As we gear up for fantasy draft season, let’s explore 3 players I am higher on and lower on than most. I gathered the average draft position (ADP) from a variety of sources I respect, didn’t want to just pick on one person. I am valuing these through the lens of a 12 team re-draft league, standard rosters and format. Assume PPR but my opinions don’t change regardless of scoring to be honest. As always, feel free to provide any feedback on twitter (@HodgesHotTakes).
Quarterback
PLEASE NOTE: I am addressing this through the lens of a superflex league where drafting QB’s is much more valuable. If you are doing a 1QB league, I am generally higher on any QB you can get in the 10-12 range instead of drafting one early. In other words, I will load up at other positions and then stream the QB position.
Higher than Most:
Matthew Stafford (ADP: QB13)
Stafford was having himself a year until he went down with an injury. I expect him to come back strong and will pick up where he left off. No matter how hard Matt Patricia tries to slow this offense down, they are best when letting Stafford go up tempo and rip it to his talented pass catchers. If he stays healthy, he should easily be a top 10 QB and one of my favorite targets when waiting to draft a QB.
Jared Goff (ADP: QB18)
I am not a fan of Goff, but the Rams team is going to start paying the price for their overspending the last few years. This will lead to the defense giving up more points, which in turn means Goff will be forced to throw it more. They also lost their talented RB so it isn’t likely they can be aggressive with the ground attack. They still have enough talented pass catchers to help him out. His INT’s might get ugly but the garbage time yardage should be there as well. He has potential to be a top 12 QB.
Teddy Bridgewater (ADP: QB26)
Another QB I am not necessarily a fan of, however, his path to success is to get the ball into the hands of the awesome playmakers as fast as possible. The likes of CMC and Moore will do enough after the catch to hide his inabilities as a downfield passer. Currently being viewed as a last ditch QB2 in Superflex leagues, I think this offense will allow him to get inside the top 20 of QBs.
Lower than Most:
Kyler Murray (ADP: QB3)
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This is being a little picky, but I would not choose the sophomore QB over established players like Dak, Wilson, or Watson. The talent around Kyler paired with his rushing upside makes him appealing but I am seeing people grab him in the 1st round of Superflex leagues. I have him as the QB6, which is still really good, I just don’t have him pegged as the next Lamar Jackson.
Cam Newton (ADP: QB12)
I have seen people push to have Cam as a top 12 QB. This is a very dangerous proposition. The Patriots should have a dominate defense which means Cam will not be asked to put the team on his back like he did in Carolina. This also means his rushing opportunities should significantly decrease as the Patriots want to keep him healthy. He is only going to be asked to make solid throws and grind out the game, something he was never the best at anyway. I won’t be drafting him in the top 20, too much risk.
Gardner Minshew (ADP: QB22)
People can’t get enough Minshew magic. Unfortunately, he is tied to quite possibly the worst team in the league. I fully expect Jacksonville to #TankforTrevor/#LoseforLawrence by mid-season. Fournette is likely to be shut down at some point. They will limit other skill position players in an effort to get the first pick. The fix is in for poor Gardner. He brings attention to the team because of his swag and the Jags will dry up that well and then toss his aside in the offseason.
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