How to Maximize Your RB Production in Fantasy Part 2

The following is written by Dr. James Ferretti @TFSDoc

Welcome back! Let’s pick right up from where we left off last time in our discussion of running backs for the coming year. Last time we dug into the reasons why later round/lower cost running backs can be so valuable to your squad (and if you need to review part 1 of this article, you can check it out here)

Now, we’ll dig into some of the actual players who might warrant a closer look in 2022.

Part 2: Potential Low-Cost, High-End RB PRODUCTION for 2022 – The Player List

Alexander Mattison

Obligatory mention to lead off here and I would be remiss to leave him out. Dalvin Cook is a beast but he’s a big injury risk, and Mattison is a plug-and-play RB1 when he’s healthy and Dalvin is out. If ya didn’t know, now ya know, friend. Moving on.

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Rashaad Penny/Ken Walker

Originally I considered including Chris Carson here, but Coach Pete Carroll is positive almost to a fault when describing player injuries, so when he raises concerns about one of his players, I weigh that heavily and I advise that you do as well. To wit…He was pretty gloomy on the whole Chris Carson coming back from his neck surgery front all offseason – and almost on cue, Carson sadly was forced to retire from the NFL in July due to his injury. 

So, he’s officially out of the SEA RB rotation and I expect Rashaad Penny to have the opportunity to lead all SEA RBs in touches to start the year and have some real value early on. Of course, Penny has never been the picture of health himself, so rookie Ken Walker could be the next man up at any time. Both are likely to get an opportunity to be the feature back at some point in 2022, and that’s worth something no matter how bad the offense potentially is.

Devin Singletary

Sure, hotshot rookie James Cook will likely be involved to a degree, but Singletary has already gotten the vote of confidence that he will be the lead dog to start 2022, and he could take that and run with it (no pun intended) as long as he is physically able. He’s did pretty well in the lead role to close out 2021 (he averaged 19.7 PPR PPG in weeks 14-18), and anything close to that will work just fine. Even if Cook or someone else steps up and carves a bigger slice of the RB productivity pie at some point, the Bills high octane offense has more than enough juice to get productive numbers from multiple RBs.

Darrell Henderson

Is exactly the kind of player that fits what we are trying to do here – While filling in for an injured Cam Akers last year he averaged over 14 PPR PPG for the first 12 weeks of the year before injuries and Akers’ miraculous return pulled the rug out from under his playing time opportunities to finish the year. Now, he’s shown that he can produce if called upon and he’s very likely to stay involved on another high-scoring offense in LA this year even if Cam does stay healthy for most of the year (which is by no means guaranteed)…And if Akers does miss time, either due to his Achilles or some other malady – it could be “deja vu all over again” for Henderson, with another unexpectedly productive year in 2022.

Jamaal Williams

The potential was always there for J-Dub to ascend to from distant second fiddle to productive starter in Detroit. Unfortunately, right when opportunity knocked in the form of starter D’Andre Swift going down with a shoulder injury last year, COVID came knocking for Williams at the same time and took HIM out. The fantasy injury gods giveth and they taketh away, but the seeds are still in place for you to harvest at least a few RB1 level games from JW in 2022 on an ascending Lions offense if Swift is again unable to suit up at any point. 

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Tony Pollard

Unlike a majority of the fantasy football industry, I am not expecting Ezekiel Elliott to go gentle into that goodnight and fade from the RB1 ranks in 2022 or any time soon. Whether you agree with that or not, the reality is that Pollard doesn’t NEED Zeke to disappear in order for him to be productive (he had 6 double-digit PPR games in 2021 while sharing the backfield with Zeke all year).

Of course, the real upside for Pollard is if Zeke actually does miss a game or three…As the 31.2-point PPR outing, he dropped the last time Elliot missed a game in week 15 of 2020 shows us. Small sample size, sure, but without hyperbole, that is the LEAGUE WINNING upside Pollard possesses, usually available at a pretty reasonable price.

Melvin Gordon

Another unloved vet who is available at a discount (again). He may not have the upside of some of the others on the list but he played in 16 games and finished as a PPR RB2 in 2021 with 9 double-digit PPR efforts – and he could do so again even while splitting reps with Javonte Williams. Now, if Javonte were to miss time and with Russell Wilson in town, things get really interesting and the grizzled vet could EASILY approach RB1 numbers for some (or all) of 2022.

Gus Edwards

The Ravens backfield in 2021 was a spectacular example of how cruel the fantasy injury gods can be. In what seemed like the blink of an eye after he ascended to top dog in the BAL backfield following a season-ending ACL tear to JK Dobbins – Edwards was taken out for the year after suffering an ACL injury of his own. Ah, the fantasy gods truly are a fickle group.

However, when he’s all healed up, he’ll be coming back to the same situation – as an important backfield piece on a team that has favored the run more than any other team in the NFL in recent years. He’ll likely have standalone value on the basis of that alone, but if Dobbins is slow to recover or misses time in 2022, those added opportunities could lead to a true fantasy points bonanza for Gus “the Bus.”

Khalil Herbert

Here is the poster child for this strategy; valuable, but not earth-shattering production. Herbert averaged over 13 PPR PPG in 4 games in 2021 when starter David Montgomery was out with an injury. That won’t win you your league but what it DOES do is get you ~25% of the way towards “Frankenstein’s Monster-ing” your way to RB2 level production for your squad at the lowly cost of a double-digit round selection – and of course, there’s always potential for more should Monty get shelved for even longer in 2022.

Darrel Williams

We’ve already seen him usurp the starting role from a HEALTHY incumbent in 2021; ask Clyde Edwards-Helaire managers.  On second thought don’t, they’re probably still salty over it. Anyway, that 2021 effort was good enough for a mid-RB2 PPR finish. Now with a new team, Williams will likely be involved in Arizona’s backfield plans no matter what and that offense will be able to support multiple backs, but…in the weeks where James Conner (and his average of 12 Games Played for the 3 years prior to 2021) misses time, D-Will could find himself as a low-cost addition which turns into a fantasy plug and play RB1 for your squad.

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JD McKissic

Here’s a sneaky one for PPR leagues. Sure, he only played in 11 games in 2021 due to injury, but when he did play – regardless of who was “starting” at RB – he scored over 9 PPR PPG in 6 of those games. Now, I definitely get the allure of “swinging for upside” in the double-digit rounds of your draft, but sometimes those big swings come up empty…And that doesn’t help you win games.

Now, this one isn’t sexy, but if you are looking to balance out those aforementioned upside swings with an “in case of emergency break glass” player to plug in at RB on a given week due to BYE or injury, you could do a lot worse than JDMK – and you won’t have to break the draft capital bank to get him on your squad.

Dontrell Hilliard

Call this one Derrick Henry insurance. The reality is that if King Henry is dethroned by injury again, the RB opportunities will likely be split among multiple players…However, Hilliard showed out with an 11.3 PPR PPG average from weeks 11-17 last year when he got the opportunity. While hotshot rookie Hassan Haskins is on everyone’s radar this year, a titan’s share of the opportunities and the production (especially in PPR leagues) could easily fall to the unheralded vet Hilliard should Henry miss more time in 2022.

Rex Burkhead

While his career has been plagued with injuries, there is no denying that Burkhead has found ways to produce fantasy points when health and opportunity have aligned over the past few years. The latest example of this was in 2021 when he closed out the year with an average of just under 14 PPR PPG when pressed into action from weeks 14 to 18.

Now, there is no guarantee that either health or opportunities cooperate in 2022, but if they do, adding Burkhead can provide some surprisingly respectable production. Be sure to ignore the snickers of your less informed league mates. If Rex is able to catch lightning in a bottle again for a few weeks – it could easily be you and your squad that end up having the last laugh. 

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Justin Jackson

For our last player, we are going deep down the rankings and draft lists – like really deep. Now, durability has historically been an issue with Jackson – and as a result, opportunities to perform have been pretty scarce over the past few years, but…When Austin Ekeler missed time at the end of 2021 due to COVID, JJ found himself leading LOTS of fantasy squads into the finals with two double-digit PPR efforts – including a 34.2 point explosion in week 16. He’s currently somewhat buried on the depth chart in Detroit, but he’s someone to keep an eye on – and if he gets pushed into action, be ready to pounce.

Sure, there is always some luck involved in finding RB production later in drafts and on the waiver wire, but chance favors the prepared and hopefully adding some of the players above and letting them marinate on the bench for a few weeks (or keeping them on waiver wire speed dial in case of emergency) will help your squad stay strong in the event of injury, suspension, COVID, or whatever else the fantasy season throws at you.

If your team is lucky enough to not suffer through those trials and tribulations in the coming year; then rejoice, and send your gratitude to the fantasy football gods…And use this list to add some potentially high-end trade assets to your roster – or just make your team into an essentially unbeatable juggernaut if everything goes your way.

Good luck this year and may the injury odds be ever in your favor.

Drop your thoughts in the comments, let me know how crazy/wrong you think I am, and tell me, anyone, you think I missed!

Connect with The Doc on Twitter @TFSDoc and check out his book Injuries Suck but Your Fantasy Team Doesn’t Have To (available for purchase on Amazon) if you REALLY want to up your fantasy injury analysis game in your quest for fortune and glory!  

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Thanks for reading and good luck this season!

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