Every week during the NFL season, I’ll be sharing my FanDuel cash game (50/50’s, Double Ups and Head to Head) lineup. Cash games are a great way to build up your bankroll without as much risk as Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments.
For those unfamiliar with cash games, roster construction differs in some ways than GPPs. In GPPs, our lineup needs to finish in the top 15% or so to simply cash, so we’re looking for those boom or bust players to roster with our studs, to stay under the salary cap. In cash games, we merely have to finish in the top 45-50% with a score of about 120, which usually gets us there, so we look to replace those boom or bust layers with much safer players, who may lack the high ceiling to help win a GPP who can be reasonably expected to return 2X value (if a player’s salary is $6,000, then we’d need him to score 12 fantasy points).
Before I get into my LU for the week, some general thoughts going into Week3:
- I’m just going to come out and say it, the FD $2.75 Million Dollar contest is a sucker bet. Over 36% of the prize money goes to first place, which is insane. To put this in perspective, you have to finish 21,000 or better in a field of 462,184 (top 4.5%) to win $14 (which is what you’d make in a $7 Double Up, finishing in the top 45%.)
- I often refer to Vegas projections in my analysis, but remember to use these as a guide, not as gospel. If they were always correct, nobody would ever bet games and believe me, I bet games.
- We want the teams our players are on to score a lot of points, but be careful with potential blowouts. Last week’s Raiders/Jets game is a perfect example. Michael Crabtree smashed value before the Raiders shut it down, but no one else was too exciting from a fantasy perspective.
The blocks I like to check for my QB include a good matchup with a bottom 10 pass defense, a high Vegas implied total and for him to be on the team that is the slight favorite. Â Ideally, we want a mobile QB, as those rushing yards provide a nice floor. Finally, check the weather reports for strong winds or torrential rains.
QB Matthew Stafford ($7,900) After a sensation week 1 performance, Stafford only had to throw 21 times last week. He’ll be needed in a potential shootout (50.5 O/U, Det +3) at home against Atlanta. A bonus with Stafford is that Detroit rarely runs the ball for TDs (9 in 2016, none this season) so Stafford usually has exposure to most TDs.
At the RB position, I’m looking for most of the same blocks to check.  I’m also looking for a three-down back, but they’re becoming rare and are usually expensive, so I often settle for a two-down back (but not a committee RB) who also handles short-yardage duties.
RB Jay Ajayi ($8,200) Ajayi had 30 total touches in Miami’s win against the Chargers and I expect more of the same. The Jets were embarrassed last week and I expect them to score enough against Miami’s suspect defense to keep this game close and Ajayi involved throughout.
RB Ty Montgomery ($7,200) Montgomery’s price is creeping up, but there’s a good reason for it. He’s had 17.3 and 26 FD points the last 2 weeks and has gone from being a converted WR to a legitimate 3 down RB. He’ll face a middle of the pack Bengals defense with positive game script, while Green Bay may be missing some WRs.
For WRs, I’m looking for the same things I’m looking for in my QB, but I’m looking for them to be slight underdogs. I also look for a receiver who’s the QBs #1 target. Targets lead to points, so the best way to ensure your receivers return value is to ensure they get plenty of opportunities. I also avoid rookies until they prove themselves. Coaches are conservative and a rookie has to earn the coach’s trust to make it onto the field and then earn the QB’s trust to start getting targets.
WR A.J. Green ($7,500) WR is tough this week, but Green makes a lot of sense for a host of reasons other than recent form. He’s too cheap, he never complains but complained after the Bengals got embarrassed last week, they have a new OC who is vowing to get him the ball and the Packers defense is riddled with injuries.
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WR Keenan Allen ($7,200) Since Allen gets injured seemingly every season, fans forget how good he is. Allen is locked in as the Chargers #1 receiver (20 targets this season) and faces a shaky Chiefs pass defense in a potential shootout (47.5 O/U.)
WR DeVante Parker ($6,500) A lot of what I wrote about Ajayi goes here as well. While many fans will look at Jarvis Landry (15 targets) over Parker, Landry averaged 3.2 air yards, meaning he was 3.2 yards past the line of scrimmage vs an incredible 18.3 for Parker. Furthermore, Parker was shadowed by Chargers Pro Bowl CB Casey Hayward and still managed to catch 4 of those targets for 85 yards.
Statistics show that TEs on teams favored at home, with a Vegas implied total of 22 or more points has the best chance to return the highest value.
TE Zach Ertz ($6,500) Ertz is 11th in the NFL in targets and 8th in catches, incredible numbers for a TE. Meanwhile, old man Jason Witten went 7/59/1 and perennial breakout candidate Eric Ebron went 5/42/1 vs Giants and Ertz is much better at this stage than they are.
Kickers are a crapshoot, but these four blocks will help tremendously: high Vegas total, favored to win (he’ll be more likely to kick 4th quarter FGs if the team is winning rather than be sitting on the bench, watching his team go for it on 4th down), playing at home and playing in a dome.
K Ryan Succop ($4,500) To be honest, I had to go down to minimum price to make the salaries work (and I’m not sacrificing a position player I like for a kicker.) Even though he doesn’t check all the blocks, he makes sense because this doesn’t look like a game where a lot of TDs will be scored, it could come down to a battle of FGs.
Defenses aren’t that difficult. They score their point primarily with sacks, turnovers and defensive TDs. Therefore, I target teams with bad QBs and look for defenses with a strong pass rush and/or secondary. Bad QBs throw more interceptions and hold the ball longer, leading to more sacks.
DEF Eagles ($4,500) The Giants offense is bad. Eli Manning has been sacked 8 times, fumbled and thrown 2 INTs against defensive “juggernauts” Dallas and Detroit. Meanwhile, the tough Philly front 7 (there are some holes in the secondary) is averaging 13 FD points a game.
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