The 4th of July is coming up and even though it may still seem like football season is miles away, it’s a sign that we are inching ever so close to the greatest time of the year. By now, we are well past the point of withdrawals but the good news is that training camps will be beginning soon. They will be followed shortly thereafter by the preseason schedule in August, leading all the way up to opening night in Denver on September 8th featuring a Super Bowl 50 rematch between the Broncos and Carolina Panthers. Even more exciting than football season itself is the return of fantasy football season. Two months may still feel like a lifetime for the average football fiend but it’s not a bad idea to start getting ready for fantasy season. If you want to have the edge on your competition, it’s important to do your research and, quite frankly, the earlier the better.
Mock drafts have already begun and will continue all the way up to the start of the season. Chances are you don’t have your league set yet but that doesn’t mean you can’t get a jump start on the competition and get a sense of where the top players are expected to fall. Mock drafts are a good way to determine that, although they should not be the sole priority of your research. Let’s be honest, though. The draft is half the excitement of fantasy football. By the end of it, our egos are high and we all claim to have the best team that will stand tall at the end for the ultimate prize of bragging rights (and hopefully some money too, or at least a championship belt, but hey that’s between you and your league members). Most leagues run their draft order at random so, of course, chances are you won’t be picking number one overall. Your first round pick won’t necessarily make your team, but choose wrong, and it could very well break it. A lot of players taken in the first round the past couple of seasons have turned out to be fantasy busts so it’s important to choose wisely. Let’s take a look at a projected mock draft featuring some of the top names we can expect to see taken in the first round for 2016.
Note: Projections based on 12-player PPR (Points Per Reception) league.
12. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
It’s not often we see a rookie projected as high as the first round for any fantasy league. Since I’ve been playing I can’t ever recall a time. How well they are going to do or how they’ll fit in the system are general concerns that usually keep fantasy owners hesitant in investing such a high pick on a newcomer. However, the moment Ezekiel Elliott was drafted by the Cowboys number four overall back in May, visions of another DeMarco Murray type quickly emerged. Murray led the league in rushing as a Cowboy in 2014 by a wide margin and dominated in the passing game as well. To say that the Cowboys missed Murray in the backfield after he elected to sign with the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2015 off-season would be a clear understatement. In hindsight, Murray’s fantasy owners from last season missed him in Dallas too.
The Cowboys needed help across the board come draft time but they felt Elliott, who was by far the best running back of this draft class, was worth the reach in round one. Elliott fantasy owners this season should feel the same way. I have Elliott ranked a little lower than some other running backs when compared to the Fantasy Pros rankings because it’s tough to predict when exactly Elliott will be handed the keys to the ignition. The Cowboys still have Darren McFadden on the roster and signed Alfred Morris in the off-season as well. Elliott will soon enough be the clear starter in Dallas but those guys could eat into his carries.
11. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
If these projections were based on a standard format I would no doubt have Peterson projected in the top 5. However, Peterson gets knocked down just slightly in PPR leagues. He finished last season with 30 catches which is what you can probably expect again this season. It’s long been known that Peterson makes his mark in the rushing game. Peterson has averaged 19.8 carries/game throughout his career and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue. Backup running back Jerick McKinnon has shown his potential with the Vikings but the coaching staff seems to prefer to use him on passing downs or to give Peterson a breather. Peterson has been putting the Vikings on his back since he entered the league. He’s starting to get up there in age at 31, which is cause enough for a red alert but you can bank on the fact the Vikings will be leaning on him once again in hopes to return to the playoffs.
10. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
Spoiler Alert: There’s only one tight end on this list. Tight end has been and will continue to be the weakest position in fantasy football in terms of depth. If your goal is to have the top tight end on your team in order to avoid the inconsistencies of others around the league, then you will need to use your first round pick on Rob Gronkowski. Other players like Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce are nice complements to pick up in later rounds if you’d rather not use your first pick on a tight end, but none bring the consistency that Gronk does. He still continues to be one of Tom Brady‘s favorite receivers and for good reason. He’s a big, athletic freak with good hands that’s tough to take down and somehow always finds a way to get open.
The Patriots are doubling down this season on tight ends after completing a trade with the Chicago Bears to obtain Martellus Bennett. It’s possible Bennett could take away from some of Gronk’s touches but it shouldn’t impact his numbers too much. It’s not as if Brady or any other Patriots quarterback is going to stop throwing his way. Drafting a tight end first can make it tricky to fill out the rest of your roster since the rest of the league will be busy picking up all the top receivers and running backs. With depth at other positions, it can be done, however. At worse, Gronk could be a valuable trade chip for another proven player provided you feel comfortable enough with your backup tight end.
9. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
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Fantasy Pros has Devonta Freeman projected to go in the mid to late second round but I think based off of last season that he deserves a first round consideration. Freeman finished just over 1,000 yards rushing in 2015, which doesn’t exactly scream first round material. In a standard format, I wouldn’t consider Freeman a first round candidate but his abilities in the passing game cannot be ignored. Freeman reeled in 73 receptions for 578 yards in 2015. Those combined numbers were good enough to lead all running backs in PPR formats. Only Danny Woodhead and Theo Riddick had more receptions among running backs (hint hint: some ideas for late round draft picks).
Tevin Coleman is expected to challenge Freeman more in his sophomore season and Atlanta would prefer to run in a committee. Committee is such an ugly word in fantasy. We prefer terms like workhorse or bell cow. The Falcons tried the committee approach last year, however, and things didn’t go quite as planned. When do they ever? Coleman cracked his ribs in week 2, declaring Freeman the Falcons starter and every down back. He never looked back. Not even when Coleman returned from injury. Case in point, Freeman is the clear-cut starter going forward with similar expectations to his 2015 breakout performance.
8. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
The most consistent thing that the Houston Texans offense has had the past few seasons has been the play of DeAndre Hopkins. Having never missed a game in his previous three seasons, Hopkins put up career numbers last year even on a weak Texans offense. Hopkins had to deal with four different starting quarterbacks in 2015. A lot of receivers in the league would look at that as an excuse but Hopkins turned it into 111 receptions, 1500+ yards, and 11 touchdowns. People doubted him in the past as an elite fantasy wideout. Those doubts are all but gone now with a franchise quarterback under center and weapons around him.
7. Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
It still feels like a flashback to 1994 each time I see Los Angeles Rams. Todd Gurley can best be described as one of those rookies, that I mentioned, who fantasy owners were hesitant about drafting due to inexperience and because he was already hurt. He went late in most preseason fantasy drafts, some not at all. Those who were patient enough to stash them on their bench for a few weeks reaped the benefits upon his return. Now he’s a projected top 3 running back in the world of fantasy.
Some caution should be advised for taking Gurley with your first pick, though. His numbers declined in the latter part of the season with opposing defenses zoning in on him. Also, for PPR leagues, it’s important to note he was only targeted 26 times all season with 21 receptions. I’m sure a boost in targets is in order with Jared Goff now running the show under center.
6. Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans
Todd Gurley may be a top 3 running back in other fantasy rankings but, in my opinion, Lamar Miller has the edge on him. Miller had fantastic numbers with the touches he had in Miami. The problem was those touches were too limited. Last season, he had less than 200 rushing attempts and just 216 in his lone 1,000-yard season the previous year. The Dolphins would puzzlingly just go away from Miller altogether, even when the run game was effective. Occasionally, the Dolphins were wise and used Miller in the passing game where he was most effective. Now in Houston, Miller will have the opportunity to be more utilized in the offense.
Houston relied heavily on former running back Arian Foster in their offense the past several seasons. So much so, that it took a toll on Foster physically, as he has been battling injuries the past few years. Miller can be an every down back for the Texans with the potential to reach career numbers. Provided he’s healthy, I predict he will reach the 1,000-yard mark rushing with relative ease and roughly 50 catches. Fantasy Pros has Miller ranked in the late first to early second round area but I think he’s worth the reach.
5. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants
Odell Beckham Jr. is one of the surefire players in this year’s fantasy draft class. OBJ has had over 90 receptions in each of his first two seasons and 25 career touchdowns. He’s averaged over 10 targets/game and is the most complete player on the Giants offense. He finished 2015 in the top 5 among receivers in all categories despite missing one game because of a suspension. There’s no reason to think he won’t do the same kind of damage in 2016 minus the suspension hopefully. Recently, he made the list of top 10 best non-QBs in the league.
The Giants have been an up and down team for the past few seasons, spending most of that on the downside. Beckham Jr., however, has been the most consistent player in the past two seasons on either side of the ball. Quarterback Eli Manning will continue to rely on his number one receiver in there hopes to get back to the playoffs. If Antonio Brown and Julio Jones are off the board but you’re still looking to take a wide receiver with your first pick, Beckham Jr. is a safe bet to put up comparable numbers.
4. David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Another player to burst onto the scene in 2015 was Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson. As a rookie, Johnson started on the depth chart behind Chris Johnson and the always injured Andre Ellington. When injuries started to hit the Cardinals backfield, Johnson got the opportunity to show what he could do. His fantasy value went through the roof, despite starting just 5 games all season. The signs for Johnson’s potential should have been there, when in week 1, Johnson took his first career reception 55 yards to the house. Had Johnson been starting from day 1, chances are he would have led all running backs in fantasy.
Johnson made the most of his touches and then some, putting up impressive numbers with such limited touches. He had just 125 carries on the season, but the Cardinals loved using Johnson in the passing game primarily because of his speed in the open field. Johnson also had a knack for finding the end zone in 2015, recording 12 total touchdowns in his rookie year. Chris Johnson and Ellington are back with the Cardinals but this time it’s clear who the RB1 is in Arizona.
3. Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
If you want to argue that Johnson deserves to be ranked ahead of Bell I won’t argue with you. It’s a toss-up for me but I give the slight edge to Bell based on experience. The only person who’s been able to stop Le’Veon Bell since he entered the league is Le’Veon Bell. Bell was initially suspended prior to the start of the 2015 season because of marijuana possession charges. Yes, apparently that’s still frowned upon in this establishment. Even with the suspension looming, Bell’s average draft position (ADP) was still around the top 5. That shows how good he really is. Fantasy owners were excited upon his return as he continued his dominance from 2014. That is until week 8, when Bell suffered a leg injury that did damage to his MCL, causing him to undergo season-ending surgery.
Bell is expected to be ready for 2016 but it would be wise to have backup DeAngelo Williams on your roster as a handcuff just in case. Bell can do EVERYTHING from line up in the I-formation and run through tacklers to lining up as a wideout. The Steelers use Bell in so many ways that he’s a hard player to pass up. In 2014, he had 105 passes thrown in his direction which is more than most receivers can say. He was on his way to similar target numbers last season until his injury. If you really want Bell and are confident you can grab Williams in the later rounds, I say go for it.
2. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
For whatever reason, a lot of people were sleeping on Julio Jones prior to 2015. It’s puzzling, particularly since he had over 160 targets thrown his way in 2014. You would think that he would have at least received better recognition in PPR formats. Instead, Jones was viewed as nothing more than a 2nd or even 3rd round pick, with experts projecting other star receivers like Beckham Jr., Calvin Johnson, and Dez Bryant to have better seasons. Now, he only caught 104 of those 160+ targets in 2014, which probably brought Jones’ value down a bit but I wasn’t buying it that the other guys would have better seasons.
I went with my instincts and grabbed Jones in the 2nd round of the draft after selecting Antonio Brown with my first pick. That’s right. I had Antonio Brown AND Julio Jones on the same team. Needless to say, I won my league championship with that combo, and no, I was not playing against amateurs. Jones isn’t sneaking up on anybody this year, however, with almost all fantasy experts predicting he’ll go somewhere in the top 5. Jones put up career numbers in 2015 for another disappointing Atlanta Falcons team that started off hot but sizzled as the season went on. He racked up nearly 1,900 yards on 136 catches, finishing second among active wideouts in fantasy production. Jones and Freeman are the only offensive weapons quarterback Matt Ryan has in his arsenal.
1. Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s no surprise that Antonio Brown is the consensus number one pick across fantasy boards. Fantasy owners are starting to get the idea that even though running backs are of high importance and not very deep, wide receivers are taking over the fantasy world. In 2015, five receivers ranked in the top 10 in overall fantasy production according to Fantasy Pros in PPR leagues. Only one running back (Freeman) made the list. Partly to blame could be the fact that a majority of running backs dealt with injuries last year. However, that gives more incentive to draft a receiver early rather than a running back since backs are more inclined to injury.
Brown has been the most consistent and dynamic receiver the past three seasons. Not only is he the best in terms of fantasy, but he’s the best in the league. The former 6th round pick was considered too short and skinny coming out of college but the Steelers took a flyer on him in 2010 and he delivered. Big Ben Roethlisberger has depended on his number one receiver for the past five seasons, targeting him no less than 100 times in that span. For the past three years, Brown has been an absolute menace. During that span, he’s caught no less than 110 catches with an average of nearly 1,700 receiving yards per year. In fact, Brown had a streak of 35 consecutive games in which he had at least 5 receptions with 50 yards up until last October. It wasn’t until Michael Vick came in and screwed it up for Brown while Roethlisberger was out with a knee injury. Brown’s numbers were nearly identical to Jones’ last season but Brown got the edge in total points because of more touchdowns and the occasional carry.
Martavis Bryant will be suspended for the year but that shouldn’t affect Brown at all. Brown seems to always find a way to get open and even if he doesn’t, Big Ben knows as long as he throws in the general area, Brown will find a way to come down with it. If you’re sitting there with the number one pick of the draft this summer it could be tempting to take one of the top running backs. If you want a number one receiver, though, then this is a no-brainer.
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