Let’s be honest, if you didn’t have Travis Kelce or Darren Waller on your fantasy team this past season, you probably weren’t banking on much help from your tight end as a difference maker in close games. And yes there’s George Kittle too, but he missed half the season with injuries. In looking over the year end rankings I’ve come to two conclusions about the tight end position heading into 2021.
The first of which you’ll read here, I’m going to break the position down into three tiers…
Tier I: Travis Kelce.
Tier II: Darren Waller and George Kittle.
Tier III: Everyone else.
Secondly, I’ll make the case it would not be a mistake to draft Kelce with 1.01 in your redraft league. Let’s get into it.
Tier I – The Travis Kelce Stand Alone Tier. Not only was Travis Kelce dominant throughout the entire season, but his average points per game is nearly double that or greater than every TE ranked 4th and beyond. Now to be clear, I’m not saying Kelce should be the 1.01 pick in redraft.
I’m simply stating it wouldn’t be a mistake in my mind if drafted first overall. Stud running backs like Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey may outproduce Kelce on a week-to-week basis, but their production over other starting FFL RBs you can grab in later rounds won’t be nearly as wide as the edge you can gain here at TE.
Kelce’s points per game advantage of 10+ over more than half the starting tight ends in your league is a far greater differential than you can find at any other position. The simple indisputable fact remains, barring injury you have gained a significant edge over your league mates when you place Kelce in your starting lineup.
Tier II – The Darren Waller v. George Kittle Debate Tier. Miss out on Kelce in your draft and these are the only clear impact players remaining at this barren position. They’ll both project as top 25 redraft picks, so definitely worth acquiring in the 2nd or 3rd round of your 12-team leagues. Waller outproduced Kittle in 2020, but Kittle is still the closest thing we have on this planet to an immortal superhero such the likes of Clark Kent or Steve Rogers.
Despite being a year younger, Kittle’s aggressive seek out the contact and run through the defender style has left him more beat up and susceptible to injury. Waller was a complete unknown just two years ago at this time, but improved upon his 2019 campaign despite many projections he’d suffer from the additions of Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards into the Raiders arsenal.
Waller seems to be the safer pick of the two here, but there’d be little surprise if Kittle returned to the ranks of where he was with Kelce statistically in 2019 if he manages to stay healthy through an entire season.
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Tier III – The Everyone Else Tier. Look no further than the 2020 year end stats. In a 12 team league, Mark Andrews (#4) outproduced Eric Ebron (#12) by a mere 2.7 points per game. 2019 draft darlings Hunter Henry, Noah Fant, Evan Engram and Zach Ertz all failed to live up to expectations. Miss out on Kelce, Waller and Kittle in this year’s draft and you’re best off waiting a few extra rounds to grab your starting tight end. Same goes for the back up TE position on your roster as the difference between the 13th and 24th ranked TE is minimal as well.
Sure there will be some bust out possibilities you may want to reach for a round ahead of where you think they may go. My 2021 breakout tight ends include Robert Tonyan, Dallas Goedert and Irv Smith. Tonyan enjoyed a successful third season of his young career and he’ll still be catching passes from the great Aaron Rodgers in a high scoring prolific offense. Goedert and Smith are both young as well, and finally appear to be free from the shackles of playing in the shadows of seasoned veterans Zach Ertz and Kyle Rudolph. This is ahead of the NFL draft and incoming rookie class headlined by Kyle Pitts. Pitts has drawn comparisons to T.J. Hockenson, rounding out the depth at a fantasy position that doesn’t have much variance in the rankings from fourth down to 24th.
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