Hot or Not Fantasy for Week 5 in the NFL

Tonight on… Hot Or Not.

“WOW! He is so hot!” “Oh my god… did you see his arms?” “It’s not even fair how good he looks.” “What I wouldn’t do to be in his arms.”… Wait wait wait… what was that last one? Ohhhh those were quotes from Colton’s season on the Bachelor. Or were they???

It’s all coming up tonight on… Hot or Not.

I made some changes to the column this week. Dropped the Fantasy Dating aspect and the spicy adjectives. I felt like it wasn’t really hitting the mark of what I originally wanted to do with the phrase “Fantasy Dating”. This will be the toned-down version. If you all would like to see the more spicy version with relationship tropes, I have that one in my back pocket for next week. Let me know. Other than that, the fantasy analysis is the same. Good process, but often shitty results*.

As always, this column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish. Other than that, let’s get right into it!

_{*results may vary}

HOT: QUARTERBACKS

Matthew Stafford, LAR @ SEA (Consensus Rank: QB6, My Rank: QB4)

I generally don’t like making calls for Thursday Night games. They tend to be weird games and not incredibly predictable. However, I feel a bit more comfortable this week with a divisional game and 2 Pro Bowl QBs. You know how I feel about Russ generally if you read last week’s column, and while this is a tough Rams defense, we know the Seahawks will be able to score some points.

Plus, Vegas seems to agree with me. SEA/LAR has the 2nd highest Over/Under on the week and these sportsbooks know what they are doing.

This matchup is a favorable one for Stafford. The Seahawks are giving up the 4th most passing yards in the NFL and are in the bottom 10 defenses in yards per completion, meaning the deep ball is open against them. The Rams have 3 TDs of over 50 yards this season and 5 other 25+ yard completions. I’m calling it right here that they hit a big one in this game.

Baker Mayfield, CLE @ LAC (Consensus Rank: QB23, My Rank: QB12)

The Browns are one of those teams that play to their opponent and will be in every single game they play. They can put up 29 in games against the Chiefs or play in a ‘punch you in the mouth’ dogfight while squeaking out a win against the Vikings. The Chargers are one of those teams that can put up points and the Browns know they will have to do the same to stay in this game.

Baker put up 321 yards on only 21 completions against the Chiefs, so no I’m not worried about him not being able to get it up (wink). The question is the touchdowns. Baker only has 3 TDs (1 rushing, 2 passing) in 4 games thus far. When they get into the red zone, they are letting Chubb and Hunt bring them the rest of the way. They also have 3 FGs in the red zone this year and I think they will need to be more aggressive to make sure they are getting 6 instead of 3. We haven’t seen it yet this year, but I think this is the game Baker drops 20+.

NOT: QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes, KC vs BUF (Consensus Rank: QB3, My Rank: QB5)

I love Mahomes, you love Mahomes, he, she, me… Wumbo.

Wumbology? It’s the study of Mahomes being awesome at fantasy! It’s first grade, Spongebob! Took the joke too far? Yea I do that a lot.

Anyways, yes, I think this could be a down week for Mahomes. We do have a little bit of a sample size that suggests that could be the case. And let me be clear, a down week for Mahomes is still an awesome week. You need to start Patrick Mahomes. I just don’t think he will the QB1 (or QB3) this week.

Last season when these teams played, the Bills decided to allow the Chiefs to run all over them. They didn’t care how badly CEH hurt them, as long as Mahomes didn’t. That lead to a meager 226 yards and 2 passing TDs on 26 attempts. I think the Bills will follow a similar game plan here since it did limit the Chiefs to only 26 points. This game is going to be played in Kansas City and the Bills need to make sure the crowd stays out of this game. That means no chunk plays, nothing over the top. That is easier said than done for sure. But if the Chiefs are throwing it a ton, I feel like it would be because KC is trying to force it, rather than taking what is easy.

Tom Brady, TB vs MIA (Consensus Rank: QB7, My Rank: QB10)

Never doubt Tom Brady. I should know this by now. My entire life has been ruined because of this man (says a sad Dolphins fan). So why oh why would I have the gall to fade him? Because the Dolphins and Brian Flores, like Bill Belichick, know how to play against Tom Brady.

I say this and am basically jinxing myself and Brady will absolutely go off against my poor aquatic mammals, but I know the Dolphins defense can do this. Our offense… well I have no faith in without Tua. That is also part of it though! The Dolphins will not be able to score against this Bucs defense with their awesome front 7. Jacoby has no feel for pressure in the pocket and refuses to throw the ball early. So with the Bucs defense stopping the Dolphins offense and the Dolphins defense knowing what to do and matching up well against these Bucs playmakers… no no no Tom is gonna go off. Ignore everything I just said.

HOT: RUNNING BACKS

Nick Chubb, CLE @ LAC (Consensus Rank: RB9, My Rank: RB4)

I have Baker on the Hot list and Chubb too. I think the Browns offense steps up this week against a Chargers defense that has been gashed on the ground against CEH (100 yards), Tony Pollard (109 yards), Antonio Gibson (80 yards), and Ezekiel Elliott (71 yards). Those are all good RBs. Nick Chubb is better as a pure rusher.

While I think, the game plan for the Browns against the Chargers will be to play aggressively, and that means throwing it, I don’t think they will go away from their identity. In the last 2 games, Chubb + Hunt have combined for over 30 carries (Chubb getting 20+ in both). Chubb has the 3rd most carries in the Red Zone (17) in the NFL, and is tied for the 4th most carries (4, with Henry) inside the 5. They give Chubb the ball in the red zone and I think they go back to that this week.

When Chubb scores a TD this season? 22 and 16 points. When he fails to do so? 8 and 11.

How does all that work with my Baker take earlier? I think Hunt loses some of his red zone volume this week to the passing game. He has 3 carries inside the 5 yd line and 8 total in the red zone.

Darrell Henderson, LAR @ SEA (Consensus Rank: RB16, My Rank: RB13)

I’m going back to the Rams offense. Looks like I should probably put my money where my mouth is for the Browns and Rams’ offenses this week, huh?

Henderson has been stupid consistent in his first 3 games. Scoring above 15 points in each game and getting over 16 touches per game as well. In his return game in Week 4, Henderson handled 90% of the snaps and showed he was back to full strength. Sony Michel was a total non-factor and fumbled in his few snaps.

I mentioned this last week for Elijah Mitchell but it ended up being Trey Sermon. Start your RBs against Seattle. They are giving up 128 yards to RBs on the ground and another 72 via receptions.

Henderson is included here because I looked at him in the ranks and questioned him. But he 100% deserves to be listed as a top RB2.

Cute Running Backs (Others receiving votes):

Damien Williams is one of 2 running backs that are currently alive on the Bears roster. Between that basic requirement and him actually being fantasy relevant when given a chance in the past, I think he has a spot on your flex radar this week. If you have him on your team, you probably had a rough start to the season because you have an early waiver or you bid him up on FAAB because you needed a RB. Don’t overthink this one. Start him against the Raiders who are not particularly big-bodied in the run game on the defensive line.

Hey you. Yeah, you. Come here. I gotta tell you something. *shares secret* Michael Carter might be beginning to breakout. SQUIRREL! Yea I know, I said the breakout word, but heed my next ones. A breakout player on the Jets is kinda like asking if a tree falls down in the woods, but no one is around to hear/care, does it make a sound? Michael Carter got a season-high 13 carries last week, plus 3 targets (which went for negative yards lol), and oh look at this! They play the Falcons! You more than likely have better options because there aren’t byes yet. But if you are already down bad, you could do worse than the kid from UNC.

Baltimore made Ty’Son Williams inactive in Week 4. Latavius Murray and Le’Veon Bell carried the load for the Ravens. Who had that on their Bingo card for the 2021 season? Latavius took 62% of the snaps and ended up with another red zone touchdown. Latavius may not be making the most of his touches and he has zero receiving upside, but 18 carries plus the TD opportunity is enough for me to include him on this list against a Colts team that they should beat.

NOT: RUNNING BACKS

D’Andre Swift, DET @ MIN (Consensus Rank: RB6, My Rank: RB14)

This pains me to put into the universe because I love Swift. Not only is he a great player, but this offensive system is perfect for fantasy production. Anthony Lynn as the OC is a former RB and loves to feature RBs both on the ground and in the passing game. Swift is a huge benefactor for that. But ranked as an RB1 is tough for me to swallow considering the Lions don’t score a lot and you probably need a touchdown to hit that RB1 threshold.

Consider this… this past week, he had his highest snap share at 73% on the season, yet was still out-touched by Jamaal Williams. Now, the targets Swift gets mean more to us than an average carry, but when Swift gets more than 20 touches, he gives you 20 fantasy points. When he doesn’t? Less than 12 points.

I know he has played through questionable designations so far this year, but it is worth noting that this groin injury has not gone away since the start of the season. He will play through it, just something to keep an eye on.

Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL @ NYJ (Consensus Rank: RB19, My Rank: RB27)

This is insane. I can’t explain it. He just keeps putting up numbers. BUT I have to push back. The highest snap share he has in a single game is 42%. They are targeting him A LOT when he is on the field, but this kind of production is not sustainable.

His rushing yardage is not anything crazy. 4.4 yards per carry on 7 average carries per game. Math says about 3 fantasy points for his rushing per game. On the other side, he is averaging 17 points per game from his receiving. There are only 17 traditional pass catchers that are averaging more than that. He has 4 receiving touchdowns. Only 7 traditional pass catchers have that many.

They are playing the Jets this week. The Jets do not have a good defense. This has nothing to do with the matchup. I just refuse to believe this productivity is sustainable. I will fade him every week until I am right.

RB36, RB4, RB19, RB1. This week? A flex play. At best.

Zack Moss, BUF @ KC (Consensus Rank: RB23, My Rank: RB30)

This is not a Moss shit post. In fact, I love Zack Moss still. That being said, this game feels like it could feature more Devin Singletary than Moss.

In the positive game script Texans game, Moss and Singletary both had the same amount of carries and targets. I don’t feel like the Chiefs game will be run-heavy at all from Buffalo. Moss hasn’t been taken off the field because of an inability to catch, but it does feel like they still trust Devin more in that role. Moss always has a chance of falling into the end zone, but Josh Allen also likes to use his legs in the red zone. Not fading him a ton, but you may have better options.

HOT: PASS CATCHERS

Stefon Diggs, BUF @ KC (Consensus Rank: WR2, My Rank: WR1)

It hasn’t been what you hoped for if you drafted Stefon Diggs. But this is the week. It has to be the week. Stefon Diggs is about to go off.

The Bills know what it takes to beat the Chiefs. They haven’t been able to defeat them yet, but they know the formula.

Score a lot + Converting on 3rd Down + Being Aggressive on 4th down + Goingfor2 (shameless plug and cheeky joke FTW) = Win.

Stefon Diggs has to be a part of that formula for them to have a chance. He has been getting the targets and the air yards, but they haven’t hit the deep ball yet. 41 targets and an average of 129 air yards per game. The volume is there for him.

Unfortunately, he is near the top of the NFL in air yards unrealized with 211 total yards. The rest of that list is rookies and veterans that are not to the talent level of Diggs. He will turn that stat around.

The other part of his game that hasn’t really shown itself so far is touchdowns. He has 1 in 4 games and it happened on a broken play. The bright side? He leads the NFL in red zone targets. The positive regression is coming folks.

Pick an option. Enter your phone #. If you’re right…..Win free stuff!

Antonio Brown/Chris Godwin, TB vs MIA (Consensus Rank: WR28/WR14, My Rank: WR20/WR12)

As of this writing, Byron Jones of the Dolphins did not practice and I would guess is extremely questionable to play in this game. If he is absent, the Dolphins will have Xavien Howard on Mike Evans and then will have to decide where to put Justin Coleman. Let me let you in on a secret. Justin Coleman has not been good this season. He is normally our 2nd nickel, but has seen some primary nickel package responsibilities and has been properly torched. I don’t know how the Dolphins corners will line up. But whoever has Justin Coleman on them should be upgraded.

I really like AB in this game regardless of matchup because he still is one of the best route runners in the league and Tom torched him with us in 2019 in that one game he played for the Patriots. That is not a stat, just a gut feeling of fear and anxiety.

Dalton Schultz, DAL @ NYG (Consensus Rank: TE12, My Rank: TE7)

The Cowboys’ offense has been a bit of an enigma for me. The first week is the Amari Cooper show. CeeDee Lamb making some plays in Week 1 and 2. Michael Gallup is lost to injury. But it is OK because not only is Zeke back but so is Tony Pollard. And then all of the sudden Dalton Schultz is the top pass-catching option in Weeks 3 and 4?

I am worried that this is one of those cases where right when you jump on the bandwagon, the wheels fall off. But I can’t help but like what I am seeing. 3 games with more than 6 targets and 6 catches. 3 touchdowns so you know that Dak likes him in the red zone and they are scheming him up. Heck… Blake Jarwin has a TD too! Dallas likes TEs!

The bigger thing here is that this is an awesome matchup. The Giants are averaging 1 TE TD and 8 targets per game against them. They don’t do a great job defending the position and I think Dalton will prosper.

Cute Pass Catchers (Others receiving votes):

I originally wanted to give him a whole blurb but I don’t know what to think about Courtland Sutton. On one hand, the air yards are there. The big-play ability is evident. But, they aren’t looking for him in the red area with only 4 total targets plus Teddy Bridgewater is questionable with a concussion. I actually think if Drew Lock plays, Sutton should be upgraded. Lock doesn’t have the fear (or decision-making issues) to throw it up to Sutton when he is double covered. Sutton had 5 targets in the 2nd half alone from Drew. 24% target share. Up from a 21% target share with Teddy.

Your weekly reminder to start your players against the Falcons. I called Corey Davis having a big week last week and he paid off to the tune of 20+ fantasy points. I don’t think this game will be a blowout on either end, meaning Zach Wilson will be needing to wing it around the field. In a weird London game, I’m calling a weird thing to happen. The Jets make more big plays. I know… weird.

The Dolphins will not be winning this game. In the 4th Quarter, they are going to get their heads out of their asses and start throwing the ball downfield. That means Mike Geisicki, or possibly Devante Parker, could have a nice stat line by the end of it. I trust Geisicki a little more because the TE position is just so bad. If he gets 5 catches, that is probably good enough for 10 fantasy points given his average yards per catch.

Dawson Knox is… good? I have no clue. But Josh Allen seems to like him when he gets in close. Another member of this column last week paying off with 2 TUDDYS. You love to see it. More importantly, you love to see that the Chiefs are on the schedule this week because they are giving up the most yards to TEs this season! I don’t know how long he can keep this up, but start him this week and we can talk about it in next week’s column.

NOT: PASS CATCHERS

Keenan Allen, LAC vs CLE (Consensus Rank: WR10, My Rank: WR16)

This pains me to have Keenan here. Not only did I just acquire him in my favorite league, but he is one of my favorite players in the NFL. Always underrated.

But his upside is just so limited. His version of limited isn’t a bad thing. He can get you 100 yards still. He can get 10 catches. 20 points are attainable. But he isn’t converting in the red zone. Stefon Diggs was 8 for 11 in red zone completions to attempts. Saying I think Diggs’ TD equity will rise isn’t crazy. But Keenan is at 5 for 10… which is just not very promising.

Don’t get me wrong. I love that he is getting so many looks down there. But so is Mike Williams with 8. And Jared Cook has 6, as well. They throw it a lot in that area of the field which is good, but a 50% RZ completion rate is crushing his value for me.

For this game specifically, I like the Browns to be able to score. I like Keenan Allen to put up some points. But assuming he doesn’t get into the end zone again, I have him as a WR2.

Amari Cooper, DAL @ NYG (Consensus Rank: WR16, My Rank: WR23)

James Bradberry shadow? In 2 matchups last year with the Giants and Bradberry’s shadow, Cooper combined for less than 15 points. That is not so good.

On top of this, Cooper is already a home run or strikeout type of player. Through 4 games, he has a monster 30+ point outing, 2 games at 5 points, and finally one average WR2 day. That type of inconsistency can kill you or win you the top score of the week. With this being a weekly game, I think you have a better chance at this being a strikeout week than a home run. Cooper will have better days ahead.

Additionally, Amari is going into this matchup with a hamstring injury that may severely limit him. He has a great amount of talent, but I would consider him on my bench this week.

Kyle Pitts, ATL vs NYJ (London)(Consensus Rank: TE6, My Rank: TE12)

The talent is there but I need to see it. Heck… the volume is there too! He is the 7th most targeted Tight End! But why does Matt Ryan throw 4 TD passes and all 4 of them are to RBs? Why is Kyle Pitts not involved when they get down close? WHY DOES LEE SMITH HAVE A TOUCHDOWN?

I don’t think this game against the Jets will be terribly high-scoring. If Pitts can’t get involved when Matt Ryan is actually having an alright day, I don’t know when he will. You are probably still needing to start Pitts this week, but I like a few guys that were likely on waivers more.

I do want to thank everyone who takes the time out of their days to read my silly little fantasy football column. It does make me feel warm inside that we all can come together around this amazingly weird game. That being said…

LET’S STIFF-ARM SOME PEOPLE TO THE GROUND THIS WEEK!!! AHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

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