiver one? He has undoubtedly been drafted there before far too often. Cooper just missed the cut in his rookie season, being drafted as the wider receiver 12.5 in 2015; however, until 2021, Cooper was one of fantasy football’s highest-drafted wide receivers going as early as WR4.75 in 2017.
Looking through the lenses of a hopeful football fan in Cleveland can be an enriching experience, full of valuable life lessons like patience and the discovery of endless optimism. I am sorry to remind everyone this is still the Browns, a franchise forged in letdown and disappointment, even though they added quarterback DeShaun Watson. Cooper has failed to meet expectations at nearly every other stop on his NFL journey.
What do you do when there are cheaper older wide receivers who can provide Cooper’s production? I will explain just how I deal with disappointing players.
Amari Cooper: Fantasy Disappointment
Unlike a Tarantino movie, I like to start my story at the beginning and work through to a satisfying conclusion. Cooper was a highly touted prospect out of Alabama going into the draft—even having a prospect profile once compared to the likes of hall of fame wide receiver Calvin Johnson.
Having a prototype alpha receiver with his draft capital, speed score, and production profile makes fantasy managers often go wild at draft time. And Cooper saw his average draft position soar as a rookie, finishing as a top 13 receiver in total ADP. But unfortunately, he didn’t reward his fantasy managers’ faith.
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Was it his quarterback?
During Coopers rookie season, quarterback Derek Carr had one of the best years. He finished as QB17 with 3,987 yards and a career-high 32 touchdowns during his sophomore campaign. Cooper’s struggles could be linked to his battle with drops in his rookie season as he adjusted to the speed of the NFL. However, he caught up to speed in his sophomore year, where he jumped a total of one target but caught 11 more passes in 2016. His increased reception percentage helped him finish with his second-best fantasy season pulling in 14.3 points per game, good for 16th.
With only five touchdowns in 2016, fantasy managers had to feel disappointed once again as they reached for the stars with Cooper on draft day. However, according to Dynasty League Football positional ADP data, fantasy players smashed the draft button early and often in 2017, with his average draft position amongst receivers ballooning to fifth.
Yet even after back-to-back let downs, Cooper once again had fantasy managers basking in the what-ifs of the former No. 4 draft pick. Seeing his ADP rise into the top five receivers in 2017. However, Cooper was flat-out awful in his third season, tallying a career-low in nearly every category except touchdowns in which he had seven.
Though Cooper dealt with the dreaded high-ankle sprain and concussion issues, Cooper managed to play 14 games in 2017. With three games finishing as a WR1, Cooper again kept fantasy managers coming back for more.
Finishing 12th in Week 1 with 17.2 points, No. 1 overall in Week 7 with a game-breaking 44 points. Cooper even managed to close out the year on a high note especially after finishing no better than 31st from weeks 8 through 14. His week 16 of 13 and 17 finish of 9th was all managers needed to seemingly put all the troubles of Cooper’s season behind them as they looked towards 2018. Unknowingly about to experience one of the wildest turnarounds in fantasy at the time.
A Change Of Scenery For Cooper
For the first time since his rookie season, Cooper saw his ADP come close to outside of WR1 territory. The reward for having faith? Inconsistent play as he finished as a top 12 option twice in the season’s first six games with the other four below WR80.
The lack of production and a regime change forced a disruption in the fantasy landscape. The Raiders pulled the trigger on a week eight trade to the Dallas Cowboys, sending fantasy football managers into a frenzy for their star wide receiver.
The splits between the Raiders and Cowboys were enough to spark newfound faith in the former Alabama stand-out. Weeks 8 through 17, Cooper saw the 11th most receptions, 12th in targets, tied for fourth in touchdowns, and most importantly for managers, he finished down the stretch as the WR11 in points per game.
This turnaround was a breath of fresh air for anyone holding onto Cooper through the season’s first seven weeks. Looking at the two stints, Cooper averaged 9.5 points per game with the Raiders compared to 17.6 points per game with the Cowboys.
Was the late-season push enough to keep Cooper’s ADP from falling? In 2019 Cooper saw his ADP hit 8.92 and rewarded his fantasy managers with his best season hitting WR14 overall in PPG for receivers. But, sadly, things came crashing down in 2020. Despite his 11.5 ADP, Cooper was disappointed with a WR21 finish.
What Does It All Mean?
When you draft a fantasy asset you should be willing to accept variance in the outcomes as young players can tend to be hit or miss. Although Cooper was viewed as an up-and-coming star by most, he now has seven years as a pro and four of those seven years being drafted as a top 12 fantasy wide receiver. Cooper has played 108 games in his career, and he has only finished as a top 12 receiver in 25 of those games and a top 24 option 45 times. But the most disappointing would be Cooper’s lack of number one overall finishes with five.
At Cooper’s ADP before 2021, he was a fade at cost. When drafting an elite asset, you expect truly top-tier production, something Cooper doesn’t hit. Cooper’s 2021 ADP finally saw a dip to late wide receiver two territories of 18.42, and his finish of 13.7 points per game was less disappointing when you consider Cooper gave you top 24 weeks only five times last season. However, it was still too rich for his price. My approach to fantasy is avoiding a player who appears only to have volume-based upside.
As of March 2021, you could still move on from Cooper for a wide receiver with a range of outcomes mirroring his own, like Tyler Lockett. He has a 2021 ADP of wide receiver 34 but finished with six top 12 finishes and seven top 24 finishes, even higher than Cooper’s as the 18th receiver in points per game. Those numbers look a lot better when compared to Cooper 2021 of four, five, and 27 of the same categories.
Avoid players with projected volume upside or players who have disappointed but have value. And turn them into replacement level production while increase your depth to improve your team’s chances of success. Cooper’s production is not a blip in his timeline. It is the timeline, and his career target share of 20.6 percent with a career-high 22.3 percent doesn’t bode well for a turn into the upper tier.
What Makes Amari Cooper The Middle Child?
The middle child isn’t the new favorite or the distinguished oldest child off to college. Not young enough to get the most recent fancy version of everything, they all go to the youngest and instead stuck with the hand-me-downs. The middle child generally needs to stand out above and beyond the other children because the oldest has “been there and done that,” and the youngest is experiencing life for the first time full of promise.
For Amari Cooper, He is not the young stud prospect full of hype and variance like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Marquise Brown anymore. He is also not old enough to be among the discounted veterans like A.J Green and Adam Thielen. Unfortunately, Cooper also doesn’t stand out like other players his age like Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, and Tyler Lockett.
So there Cooper sits right in the middle. Maybe it finally all caught up to him as his 2022 ADP as of now stands at 26.7. But once again, he has been traded, and even more tempting is now his expected quarterback is a top-five signal-caller in Deshaun Watson.
It may seem enticing it may even make sense to rush to acquire Cooper. But as I mentioned above, have we seen this before a perceived quarterback upgrade? Check. Little to no competition for targets as of now? Check. A path to top ten production? Check. I urge you to, please let him be someone else’s problem this year, especially if Watson faces a suspension and the first six to eight games Cooper has Baker Mayfield – or worse – throwing him the football.
Steer clear of fantasy football’s middle child and get yourself some new blood on your roster or flip Amari Cooper for some productive vets and draft capital. Thank me later and win yourself some championships. Maybe stop by Trophy Smack and use promo code: TIPPLE and get yourself a free ring with the purchase of a trophy or a belt for implementing the techniques discussed in this article. Stop by my page at @ThomasTippleFF and thank me later and as always may your best days be spent tilting.
Data in this article was sourced from PlayerProfiler, Dynasty League Football, Fantasy Pros, Statmuse, and Pro Football Focus.
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