As we gear up for fantasy draft season, let’s explore 3 players I am higher on and lower on than most. I gathered the average draft position (ADP) from a variety of sources I respect, didn’t want to just pick on one person. I am valuing these through the lens of a 12 team re-draft league, standard rosters and format. Assume PPR but my opinions don’t change regardless of scoring to be honest. As always, feel free to provide any feedback on twitter (@HodgesHotTakes).
Running Back:
Higher than Most:
Matt Breida (ADP: RB37)
A lot of people I respect in fantasy football are banging the Jordan Howard drum. If I can get Breida as my RB4, I am thrilled and would even live with him as a low end RB3 if I want to strengthen my team in other areas. Injuries are always a concern but when he gets the ball in his hands, he is ELECTRIC. He is the perfect fit for this young offense. While Howard might vulture the short yardage scores, I think Breida will offer standalone FLEX value.
Chris Carson (ADP: RB20)
Chris is being drafted as a middling RB2 for most teams, but nothing this offseason demonstrates to me he can’t be a back end RB1. Penny won’t be ready for the start of the season and Carlos Hyde won’t be a threat to many carries. Carson is in the last year of his contract and I expect the Seahawks to ride him until the wheels fall off. It looks like the popular draft strategy will be to go RB-RB in first two rounds, grabbing Carson is round 3 or 4 allows you to pivot without sacrificing that RB2.
Veteran RB’s (ADP: Varies)
Veteran RB’s facing rookie competition (Mack, Jones, Henderson, Ingram, K. Johnson) will have a leg up with less time to prepare for the regular season. Each of the aforementioned players can be drafted AFTER their rookie counterparts are selected. These veteran players shouldn’t be targeted as startable assets, but offer valuable depth on the bench, especially early in the season.
For those who want to galaxy brain their league, I think you see the rookie RB’s take the reigns in the second half of the season. So grab those veteran assets in the draft and sell them high and try to grab the rookies at a bargain price if they don’t see much time in first month of season. The veteran RB’s will get you to the fantasy playoffs but the rookie RB’s will be the ones who win it for you.
Lower than Most
Dalvin Cook (ADP: RB5)
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This is being written before training camp so plenty can change, but right now Cook is being drafted on the assumption he will report during training camp. That’s a risky proposition for your first round pick and I hope I am not in a spot where I am considering taking him and don’t have complete information. I give this a 50/50 chance he is playing in week 1 and even if he misses one game, it’s enough to move him down the board a bit. This is before we even account for his injury history. He is too risky for me to anchor my fantasy squad on his talents.
Leonard Fournette (ADP: RB15)
The Jaguars offense seems to be creating a quiet buzz about their value. I am seeing Minschew and Fournette trending in a lot of respectable draft boards. You will hear the buzzwords, “volume” and “touchdown positive regression” attached to Lenny. While I wouldn’t argue that high volume is fantastic for an RB2, there is too mich risk associated with him in my opinion. Fournette is on the best terms with the team (and vice versa) and I fully expect this team to be one of the worst in the league. If they are abysmal by the midway point, this team will enter full tank mode to get Trevor Lawrence or Josh Fields. I think it’s a realistic possibility Lenny is phased out or even deactivates towards the end of the year. Something I do not want from an RB2 if I am trying to win a championship.
Le’Veon Bell (ADP: RB18)
Bell is in a similar situation to Fournette, an expensive RB on a potentially bad offense with chemistry issues. This could very well be his final year on the lucrative contract. People flock towards perceived volume but if he finds his way into the doghouse, he won’t be around in the fantasy playoffs. I will not take a shot on Bell unless I can make him my RB3.
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