It’s been awhile since I’ve been able to do an NFL column. I’m still trying to get the cadence down with writing for two other sites and the NBA being every day. I’m going attempt to put up my NFL column on Wednesday night or Thursday mornings since the NBA slate on Thursdays seems to always be the day they don’t have many games. I’ve had a lot of successes lately in the NFL, especially Week 10. Everything I touched last week cashed. Everything. I’m looking to keep that going and share some of my luck with you, let’s do this…
Explosive Play – In the real-world NFL an explosive play is any play over 20 yards, and those type of plays will typically win you football games. In the DFS world, an explosive play is a player that I think has the potential to put up huge fantasy production, based on his matchup, recent performance, and his history against the opposing team. Theses are the plays you need to win in the DFS world.
Deep Threat – A deep threat is a second or third tier player that I think will outperform their price on FanDuel, giving you the best Return on Investment (ROI).
Punt Play – This term is pretty universal — typically a GPP play only. It’s a player that has an outside shot to have a great game and will most likely me low-owned in large tournaments.
Missed Tackle – A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be avoiding — be it because of the match-up, weather conditions, or recent performance.
*note* I will not include kickers, because, well, they are kickers.
NFL DFS Fanduel Lineup Advice for Week 11
Quarterbacks
Explosive Play Cam Newton, Panthers 8600
Newton has one of the lowest floors for a quarterback because he will always get you points with his legs. He faces the Redskins that are coming off a blowout victory over the Saints. The Redskins gave up some big plays last week to Drew Brees, and though I don’t expect Cam to make those same type of plays, he will, however, do enough to get into scoring position and either take it in himself or throw it to Greg Olsen.
Deep Threat Derek Carr, Raiders 7700
Raise your hand if you thought Derek Carr would be this good? Okay, put your hand down, not even his brother, and former NFL quarterback is raising his hand. No one saw it coming, at least not this soon. We might be hearing Carr to Cooper for many years to come, and hopefully a lot this weekend because they will be my favorite stack for GPP’s this weekend.
Punt Play Mark Sanchez, Eagles $6400
Sanchez was actually a decent fantasy option last year when he was starting. His price is one of the lowest among the expected starters this weekend, and even though Tampa Bay isn’t the pushover defense everyone assumes they are, Sanchez should be good here.
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Missed Tackle Andy Dalton, Bengals $7900
If you have any question about why he is here, go watch Monday football replays from this past weekend. Not to mention the Cardinals D is pretty good.
Running Backs
Explosive Play Devonta Freeman, Falcons $9100
A ton of running backs have great matchups this weekend, I could have gone with any one of them. Ultimately took the Falcons coming off a bye week, at home, and a plus matchup with the Colts.
Deep Threat Charcandrick West, Chiefs $7100
If he can do what he did to Denver, one of the best defenses in the league, imagine what he can do the Chargers, one of the worst run defenses in the league. Jamaal Charles who? Okay, that’s taking it a bit far.
Punt Play Danny Woodhead, Chargers $6400
I don’t know why this guys price hasn’t gone up much, I guess the three dud games he has had keeps his price low. He hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since week 3, but I think he gets one here, and may even catch one too. The Chargers will be forced to throw a ton because they have no run game to speak of and with the all the injuries they have, someone has to catch all those passes.
Missed Tackle Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks $8100
This is less about the matchup and more about health. Lynch just doesn’t look right.
Wide Receivers
Explosive Play Mike Evans, Bucs $8000
These are the stat lines from three of his last four games. 8rec/126yds, 8rec/150yds, and 8rec/164yds. The only thing missing in those numbers is the touchdowns… because he didn’t have any! I’d be willing to put money on that being a record. To have that many receptions and yards, but no touchdowns. That changes this weekend. He may not get the ridiculous yardage numbers, but he’ll have a multi-touchdown game.
Deep Threat Amari Cooper, $7200
I already told you I was going to  stack him and Derek Carr, so, of course, he would be here. The Lions at one point in the season, if you took their top 3 cornerbacks and added up the QB rating against them, it was a perfect 158.3. Anytime you are giving up a perfect score in anything, that’s not good. They have played better of late, most recently against Aaron Rodgers, but that was flukey.
Punt Play Jordan Matthews, Eagles $6300
Another popular stack option for me is Mark Sanchez and Matthews. Matthews had all his best games in 2014 with Sanchez as his QB, including his breakout performance on Monday night last year against the Panthers where he had 7 catches for 138 yards and two touchdowns.
Missed Tackle A.J. Green $8200
Green has been too inconsistent to be trusted in DFS, his QB has had something to do with it, but Green hasn’t looked like himself of late.
Tight Ends
Explosive Play Rob Gronkowski, Patriots $8400
Yeah, not explaining this one. Move on.
Deep Threat Eric Ebron, Lions $5400
Start the tight end versus the Raiders! Okay, that mantra has tapered off a bit, but if I had to pick a tight end outside of Gronk and Greg Olsen that has the best chance to score, Ebron would be on the short list.
Punt Play Martellus Bennett, Bears $5200
Hard to believe that one of he top tight ends to start the season has fallen to “punt” status, but with the Denver defense coming to town, Jay Cutler is going to be under pressure on nearly every play. Bennett will be a big target over the middle that Cutler can hit quickly to beat the pass rush.
Missed Tackle Travis Kelce
Kelce has had only two games with double-digit scoring over his last six games but is priced like a guy that has played much better.
Explosive Play Seahawks vs 49ers $5400
The 49ers when they were good were always terrible in Seattle. Now they have Blaine Gabbert at QB, Shaun Draughn at RB, and an offensive line that wouldn’t make the cut on my flag football team.
Deep Threat Jets vs Texans $4700
This game will be an offensive struggle. NHL games will be higher scoring than this one.
Punt Play Texans vs Jets $4500
see Jets
Missed Tackle Bengals vs Cardinals $4700
No thanks.
Flex
Flex players are just additional players I like but just didn’t make the cut to be featured.
- QB Philip Rivers, Chargers $8300
- RB Chirs Johnson, Cardinals $6800
- WR Jarvis Landry, Dolphins $7200
- WR Jamison Crowder, Redskins $5800
- TE Greg Olsen, Panthers $6400
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