As we gear up for fantasy draft season, let’s explore 3 players I am higher on and lower on than most. I gathered the average draft position (ADP) from a variety of sources I respect, didn’t want to just pick on one person. I am valuing these through the lens of a 12 team re-draft league, standard rosters and format. Assume PPR but my opinions don’t change regardless of scoring to be honest. As always, feel free to provide any feedback on twitter (@HodgesHotTakes).
Wide Receiver
Higher than Most:
DeAndre Hopkins (ADP: WR10)
I don’t know how common it is to see Hopkins ranked this low, but I did see someone in the industry make the case to avoid him in 2nd round of drafts. Will his target share go down in Arizona? Most likely. However, Hopkins has produced as a top flight WR for 6 of his 7 seasons and most of those came at the hands of shaky QB play. Double digit TD’s are always in the cards for him and I don’t anticipate anything less than 1000 yards. I will be treating him as my WR5 and happy to take him if he falls because of a perceived lack of targets.
Robert Woods (ADP: RB18)
In most places, I see Robert Woods being ranked behind Cooper Kupp. I’m not buying it. Woods is the WR who stays on the field 90% of the time. This Rams team is also one in transition as they have not properly managed their cap situation. This will lead to a worse defense which will require more throwing. Add in the fact they no longer have a bell-cow RB and I see Woods being a VERY high end WR2 with potential to be a WR1. I will heavily consider allocating my early round capital to other positions and then nab Woods as my first WR in round 4 of drafts.
Mecole Hardman (ADP: WR55)
Mecole is a bargain if he is going off the board as your fifth option at WR. Look, he is going to be volatile but he is tied to the best offense in football and I expect his role to expand. He fared well in limited duty last year and think those numbers will pick up. If there is an injury to Hill or Kelce, he immediately vaults into being a viable weekly starter in 12 team leagues. I am happy to take that gamble and get him as my #4 WR.
Lower than Most:
Odell Beckham Jr. (ADP: WR9)
Don’t get me wrong, Beckham is a special talent, but I am not a fan of taking him as my first WR. I expect the Browns to implement a more ball control approach on offense and then balance the attack through the air. While Beckham is still the alpha, the Browns will spread the wealth around to Jarvis, Hooper, and Hunt when going to the pass. Beckham will need to find the endzone double digit times in order to pay off his current price. Since touchdowns can be so random, I am not targeting him unless he is my 2nd WR.
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Terry McLaurin (ADP: WR20)
This is 100% a reflection on his quarterback and not the talent F-1 displayed last season. I am not sold on Haskins and Terry will have to learn how to adjust as team’s scheme to take him away (he is the only talent they have). The volume should be present, but the production may be lacking most weeks. I do not want him as my WR2.
Stefon Diggs (ADP: WR24)
Stefon Diggs remains a talent but he is now going to play a majority of his games outdoors, in the cold, on a team built to win with defense and an efficient offense. Josh Allen is good but too erratic for me to want Diggs as my 2nd best WR on my team. This team will be comfortable running the ball and spreading the ball around to the other pass catching weapons. Plus, Josh loves to take the ball in himself in the redzone. I won’t consider Diggs unless he is my 3rd best WR.
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