Hot or Not Fantasy for Week 16 in the NFL

This week’s article is going to be a tiny bit different than most weeks. I am going to make it more for players that may be on the edge of start/sit territory for people’s teams. I know everyone has different types of teams so basically I just mean to say I won’t be mentioning Davante Adams or Justin Herbert or any of the studs that are lineup locks 100%. That information isn’t helpful to anyone at this point in the season. I just wanted to get ahead of that in case it looks a bit different.

As a reminder, we have two Christmas Day games this week, IND-AZ and CLE-GB. Make sure you check the inactive report to see if any players are OUT due to injury or COVID 90 minutes before each kickoff. 4:30 pm ET is the Packers game and 8:30 pm ET will be the Cardinals game.

Good luck to you all in the semifinals this week!

As always, this column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish.

HOT: QUARTERBACKS

Tyler Huntley, BAL @ CIN (Consensus Rank: QB11, My Rank: QB3)

The #1 fantasy QB in Week 15 ladies and gentlemen. Clap it out for the man.

Huntley played out of his mind last Sunday against the Packers while leading a furious comeback and was a batted ball away from completing said comeback. It can’t be understated how poised he was under pressure. It also can’t be understated how he ran the ball for 73 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. That alone made up 19.3 of his 35 fantasy points. That kind of floor is unsustainable in the long term, but there is no reason he can’t have a similar performance on the ground this week.

If I am the Bengals, my game plan on defense is to double Andrews and double Marquise. That takes away 25 of his 40 targets from last week and leaves him throwing to the likes of Bateman, Duvernay, Murray, and Freeman. I’ll live with what he does on the ground because it isn’t going to kill me in chunks as Andrews and Marquise can.

Part of Lamar’s struggles this season have been he hasn’t been able to move around and create as much time for himself as he has in past years. His OL is banged up. Huntley had little issue with that this week, only taking the 1 sack. He was sacked 3 times in his game against the Browns after Lamar got hurt, though. The good thing in the Cleveland game though? He still managed 45 yards on 6 carries. His rushing didn’t go away despite the constant pressure.

His floor is too high and unless I have a guy that I just can’t bear to bench at the QB position, I am starting Huntley.

Joe Burrow, CIN vs BAL (Consensus Rank: QB10, My Rank: QB9)

The answer for all of the blurbs this week is can you trust this person enough to start them? Burrow is the one player I find myself saying you can’t trust him… but maybe you should anyway.

He hasn’t been playing well. Only one 20+ point performance since Week 9 and it was only 21 points. The ceiling is not there. The consistency is not there. So why is he HOT this week? The Ravens’ secondary is why. They are decimated. And I know I made the same argument for Rodgers last week and he only got you a paltry 23 fantasy points. But Rodgers only had 8 incompletions. He had three touchdowns, no picks. He simply didn’t need to run up the score… until the Ravens almost came back and won. Besides the point.

Burrow is not Rodgers. But the matchup might be more appetizing for the Bengals offense, that is entering the week with a slightly banged-up Joe Mixon and three dominant pass-catchers in Boyd, Chase, and Higgins, than it was for Green Bay. The Packers have Adams but the other guys aren’t “dominant”. This is also an important division rivalry where both teams must win to stay alive for the AFCN crown. It’s either going to be a low-scoring slugfest or both teams will put up 30+. Well, you know how I think about Huntley (and I will be talking about more Ravens later). Give me Burrow to go toe to toe with the Ravens offense and the Bengals to win this game at home.

NOT: QUARTERBACKS

Dak Prescott, DAL vs WFT (Consensus Rank: QB9, My Rank: QB10)

I struggle to be able to trust Dak this week. You probably didn’t manage to win with him as your QB last week because he was so rough. His 3rd performance under 10 fantasy points this season. And frankly, I don’t see what reason you would have to trot him out there this week if you are still alive.

Since his bye in Week 7, Dak only has two 20 point fantasy weeks. In back-to-back plus matchups against the Giants and Washington Football Team in Weeks 14 and 15, he combined for a total of 20.52 fantasy points.

Here is the lone silver lining if you are still somehow holding out hope. His last 3 games have all been away. In his last 3 home games, Dak has scored 19.88, 26.34, and 25.3 fantasy points. This week he is playing at home.

Washington has been playing good red zone defense as of late. Holding opposing offenses to more FGs than TDs once they make it into the red area by a 6-3 margin over the last two games. Including 4 red zone FGs from Greg Z and the Cowboys compared to only one touchdown. Zeke has also been doing a good job at stealing Dak’s touchdowns this season and he hasn’t been running near the goal line as much this season.

I love Dak and I think he is a top QB, I just would rather start a Tyler Huntley or Joe Burrow in a game that I need to make sure I have a solid floor.

HOT: RUNNING BACKS

David Montgomery, CHI @ SEA (Consensus Rank: RB10, My Rank: RB10)

I know it hasn’t been what we wanted. Especially considering how many leagues he won people last year with his run of dominance in the fantasy playoffs. But Monty hasn’t killed you recently, he just hasn’t found the end zone.

The Bears in general have struggled to find the end zone. They only scored on a prayer against the Vikings last week as the time expired. I think this week may find you some good fortune though. Seattle is in the bottom 6 teams against the run this season. They are averaging 99 rushing yards per game to the position, but more importantly, they are giving up almost 70 receiving yards to running backs as well. In his last three games, Montgomery has 8, 6, and 5 catches but only got over 50 yards in one of those games. I like his odds of going over that total in this game.

David was also the only running back to receive a carry in last week’s game against Minnesota. Yes, he was only on the field for 70% of snaps but he has been hovering around the 80s since he has come back from injury. I expect that he will rise back up to that number in a game that I think should be competitive the whole way through.

He has 20+ point potential this week with the assumption he gets his normal receiving work.

Ronald Jones, TB @ CAR (Consensus Rank: RB20, My Rank: RB8)

I remember when I wrote that there was no way I would trust Ronald Jones in a playoff matchup. That was just last week. Oh, how the turntables… turn? I’ve never understood that. What else are turntables going to do?

As Mike states above, we have a little bit of history from last season of what Rojo looks like when he is the lead back. And yes, I think he will be the sole lead back. Ke’Shawn Vaughn got a chance last week to come in and get some work and was not up for the task with multiple drops.

Now I do have reservations about Ronald Jones as a player but when he has been given an opportunity with Brady under center he has delivered. The Bucs are not just banged up in the RB room with Lenny and Gio out for this game either. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will miss this game. Rojo is all of a sudden the 2nd most familiar face in that huddle besides Gronk and the OL (depending on AB). Fire him up as a top 10 play.

Josh Jacobs, LV vs DEN (Consensus Rank: RB12, My Rank: RB12)

For two years, all I said was just please throw the ball to Josh Jacobs. Keep him on the field on 3rd downs. He can do that role. He is good at running routes and pass-catching. Weird how I was right.

Since Gruden quit, Josh has only 2 games with less than three catches. He has 5 games with five or more catches! And these aren’t just 2-yard dump-offs either. He has over 20 receiving yards in all but one game since Gruden resigned following Week 5. His floor has completely transformed. You originally needed to pray for a TD or 20 rushing attempts for Josh to pay off and now he can be trusted as an RB2 at worst and an RB1 if he finds the end zone. Given that the Raiders’ only good offensive options are Hunter Renfrow and him, I’d say there is a decent chance each week that he does find paydirt.

Denver has been a middle-of-the-road team against the run this year and is not a super scary matchup to me, especially outside of Mile High. They are giving up 4.5 yards per carry this season. It’s true that offenses aren’t scoring a lot against this Denver defense (22 is the most they have allowed since Week 6), but the last time these teams met the Raiders dropped 34 on them. That game included a Josh Jacobs touchdown.

Cute Running Backs (Others Receiving Votes):

Jalen Hurts keeps stealing his touchdowns. According to Mike Clay’s OTD metric (which measures the expected TD’s a player should have), Miles Sanders comes in at a 4.2 expected touchdown. That is 4.2 more than he has. In fact, you have the same amount of TDs this season as Miles Sanders does. But the production is impossible to ignore. Back-to-back games with over 100 rushing yards. He had favorable matchups and gets another this week against the Giants. Maybe Jalen finally lets him have one. Keep an eye on the injury report though, he logged a DNP on Wednesday and Thursday.

I know it doesn’t seem like you can trust the Denver backfield at times. But this team wants to run the ball. The timeshare hurts both Melvin Gordon and Javonte, but with Teddy out, I think they may attack the ground game more than usual to keep the ball out of Lock’s hands. I would fire up Gordon against the league’s second-most favorable matchup to RBs in the last 5 weeks.

The Chargers are a mess right now with a COVID outbreak and Austin Ekeler is one of the men that landed on the list. The Chargers have a multitude of backs to replace him however, Justin Jackson figures to lead the group if Ekeler is unable to play. Josh Kelly and Larry Rountree will be involved without a doubt, but Justin lead the team in snaps last week with Ekeler limited with an injury. They are playing the Texans this week and I am sure that at least one of these RBs will have a touchdown. Here is me putting Justin Jackson into the universe to have his name called on Sunday.

Devin Singletary has been the lead back for most of the season but now Zack Moss is back to being a consistent healthy scratch on Sundays. Devin has taken 82% and 93% of the snaps over the last 2 weeks. He has over 14 fantasy points in both games against teams with quite formidable defenses in TB and CAR. I say that because the volume this week should be enough to get him into your starting lineup against another formidable defense in New England.

Tony Pollard partially tore his plantar fascia on his long touchdown run against the Saints a few weeks back. Partially tearing it is worth than fully tearing it because it can’t heal properly with him running and is extremely painful. That being said, after sitting out just one week, Tony returned to his normal complement of snaps and looked sharp. 15 touches for 87 yards. That was his 4th most touches on the season and he isn’t going to get RZ rushing attempts, so his ceiling is limited. But if you’re struggling with RB depth because of Ekeler, Cook, Mitchell, etc, I have enough faith in him to get me 10 points.

NOT: RUNNING BACKS

Saquon Barkley, NYG @ PHI (Consensus Rank: RB17, My Rank: RB22)

Saquon has not given you 15 points in any week this season unless he has scored a touchdown. He has only scored 4 touchdowns this year (and 2 of them came in the same week).

I know you look at your team and say to yourself how can you possibly sit down Barkley (your 1st or 2nd round pick) in the fantasy semifinals. The guy is so talented and he is so dynamic when he catches the ball. It’s true and as of late he has gotten a little more involved in the passing game. 23 catches over his last 5 games. The problem is that he isn’t turning that into chunk gains and big plays. The most receiving yards he has in any of those games is 31.

He has gotten 15 touches in every game since the bye except for one against Tampa. He has less than 14 fantasy points in all of those games except his game that he scored a touchdown. 14 points is a good amount. Normally, I am never going to complain about more than 10 points scored. But perhaps you snagged Ronald Jones on waivers this week, or maybe you have Devin Singletary on your bench, I know it won’t be easy but I would be sitting Barkley in a week that I need a solid floor and high ceiling.

For what it’s worth, the Eagles are the 7th toughest team against RBs over the last 5 weeks.

Myles Gaskin/Duke Johnson/Phillip Lindsay, MIA @ NO (Consensus Rank: Meh RBs, My Rank: Worse RBs)

Miami has two games with a running back going over 80 yards this season. Both came against the Jets. Miami flexed their muscles last week and it was all well and good. But the Saints defense is not averaging 120+ rushing yards to running backs per game like the Jets. They are averaging 71, the second least amount in the NFL.

The Dolphins have been and, probably, will continue to be committed to the run this week. A big part of the RPO (Run/Pass option) is the ability to actually run the ball or at least have the defense think that you may run the ball. The Dolphins OL is full of large humans but a lot of them are young and not as technically refined. Though they have been playing better as of late, I am not confident enough going against what will no doubt be the best defense they have faced this year.

Simply put, I don’t think any of them holds any value this week and probably won’t next week against Tennessee either. They are all droppable in redraft formats.

Devonta Freeman, BAL @ CIN (Consensus Rank: RB28, My Rank: RB40)

Last week: A total of 7 touches tied Freeman’s lowest total since before the Week 8 bye. Not a great sign of things to come. Latavius Murray got more work than he had been getting and actually out-touched Freeman. Not only that, but the leading rusher was Tyler Huntley, who is expected to be the QB again this week. That is not totally weird that the Ravens’ best rusher was the QB, but one might’ve assumed that the Ravens went more run-heavy with the backs given Huntley’s inexperience as a starter. Nope.

In fact, the Ravens threw the ball 40 times last week against the Packers. That had to do with the fact that they trailed most of this game, but I don’t expect them to be winning against the Bengals in Cincy this week either. Cincy is favored at -3 at most sportsbooks.

In a week that I feel confident in starting the #1 Ravens RB (Huntley), I don’t think there is enough room for a #2.

Additional Running Backs I Would Consider Benching:

Darrell Henderson can’t be trusted right now. The Rams finally gave him some playing time last week against the Seahawks but Sony Michel has been running so well that they can’t take him off the field. 8 touches for Darrell compared to 20 for Sony. Coach McVay said that Sony has earned a timeshare with Darrell. Worse yet, Cam Akers was activated off the PUP list and he can begin practicing. I don’t expect Akers to be back this week, but this may be the end of all of the Rams running backs this season in fantasy.

Remember how I told you last week that you should pick up Rashaad Penny in case he was actually breaking out this time? LOL. To be fair, I did say in case. 13 touches for 44 yards and only 42% of the snaps last week against the Rams. It wasn’t a good matchup and the Rams had the ball for 35 minutes, but still. I don’t think there is any scenario in which you can start Penny this week. Seattle doesn’t run enough plays and the offense is abysmal.

It looks like Jamaal Williams is set to return from the COVID list this week. I’m still not putting him in my lineup. Not only does Craig Reynolds deserve the ball after two consecutive 100-yard performances, but Jamaal definitely tested positive and we don’t know how he will fare in his first game back. He is also a player on the Lions and as much fun as they have been this year, I’d find it really hard to trust a Lions player besides maybe Amon-Ra St Brown (assuming Goff is playing).

Less than 10 touches. Less than 50% of the snaps. Those stats apply to both games that Chuba Hubbard has played in since CMC has gone out with an injury. Ameer Abdullah is playing a lot and is getting a fair share of snaps. Carolina’s offense is also in disarray and can’t be trusted to get you to the finals. Oh, and did I mention they are playing Tampa who just got embarrassed on National TV last week? They might get mercy-ruled.

HOT: PASS CATCHERS

Marquise Brown, BAL @ CIN (Consensus Rank: WR14, My Rank: WR8)

14 out of 22 WR targets. That was last week’s target share for Marquise Brown with Tyler Huntley as the QB. Mark Andrews ended up with 13 targets. The next highest player on the Ravens had 3.

Tyler Huntley is HOT HOT HOT this week and I stand to reason Marquise should be as well. Yes, I know he only had 43 yards on those 10 catches he pulled in and a long of 7 yards. But Tyler went and wanted to go to Marquise early and often. Andrews was often the deep target but that seems kind of backward to me. I think they will open up the playbook a bit more with Tyler having a full game as experience now, and that can only mean good things for Marquise, who is one of the fastest men in football. I think this will be the highest-scoring game on the slate this week and would love to hammer the Over on 45 if they would let me bet in FL again. Oh, whale.

Jaylen Waddle, MIA @ NO (Consensus Rank: WR15, My Rank: WR15)

We missed Jaylen last week while he was on the COVID list. He was activated early this week and has been able to go through a full week of practice which makes me feel better about being confident in his recovery. Tua and the Dolphins’ offense missed Jaylen the most though.

His speed and ability to turn difficult situations into easy ones solve a lot of problems for the team. The Saints have the best defense in the NFL for my money. Not because of how they stopped Brady on SNF. I said that prior to the game. The Saints have the utmost faith in their DL to not only get to the passer without a blitz but also to stop the run by themselves. That is going to make things very difficult for Miami because, as I noted earlier, they will still try to establish the run in this game. They will be left with a lot of 3rd and mediums/longs and Tua’s safety net is Jaylen Waddle. I think Tua abuses that relationship this week and we see a classic under 10 yards per catch game but 7-12 catches.

Christian Kirk and Zach Ertz, AZ vs IND (Consensus Rank: WR21, TE6, My Rank: WR16, TE4)

If you have read this article before, you know how I feel about tight ends going up against Indy. Lock them in every single week. But Kirk and Ertz are also on here because they have a grand opportunity with Hop (and possibly James Conner) out this week.

Both of these men received their Christmas bonuses early this year. Ertz had 11 targets last week against the Lions. Second only to Kirk’s 12. Zach was only able to pull in 6 of those for 74 yards, unfortunately. He was easily on pace to break 100 yards for the first time this season and they may need him to this week against the Colts who possess the ball a lot with their strong running game. Kirk on the other hand made the most of his targets. Turning them into 9 catches for 94 yards and a score.

I expect the Cardinals to lean heavily on the passing game and thus both Ertz and Kirk make the HOT list. I know the Colts are a top team against the pass over the last few weeks but they still struggle against tight ends and I don’t think the Cardinals are smart enough to know they have a choice because Kliff clearly doesn’t trust running the ball in tough times. I am firing both of them up with confidence this week.

Cute Pass Catchers (Others Receiving Votes):

Since the trade, I have been banging the drum on Odell Beckham Jr and his comeback. Everything was going swimmingly until last week’s dud. However, if you made it through that game, I am back on the train. Minnesota is the worst team this year in pass defense. They didn’t have Pat Peterson due to injury for a lot of the season and he is back (and would likely cover OBJ a decent bit), but I’m not worried. Stafford and these pass catchers have been stretching the field so much that there are openings all over the place. He is also a big threat in the RZ with 2 of his 3 TDs as a Ram coming from the red area.

The hottest name in fantasy football right now is… Russell Gage? 18+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. He has quickly supplanted Cordarrelle Patterson as the #1 option on the Falcons offense. And the best news is that they get Detroit this week! The Lions have been tougher on defense recently, especially their young corner Amani Oruwariye. I expect that he will see some of Gage in this game. But they still are the 11th easiest team for wide receivers over the last 5 weeks. He has over 60+ yards in each of his last 4 games. Let’s make it 5.

Antonio Brown makes this list because if he plays an active role in this game, he will likely be a top 10 WR this week. However, I have no idea what the plan is for him. It seems as though Arians and the team have forgiven him for his misdoings on his vaccination status, or at least they need him so bad that they have forgiven him. Stephon Gilmore is expected to be in coverage on him but I’m not terribly worried about that. Just keep an eye on his status leading up to the game.

Hunter Henry is the only player outside of the top 12 on our ranks that I think should be inside. I know Buffalo has a great defense this year but they haven’t been as dominant of late. Gronk ended up with 11.2 points against them a few weeks back. That isn’t normal Gronk numbers but I think you would take that out of Henry especially given the fact that Gronk didn’t have a TD and that is where Henry makes a lot of his bread. I think this is going to be a sneaky high scoring game in New England.

I like when athletic tight ends face up against the Raiders. Just call a couple of Slot Go’s and you can find that honey hole between the dropping LB and the deep safety. Noah Fant gets his shot this week and with Drew Lock, the gunslinger at QB, I don’t think he will be able to control himself at throwing tight-window throws. For what it’s worth, Fant led the team in receptions last week with 5. The offense isn’t producing numbers for their pass catchers but Fant is a tight end so I think you may have to trust him given the nature of the position.

The Saints are having some COVID issues right now and one of the players affected is Malcolm Jenkins. This is big news for Mike Gesicki as Malcolm was shadowing Gronk last week. I don’t know if their plan would be to employ Malcolm in that position again for this game, but he did a great job holding Gronk to only 4 fantasy points (thanks for nothing Gronk). Malcolm is still one of the most underrated players in the game and with him potentially out, I feel a lot better about his chances of a 10 point fantasy day.

NOT: PASS CATCHERS

DK Metcalf, SEA vs CHI (Consensus Rank: WR23, My Rank: WR35)

I don’t think much needs to be said at this point. You probably haven’t made it this far with Metcalf in your lineup all year given where you selected him in the draft. Matchup be damned, this offense is broken and DK is a big part of it.

The process is there. The targets are there. The connection with Russ is gone. The offensive cohesion is gone. The Seahawks are in shambles. 28 targets over his last 3 games. 48 over his last 6. Those are awesome numbers for a player of DK’s caliber. A player that is a huge red zone and big-play threat. Yet he hasn’t scored a TD since before his bye in Week 8 and that was with Geno Smith. DK hasn’t scored over 12 damn fantasy points since then either. There are WRs that do that in their sleep in this league. There are practice squad WRs that are injected into lineups because of COVID that score that many points. AND DK METCALF CANT?!?!?

Honestly, it’s not all his fault. I’m not mad at him. It’s just a game. But a damn frustrating one. The process is there but you can’t start him the rest of the season.

Additional Pass Catchers I Would Consider Benching:

I have already mentioned that Waddle is HOT and Gesicki is CUTE. Why then would Devante Parker be on my bench when he has been very consistent when he has played this season? He is expected to get the Marshon Lattimore shadow this week because Waddle plays the majority of his snaps in the slot. Don’t get me wrong, Parker will still be involved. He hasn’t got you less than 8 points in a game this season. Tua trusts him. But I don’t think you can expect above 15 points. I’d leave him on the bench.

There was a two-week period where Devonta Smith dropped 20+ in back-to-back weeks. The breakout was happening. Since then, only one outing above 10 fantasy points… and it was 10.10 points. Clunkers of 4.2 and 3.5 with a 7.0 thrown in there for good measure. You can’t live with those scores. The Eagles are running the ball at will on teams and you already know I like Miles Sanders this week if he plays against the Giants. Go down swinging with a WR that at least gives you a fighting chance.

I’ve mentioned Amari Cooper several times recently so I’ll keep it quick. Boom or bust. TD or bust. I can’t trust a WR on a team as plentiful with playmakers as Dallas to get a TD or he busts on me. Keep him on the bench.

It is a great matchup against the Texans and the Chargers are losing players like flies, but I don’t want to have to rely on Mike Williams if I can avoid it. He only has one touchdown since Week 6. From Weeks 1-5, he had six touchdowns. He only has one 100 yard game since Week 6. In fact, he only has two games above 70 yards in that span. He had four 70+ yard games from Weeks 1-5. Mike has established a moderate floor of about 7 points or so recently but I’m not sure if you can afford a 7 point outing when the high watermark has only been 20.7 points since Week 6. I don’t think the risk is worth the reward personally.

It was really nice to see Tyler Boyd turn a big play last week in the Bengals’ stalemate against the Broncos. It ended up winning me my quarterfinals match in a league actually. That being said, I don’t trust that to happen again. Boyd has been the 4th option on this offense all season behind Joe Mixon, Chase, and Higgins. He only has a single 100-yard game all season. As a slot WR, you would think Boyd would be a target monger or at least get a bounty of receptions in a few games. He has zero 10 catch games all year and only once does he have 10 or more targets. Basically, you are hoping he gets into the end zone, which he has only done three times this season. Thank you for last week Tyler, but you’re sitting this one out.

There are no tight ends that are ranked in the top 13 on Goingfor2 that I feel should be on the bench. The position is so fluky and touchdown-dependent that you just need to start your best guy and hope they hit.

On a more serious tone this week, I hope everyone has a warm and stress-free holiday. I know the holiday season is not a great time of the year for me and many others, so I hope that this article can bring you even a few minutes of joy or distraction this season. In this unprecedented age, I also hope that everyone is staying safe and being smart. No matter what your views are on the virus, I think we can all agree that we would rather not have it.

Good luck in the semifinals and I hope to see you here next week for the final Hot or Not of the 2021 football season.

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.

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