Quarterbacks to Avoid
It’s that time when we get all tingly with the hype of any player in the NFL. The NFL 2022 season will prove exciting with all the movement of key players. Especially the movement of the quarterbacks, some quarterback enhanced their teams and our fantasy chances, while others are just building us up to completely destroy our fantasy souls. These my friends are the quarterbacks to avoid.
5. Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Jones finished last season as QB18. That was with Josh McDaniels as the offensive coordinator. McDaniels is now gone, and it appears that the offensive coordinator position will be by committee. Waiting in the wings is Joe Judge and Matt Patricia
Jones 2021 stats: 521 passing attempts, 67.6% completion rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, 62 deep ball attempts, 37.1% deep ball completion percentage, 74 red zone attempts, 60.8% red zone completion percentage; 44 rushing attempts, 129 rushing yards and six red zone carries.
The Patriots added rookie speedster Tyquan Thornton in the 2022 NFL Draft. He has legitimate deep speed. They also added DeVante Parker to a wide receiver corps who last season had 14 drops. The leading wide receiver last season was Jakobi Meyers who led the team in receptions (89) and yards (906) but only finished the season with two touchdowns. A wide receiver uphaul was needed. But banking on a rookie and a wide receiver who only managed to 10 games last season, finishing as WR70 in fantasy points is little too optimistic for my taste.
And here is the rub, The Patriots were/are a run-first offense. They ran the ball on 45.73%, seventh-most in the league. Jones averaged 31.8 passes per game, 24th most in the league. They finished eighth in rushing yards (2151) with 24 rushing touchdowns.
The passing offense was adequate but unimpressive even though Jones finished sixth-highest passer rating (92.5) and second-highest completion percentage 67.6% in NFL history for a rookie quarterback with at least 300 attempts. But for the NFL as a whole Jones ranked 14th in pass attempts.
And now offensive-minded McDaniels is gone, and Matt Patricia and Joe Judge may be leading the Patriot’s offense. And if the thought of Patricia calling offensive plays doesn’t give you pause for thought, remember this, in non-garbage time situations the Patriots ran the ball the fifth-most of any team in the NFL.
Jones is currently coming off mock drafts between rounds nine and 10.
In single quarterback redraft leagues, he’s not worth the capital. In flex or super-flex there are better options to take a gamble.
4. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Let’s make this short and sweet, the question with Watson is not “can he” it is “will he or won’t he”? That is will he or won’t he see action on the field?
The NFL can take the route of the MLB and give Watson a heavy suspension (Trevor Bauer’s two-year suspension for sexual assault accusations), or they can be slightly more lenient. Is there any doubt that Watson will miss some time on the field?
In 12-team redrafts, fantasypros.com currently has Watson going at the end of the second round. That is a lot of capital to spend on someone whose playing status is up in the air.
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3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphin’s first four games are against the New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals (away Thursday Night Game). The Bills’ defense was first against the pass allowing 176.7 passing yards per game; Patriots were fourth allowing 193.8 passing yards per game. The Ravens were dead last allowing 278.9, but Tagovailoa met them last year and scored 12.3 fantasy points. And Cincinnati was ranked 26th allowing 248.7
Last season nine quarterbacks averaged 20 fantasy points per game, Tagovailoa averaged 13.9. And then there is the health concern, Tagovailoa played 12 games in 2021 and nine games in 2020.
But hey there is reason for optimism, and they are Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Chase Edmonds, and offensive-minded head coach Mike McDaniel. McDaniel for his part is throwing all kinds of optimism Tagovailoa’s way, “I’m really excited moving forward because the guy has some skills that I think are untapped. I think his best days are in front of him.” Filtering for coach-speak, the Dolphins did pick up some shiny new weapons for Tagovailoa.
Last season Tagovailoa attempted 388 passes (27th in the league). He had 28 deep ball attempts, completing 50% of them (1st in the league, 57 red zone attempts, (21st in the league) completing 64.9% of them (1st in the league) finishing with a completion rate of 55.2% of passes over 20 yards. Tagovailoa’s fantasy potential rides on his ability to run with the ball. Last season he rushed 42 times for 128 yards and three rushing touchdowns. Maybe?
There is a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and some new players in town. McDaniel is expected to roll out a version of the West Coast offense that is heavy on play-action passing. In 2021, Tagovailoa was fourth in completion percentage of play-action passes (69% completion).
The question is do you believe that Tagovailoa’s pedestrian fantasy results are a result of him reaching his plateau or shotty situations?
Tagovailoa is to be avoided as your QB1 in redraft leagues. In super-flex leagues, he is worth a pick as you can dodge his games against the Bills, Patriots and AFC North opponents, and bet on his new weapons giving him a fantasy boost.
2. Matt Corral/Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
This is less an indictment of the players (well sort of) and more of the coaching staff. It is no secret the Panther head coach Matt Rhule is on the hot seat. It is also no revelation that Darnold is on a short leash.
Last season Darnold started out on fire. In his first four starts he passed for 279 yards and one passing and one rushing touchdown versus the New York Jets; passed for 305 yards and two passing touchdowns versus New Orleans Saints, 304 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns versus the Texans; and 302 passing yards two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys. And then he shat the bed. In the seven starts after that, he had a total of four passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
So now after eight coaching changes including offensive coordinators Joe Brady and Jeff Nixon out the answer appears to be Ben McAdoo. But there still lurks Darnold and rookie Corral to pin your fantasy hopes?
There is no reason Darnold or Corral should be on any of your redraft rosters. You may, however, want to take a shot at Corral in your dynasty leagues.
1 Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons
Ask yourself who is catching the Mariota’s passes? And then question when was Mariota last on the field with meaningful playing time? And then ponder how long will it take Desmond Ridder to be under center?
BETMGM.com has the Falcons +550 to make the playoffs and -800 to miss the playoffs. Too lofty of expectations for you? Then go to regular-season wins they are -105 to win over 4.5 games and -115 to win under 4.5 games. Based on predicted win totals, the Falcons have the 23rd hardest strength of schedule.
Most of this gloom and doom isn’t a mark against the potential of Mariota (although justifiably so) but rather the fact that the Falcons are definitely in a rebuild mode and the current lack of weapons (no disrespect to Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, or Drake London) will not end well for either the Falcons or your fantasy team.
Wrapping It Up
First, know the scoring in your league are the quarterbacks being penalized for interceptions or sacks? How much? Will the quarterback get extra points for throwing over a certain amount of yards and is a premium placed on quarterback rushing stats? How much?
It matters. But for these five quarterbacks, QB1 is not in your fantasy future.
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