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Below I’m going to give you my favorite props for the week so let’s get to it…
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) vs NE – OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards
Waddle had an amazing rookie season and he would be getting more media hype if there wasn’t a guy by the name of Ja’Marr Chase in Cincinnati. Waddle’s chemistry with QB Tua Tagovailoa was apparent last season, and even with the addition of WR Tyreek Hill, Tua will still look Waddle’s way early and often.
The 60.5 line for receiving yards seems an easy pick. Waddle went over this mark nine times in 16 games last season, including Week 1 against the very same team he plays this week, the Patriots.
Embed from Getty ImagesMichael Pittman (IND) @ HOU – OVER 5.5 Receptions
Pittman quietly had a really good sophomore season with 129 total targets, turning that into an 88/1082/6 line on the season. The reports coming out of camp have been that Pittman and new QB Matt Ryan have already built good chemistry. Ryan has a track record of targeting one player relentlessly, and it sounds like that will continue with Pittman.
Last season, Pittman went over the 5.5 reception line nine times in 17 games, but he had a bunch of games at 5, just missing the mark. The Texans allowed the sixth highest Adjusted Competition Percentage (76.3%) — which removes spikes, throw-aways, batted passes, and hit while throwing in 2021 (per FTNFantasy.com).
DJ Moore (CAR) vs CLE – OVER 4.5 Receptions
This may be the easiest “smash the over” pick we will see all season. Moore went over that line 12 times in 17 games last season, including seven straight games to start the season. New Panthers QB Baker Mayfield will have some extra motivation playing his former team that basically threw him away after one bad season.
Mayfield and Moore have built good chemistry in a limited time this offseason, and when you look at Mayfield’s other options in the passing game, Christian McCaffery is the only other player that could see double-digit targets.
Embed from Getty ImagesMiles Sanders (PHI) @ DET – UNDER 65.5 rushing yards
Miles Sanders missed a lot of time in the preseason and has trouble staying healthy in his career. By all reports, his backfield mate Kenneth Gainwell has looked really good while Sanders sat out with a hamstring injury. It looks like Sanders will suit up for Week 1, but I don’t expect the Eagles to give him a large enough workload to hit that 65.5 line.
Sanders went under that line eight times in 12 games last season, and the four times he went over he had 15 or more carries in all of them, and those were the only four games he had at least 15 carries. I just don’t see the Eagles giving him that big of a workload.
Other Lines I Like
WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF) @ CHI OVER 49.5 receiving yards
Lamar Jackson (BAL) @ NYJ OVER 2.5 Total Touchdowns
Jameis Winston (NO) @ ATL OVER 0.5 Interceptions
