According to BetMGM, point totals make up 25-30% of all bets on NFL games. That means against the spread (ATS) bets see about 3 or 4 times more action and are the most popular bets made on NFL games. Just because betting on totals may not be the most popular, that doesn’t mean there isn’t value in betting them. With that being said, I’m going to break down a few “Over/Under’s” I like this week.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
My Pick: Under-46
At the time of writing this, the highest percentage of bets are coming in on the over but I’m going to fade the public in this one. While the Saints are winning with Taysom Hill under center, he hasn’t been great. He has been mediocre passing the ball and failing to target one of, if not the best pass-catching back in the NFL, Alvin Kamara. The Saints defense on the other hand has been playing lights out over the last month. They have only given up a total of 28 points in their last 4 games combined! Todd Gurley and Julio Jones were limited in practice this week and both will carry a questionable tag going into Sunday’s game. Even if both end up suiting up, they obviously won’t be at a hundred percent. I don’t like the Falcons chances offensively in this matchup. Their defense on the other hand has been playing better under interim head coach Raheem Morris. They are ranked 6th in Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). That should help limit what the Saints can do with the ball, especially while Taysom Hill is the signal-caller. Even if the Saints do end up punching it in a few times, I think their defense continues to stay hot, keeping this one under the total.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings
My Pick: Over-50
The Vikings have activated Adam Thielen off the covid-19 list on Wednesday, putting him on track to play in week 13. That’s good news for the Vikings offense and Kirk Cousins who will get his number one receiver back. You can’t mention the Minnesota Vikings offense without bringing up Dalvin Cook who already has over a thousand yards on the ground this season. Cook should have no problem having continued success on the ground against the Jaguars who are, well, defensively-challenged. The Vikings and their young secondary are also not a defensive unit that puts fear in anyone so I look for both teams to be able to score enough in this one to take the total over. The over is also 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 home games, as well as 5-0 vs teams with a losing record and 7-0 in their last 7 home games. As bad as the Jaguars are, we have seen them be competitive so I think they can put just enough points up to push this one over. The emergence of undrafted free agent out of Illinois State, James Robinson has given their offense a spark all season and I look for him to continue his breakout year against the Vikings soft D. Two capable offenses and two bottom tiered defenses is a good recipe for some points, my money is on the over.
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals
My Pick: Under-42.5
The Bengals offense struggled big-time last week with Brandon Allen at quarterback, only gaining 155 yards and turning the ball over 3 times. Allen will now have to face one of the league’s most dynamic defenses, the Miami Dolphins. Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer is an aggressive-minded defensive coach who will scheme up deceiving pressure looks that will confuse even the most experienced quarterbacks. It will be a long day for Brandon Allen and the 2-8-1 Bengals. As good as the Dolphins are on defense, they haven’t been playing that well since their bye week. They are only averaging 261 yards of offense over the last 5 games and most of their points are coming from their defense which is the number 2 scoring unit in the NFL. Even if the Dolphins can continue to get turnovers and set their offense up with great field position leading to scores I don’t see the Bengals being able to put up any points. I like the under in this one even at a low total
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