The end of the NFL regular season is rapidly approaching, it’s already week 14! Some of you have been crushing your bets all season long and some are probably ready to move on from this NFL season and 2020 altogether, honestly. Either way, let’s use Week 14 to continue or begin some hot streaks with NFL “OVER/UNDER’s” I like.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
When writing this, 69% of the tickets and a whopping 90% of money are on the over which has now pushed this total from 48.5 to 51.5. I was lucky enough to grab it at 49.5 but would still bet it at the current number. While Patrick Mahomes is having another MVP caliber season, the Dolphins are 6th in passing DVOA and I think they should do enough defensively to keep this one under.
Miami is second in points allowed (212), only the Steelers (211) have been better so far this year. Tua Tagovailoa may have silenced some doubters last game with his performance against the Cincinnati Bengals, throwing for 296 passing yards and one touchdown but personally, I still consider him to be a “game manager”, at least for now. I think Brian Flores will continue to keep him in such a role against the Chiefs on Sunday with a run-heavy approach. Kansas City is 30th in DVOA vs the run and a successful run-heavy game plan will be able to limit Patrick Mahome’s time on the field. Miami is also towards the bottom of the league when it comes to run-defense (24th) so we could see Andy Reid dial up some more run plays as well. Two run-funnel defense should play a huge role in keeping this one under the total.
For anyone who likes to bet based on trends, both teams have some under trends going in their favor. The under is 7-2 in the Chiefs last 9 road games altogether. 5-0 on the road against teams with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 games played in December. The Dolphins on the other hand have had the under hit in their last 6 vs the AFC, going 5-1 and it’s went 4-1 in their last 5 home games. I’m not one to put much weight into trends when it comes to betting but numbers like that are pretty convincing, give me the under.
My Pick: Under-49.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady coming off a loss is a problem for any team to game plan for, it will be an even more daunting task for the Minnesota Vikings and their 26th overall ranked defense. Minnesota has a young secondary who has been had all year, allowing 52% of plays to go for more than 20 yards and 50.9% of pass plays to be successful. They can’t get pressure consistently and we have seen Tom Brady carve up defenses who can’t generate pressure time and time again.
No secondary to worry about and a clean pock is a perfect recipe for Brady to put up points in bunches, especially with the three stud receivers he has. The Vikings are 7th in points allowed (27.4 per game) while the Bucs are 6th in points per game (28.7). The Bucs also rank 1st in defensive rush efficiency and have been holding teams to a league-low 3.3 yards per carry. That should mean fewer runs for Dalvin Cook and more pass attempts for Kirk Cousins, meaning we should see plenty of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Tom Brady and company should have no problem what-so-ever putting up points and the Vikings should be able to punch it themselves a few times, I love the over in this one.
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My Pick: Over-52.5
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
The New Orleans Saint’s last 6 games have gone all went under 42 points with their last 3 games going under 38, all of which Taysom Hill started. Their hard nose defense which has led them to the #1 overall ranked D over the last four weeks combined with a steady dose of Hill, Kamara, and Murray in the run game will alone set this game up to have the same kind of pace and style.
On the other side of the ball The Eagles offense finally pulled the trigger on sitting their 100 million dollar franchise QB in favor of the 2nd round rookie, Jalen Hurts. No matter how much talent Hurts has, he still has two things going against him. The Eagles o-line/play calling and the simple fact that that they offensively are a bad football team, ranking towards the bottom in all offensive categories. This will be an old-school slugfest between two stout defenses and I’m on the under all the way.
My Pick: Under-44.5
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