For all of you paying attention (and I hope it is every one of you), the overvalued quarterback is not the same as quarterbacks who should be avoided (except for one). An overvalued quarterback is one whose ADP is too high for the value he is going to produce for your redraft fantasy team.
Thank you fantasypros.com and fantasy football calculator for the current ADPs.
DESHAUN WATSON, CLEVELAND BROWNS
Watson makes this list and the quarterbacks you should avoid list. According to fantasypros.com, he is currently the 13th ranked quarterback and his ADP NO. 98 overall. From fantasy football calculator he is 13th overall and his ADP is 9.06.
IF and that is a big if, Watson was assured of playing most games this season, this ADP would be too low.
Now it is almost guaranteed that Watson will miss the better part of the season, and for redraft, it is best to skip down to Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, or Tom Brady, all of who are currently ranked below him in fantasy football calculator quarterback’s rankings.
KYLER MURRAY, ARIZONA CARDINALS
Per fantasypros.com Murray has the second hardest schedule for quarterbacks.
Murray is currently the fifth-ranked quarterback and the 58th overall picked player on fantasypros.com. His ADP is 4.09 on fantasy football calculator and the fourth-ranked quarterback.
So, DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for six games. Last season when Murray played with Hopkins (first nine weeks) he averaged 24.9 fantasy points per game with an average yards per attempt of 8.9. In the last four weeks without Hopkins, Murray averaged 18.8
But they acquired Marquise “Hollywood” Brown during the 2022 NFL Draft. Murray will start the season with Brown, AJ Green, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz and James Conner.
Murray’s 2021 stats: 14g, 481 attempts, 333 completions, 3787 passing yards, 7.9 average yards per attempt, 24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 88 rushing attempts, 423 rushing yards, 20 red zone carries, 4.8 average rushing yards per attempt, 5 rushing touchdowns
No Hopkins, and the second hardest schedule for a quarterback, who has a history with his team of shall we say “folding” towards the end.
Murray is currently ahead of Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, and Tom Brady, all of who would be better bets for a full fantasy season.
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TREY LANCE, SAN FRANCISCO NINERS
Lance is currently ranked 12th on the fantasy football calculator site with an average ADP 9.05. He is the 14th-ranked quarterback in fantasypros.com and the 106th overall player. That’s ahead of Derek Carr, Mac Jones, and Justin Fields (to name a few). Lance has started a total of 2.5 games in the NFL. His fantasy value is elevated because he is considered a “running” quarterback. In his games last season, he scored:
Week4 v Seattle Seahawks: 18 attempts, 9 completions, 157 yards, 2 touchdowns, 7 rushing attempts, 41 rushing yards; scored 20 fantasy points, the Seahawks gave up an average of 19.1 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position
Week5 v Arizona Cardinals: 29 attempts, 15 completions, 192 yards, 1 interception, 16 rushing attempts, 89 yards; 14.6 fantasy points, the Cardinals gave up an average of 19.6 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position
Week17 v Houston Texans: 23 attempts, 16 completions, 249 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 8 rushing attempts, 31 yards; 19.1 fantasy points, the Texans gave up an average of 19 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position
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MAC JONES, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Jones is currently the 18th quarterback off the board according to fantasypros.com and per footballcalculator.com his ADP has dropped from 10.12 to 11.01. He is still going ahead of Derek Carr and Tom Brady (per footballcalculator.com) and Matt Ryan and Justin Fields (per fantasypros.com).
Although the Patriots acquired DeVante Parker in free agency and drafted speedster Tyquan Thornton there is reason to believe his current ADP is a bit too high.
First offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is no longer in New England. There are whisperings that the former Detroit Lions head coach Matt Patricia will be calling offensive plays. Yeesh!
And then there is the fact that the Patriots are a run-first team (2021 ran the ball 47.8% of the time). In non-garbage time they ran the ball the fifth-most in the league. Jones is not known for his running ability. Last season he averaged 2.9 yards per run.
He ranked 14th in pass attempts and the Patriots were 26th in pass rate, and 28th in team’s passing plays per game (29.8).
Last season Jones had double-digit fantasy finishes as QB20 or lower. In his final five games, he threw eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. For the season he threw 24 touchdowns with 13 interceptions on 521 attempts.
If you are in a 12-man redraft, Jones’s ADP value would make him your backup or bye league replacement. The choice of Carr, Brady who you know are going to throw more or Fields whose rushing ability you can count on are better choices.
TUA TAGOVAILOA, MIAMI DOLPHINS
Tua Tagovailoa is currently the 17th quarterback chosen with an ADP of 11.06 per fantasypros.com and footballcalcualtor.com respectively. That really isn’t an over-evaluation but here is the rub, the coach speak from new head coach Mike McDaniel and the acquisition of Tyreek Hill has some fantasy managers swooning.
Just remember in his NFL career, Tagovailoa has never averaged more than 14 fantasy points per game.
AND NOW FOR YOUR CONCLUSION
This isn’t about dynasty it is all about redraft, one and done. Make sure you know how your league is scoring the quarterback position.
The current favorite= Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen tied for +700
Don’t be beholden to ADPs, they tend to fluctuate not only between sites but also from now until you are ready to draft in your fantasy leagues. And of course, if you need additional help, you know GoingFor2 is here to help.
If you are placing wagers BETMGM.com has the odds for the following, for MVP Winners 2022 season from the above-mentioned quarterbacks:
Kyler Murray +2000
Deshaun Watson +2500
Trey Lance +4000
Mac Jones +5000
Tie for favorites between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Alle +700.
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