Every week during the NFL season, I’ll be sharing my FanDuel cash game (50/50’s, Double Ups and Head to Head) line up. Cash games are a great way to build up your bankroll without as much risk as Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments.
For those unfamiliar with cash games, roster construction differs in some ways than GPPs. In GPPs, our line up needs to finish in the top 15% or so to simply cash, so we’re looking for those boom or bust players to roster with our studs, to stay under the salary cap. In cash games, we merely have to finish in the top 45-50% with a score of about 120, which usually gets us there, so we look to replace those boom or bust layers with much safer players, who may lack the high ceiling to help win a GPP who can be reasonably expected to return 2X value (if a player’s salary is $6,000, then we’d need him to score 12 fantasy points).
Before I get into my LU for the week, some general thoughts going into Week2:
- Don’t get too caught up into what happened Week 1, it was an anomaly. 14 of the 30 teams that played failed to gain 300 yards in total offense. To put that into context, one team failed to average 300 yards last year, so last week basically half the NFL was the 2016 Rams.
- The Cardinals are a mess and nobody is playable for me. The RB situation is now a 3 man, muddy committee. Carson Palmer was washed up last year and wanted to retire but was talked out of it. He’s completely done now, making all of his receivers off-limits as well.
- The Seahawks and Giants have two of the worse offensive lines in memory. All their players are severely down graded as a result. The Giants defense made the Cowboys pass rush look ferocious. Trust me, as a Cowboys fan, out pass rush is not ferocious.
- Keep in mind the Dolphins and Bucs starters haven’t played in three weeks and, due to Bye Week rules, haven’t been able to practice every day, either.
The blocks I like to check for my QB include a good match up with a bottom 10 pass defense, a high Vegas implied total and for him to be on the team that is the slight favorite. Â Ideally, we want a mobile QB, as those rushing yards provide a nice floor. Finally, check the weather reports for strong winds or torrential rains.
QB Matt Ryan ($8,200) I think Ryan is the safest choice because we’ve literally seen this game twice last year, where the Falcons ran up totals of 33 and 42 points. Very little has changed since last season other than Atlanta having a new OC who wants to play at a faster pace. The Falcons are 2.5 point favorites in a game with a 53 point O/U.
At the RB position, I’m looking for most of the same blocks to check.  I’m also looking for a three down back, but they’re becoming rare and are usually expensive, so I often settle for a two down back (but not a committee RB) who also handles short yardage duties.
RB Melvin Gordon ($7,600) As I mentioned, the Dolphins should be rusty and they have to travel across country and may be distracted by the devastation brought by Irma. As it stands, they ranked 31st last season in rushing yards allowed and the Chargers may see some short fields against interception-prone Jay Cutler.
RB Ty Montgomery ($6,500) Ty Montgomery played in 90% of the Packers offensive snaps last week and faces a Falcons team ranked 28th against run and 25th against RBs as receivers by Football Outsiders last year, in a game with a 54 point O/U. Both meetings last season went to 65 point totals. Stacking Rogers and Montgomery also theoretically gives us some exposure to all the TDs Green Bay scores.
For WRs, I’m looking for the same things I’m looking for in my QB, but I’m looking for them to be slight underdogs. I also look for a receiver who’s the QBs #1 target. Targets lead to points, so the best way to ensure your receivers return value is to ensure they get plenty of opportunities. I also avoid rookies until they prove themselves. Coaches are conservative and a rookie has to earn the coach’s trust to make it onto the field and then earn the QB’s trust to start getting targets.
WR Julio Jones ($8,800) If Rogers does his thing against the Falcons, they’re going to need a big game from Jones to keep up; remember that 180 yard, 2 TD performance in the playoff last year? Green Bay has improved their secondary that was ranked 23rd against the pass last year, but they’re still not scary.
WR Tyreek Hill ($7,200) Some people still think of Hill as a gadget player, but he’s actually the Chiefs #1 WR on a team that lacks weapons. This game has a healthy 47.5 OU and the Eagles secondary was dealt a blow, losing shut down CB Ron Darby. Finally, Hills floor is helped by the fact he should get a few rushing yards as well.
WR Adam Thielen ($5,800) Honestly, I’m not chasing points here. Since Week 12 of last season, Thielen has been a target monster and that continued last week as well. I’m not expecting 20+ FD points again, but this game sets up nicely as the Vikings have an improved offensive line and it features a 45.5 O/U.
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Statistics show that TEs on teams favored at home, with a Vegas implied total of 22 or more points has the best chance to return the highest value.
TE Greg Olsen ($6,500) Olsen checks all the blocks with the Panthers drawing a healthy Vegas implied total. The Bills struggle against the pass (21st in 2016) and Cam Newton should have plenty of time to find his receivers with a downgraded defensive line.
Kickers are a crapshoot, but these four blocks will help tremendously: high Vegas total, favored to win (he’ll be more likely to kick 4th quarter FGs if the team is winning rather than be sitting on the bench, watching his team go for it on 4th down), playing at home and playing in a dome.
K Giorgio Tavecchio ($4,700) Who? He’s Oakland’s kicker and while he isn’t playing at in a dome, he’s a huge favorite over the hapless Jets at home.
Defenses aren’t that difficult. They score their point primarily with sacks, turnovers and defensive TDs. Therefore, I target teams with bad QBs and look for defenses with a strong pass rush and/or secondary. Bad QBs throw more interceptions and hold the ball longer, leading to more sacks.
D Baltimore Ravens ($4,700) Am I expecting another shutout? No. But I’ll take my chances against a rookie QB, with limited weapons, in his first road start. The Ravens pass rush is legit, too.
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