It’s @TheBLeagueSays here with this week’s ‘Game Plan’, where I give you plays to make for seasonal and daily roster construction, prop bets, and dynasty evaluations. Before you make any start and sit decisions this weekend make sure you check out our weekly rankings also.
Thank you, and enjoy!
Flat Route
Two weeks… it only took two weeks…
Before the New York Jets, faithful started booing a Zach Wilson-led team in his second start as a rookie quarterback and it took me back to times when Sam Darnold was booed, and to when Joe Flacco was booed, also when Trevor Siemian was booed, and that time when Bryce Petty was booed… really unless you were Josh McCown or Ryan Fitzpatrick going back nearly five years now I can’t remember a time when the Jets fans (the worst of the New York fans, let’s be honest) didn’t boo someone – or anyone really – because things aren’t going their way.
But a tough opening day matchup against former starter Sam Darnold and his Panthers followed by a loss to a near undefeated Bill Belichick coached Patriots against rookie quarterbacks happened also. Seems a bit rough to be getting on this team who is yet to be a) given a chance and b) yet to hit their stride and c) now face an undefeated Denver Broncos on the road. It could be a while before the guys in green get their first win and I’d say practicing a little bit more patience is in order.
Still, in the dirt, there’s always a seed that eventually flowers, and Braxton Berrios has looked ok at the start of the season. He’s currently ranked 19th in the league for target share with 26.1%. He’s averaging 12.2 fantasy PPG as the current WR42 and sees Denver, who are middle of the pack against wide receivers but somewhat have struggled against shifty guys like Sterling Shepard and Marvin Jones.
If Berrios and can ‘3X’ at $3900 on Draft Kings you could do worse in cash lineups at that price. I say all this knowing that Jamison Crowder ($4500) could be back this week and this segment of the article is a bust before it comes out – but just in case Crowder doesn’t play – you could do worse. Don’t be mistaken you can do better – scroll to the end of the article to find out who and why – but you could still do worse.
Comeback Route
Once, twice, three times an ‘eh, maybe’…
It’s been a tough start to the year for the Jets, Colts, Jaguars, Giants, Lions, Vikings, and Falcons who are all staring down the barrel of an 0-3 start to the season and you would think for any of these teams to come back it would be a very, very tall order. I just mentioned the Jets and the issues they’ve somewhat faced, and fellow rookie Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars look no better than when Gardner Minshew was at the helm.
The Giants couldn’t beat Washington and look hapless but now meet fellow struggler Atlanta in a game that has huge repercussions for not only Daniel Jones but you would think Matt Ryan also. The Colts are witnessing the ‘Carson Wentz Experience’ where he’s hurt already (again for the second time this year, and it’s only week three) and they’re now struggling to find a capable backup between Jacob Eason and Brett Hundley to fill in for a week or so.
Then we get to the Minnesota Vikings, who seem to start slow each week and play catch up for the second half of each game, only to lose it in excruciating circumstances most times. This week they meet Seattle, who, happens to do the opposite and that starts hot and tapers off in the back half of the game.
This game has an O/U set at 55.5 and the Vikings have gone 100% against the spread with the ‘Over’ hitting each time which would be nice if Seattle wasn’t such a wet blanket going 4-5-0 hitting the ‘Unders’ as a home favorite and also going 1-3 with the ‘Unders’ against the spread after a loss in 2020. Seattle lost last week, and are on the road week and somethings gotta give – I’ll take the -1.5 for Seattle and the ‘Unders’ going against every fiber in my body. Sorry, Skol, maybe luck is on your side in week four.
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Screen Route
Question: What do Annie Sloan, Justin Fields, and Lockways have in common…?
Answer: They’re all in the chalk business that’s what!
Look, I can sit here and tell you this, that, and the other about other quarterbacks this week that are lowly priced and have massive upside but the reality is that Justin Fields is a lock to be your starting quarterback against the Cleveland Browns (OPRK 20th vs Quarterbacks).
And I hate doing this because I was on the Bears and Dalton last week (hey, it was a price thing and a Bengals thing – why wouldn’t I?), but still, being priced at $5200 is a great building block for your lineups and his receivers are pretty cheap also to get a stack with as well.
But more enticing than that? Nothing. This game can go off. Cleveland’s had 54 points put on them in the opening few weeks and last year the Browns hit the overs at home 62.5% of the time. And this year so have their two opening games too. They concede the second most Draft Kings ppg (29.9 ppg) to quarterbacks every week. Can’t you just take my word for it? I don’t have much more to add.
Slant Route
A dime for a dozen…
Listen as soon a PFF comes out and starts talking up Daniel Jones you know something is going wrong. No really, bring up his name and the first two things that come to anyone’s mind is the ‘trip’ against Philadelphia (yeah, he tripped… he also rushed for 90 yards and ultimately got you 9 points for it also, geez) and the ‘turnovers’ where intercepts and fumbles get brought up a lot.
For what it’s worth in 2020 the Giants had the 9th fewest intercepts (Jones 10, McCoy 1), but Jones’ lost fumbles were still noticeable. Still, he had fewer than Derek Carr (8), the same as Josh Allen (6) and only two more than Kyler Murray (4). Turnovers happen to the best in the league – Jones’ issue was he wasn’t accounting for points in the other direction unlike the others I mentioned with a dismal 12 touchdowns and under 3000 passing yards.
Still, this year’s current QB5 was robbed of more points against Washington from a bogus holding call that saw a 40+ yard rushing touchdown of his called back and a muffed Darius Slayton catch from a blown coverage for a 60+ yard touchdown became non-existent, there’s a huge chance that there would be only Kyler Murray ahead of him atop of the quarterback points rankings for fantasy football to start the 2021 season.
Kind of scary when you think of it…
Anyway, here’s where the next few weeks look even brighter for the current Giants quarterback: Atlanta (most PPG to quarterbacks with 29.8), New Orleans (who flamed Aaron Rodgers in week one), and Dallas (20.9 PPG to quarterbacks). There is a massive chance that after the next few weeks Jones maintains a solid run of form heading into the middle of the year. And that’s great because that right there is your sell window wide open if you have him. Let him accrue a few more good games, then get out while the going is good, because hoping that he can keep this up without exposing more of 2020’s form is likely wishful thinking, and his successor could be on the same team as him sooner than he/we think.
Out Route
Men made of steel, soft tissue made of wet toilet paper…
HAS ANYBODY GOT A GROIN THAT THEY CAN LEND TO THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS SECONDARY? ANYONE? NO?! DANG, IT!
Not a chance in hell I’m banking on a Mason Rudolph-ran offense in 2021, or in 2020, or 2019 – I just don’t trust the guy to be a capable NFL quarterback, so much so I believe that he is on the Chase Daniel’s career path. He’s going to get replaced, and yet paid fat stacks of cash to ride the pine while someone else does the hard work. Yeah, I’m jealous – sue me!
IF he plays this week as Ben Roethlisberger misses time to injury – and that’s a relative ‘IF’ because I still don’t like the Steelers this week with or without ‘Big Ben’ and possibly without his best receiver in Diontae Johnson ON A POINTLESS PLAY MIKE TOMLIN DAMMIT IT WAS A POINTLESS PLAY THAT NEARLY RUINED HIS YEAR, but how in the hell is this mob -4 point home favorites is beyond me knowing that Mason Rudolph may be starting and that their defense is already in week 15 form – hurt and not available.
The Bengals were hot garbage last week at Chicago, so I’ll take them with the +4 on the road and the ‘Under’ of 44 hittings. This game has the potential for more 3-and-outs than there could be actual points being scored. Good luck with the recovery and rehabilitation to the hamstrings of punters Pressley Harvin and Kevin Huber…
The Go Route
We wanted to see him close the gap, and he’s not letting us down…
Good: T.J. Hockenson; current TE3 that’s averaging 23.2 ppg with a 21% target share of Jared Goff’s offense who is leading the league in pass attempts.
Bad: Baltimore vs elite Tight Ends; who have given up an average of 30.8 ppg to tight ends, however, the two they have faced have been Darren Waller and Travis Kelce – the two best tight ends in the NFL currently. So, ok maybe we can cut them some slack to an extent. Still, on average that’s 14.5-9.5-122.5-1.
So: T.J. Hockenson gets to play against Baltimore this week and is the current 5th highest priced tight end at only $5200. Normally I would try to find a bargain at tight end on the cheap but my god is Hockenson right now a bargain, and considering how much the elite options in DFS can cost – I would consider this relatively cheap.
Hail Mary
Old grey mare…
Everyone has a tell. It doesn’t have to be blatantly obvious, but even Hansel and Gretel knew that the tiny breadcrumbs left on the ground would be enough to find their way home. And find our way home we shall. I mentioned a Jets player earlier about being a price value but that’s purely a volume chaser.
Braxton Berrios is getting good enough volume in a (let’s face it) currently bad offense. But what about good offenses? What about cheap guys on good teams we overlook? Constantly? Washington currently has this weird stigma of being a vaunted defense but at times they, and their secondary, prove they are anything but.
Enter incredible, savvy, route running machines.
In week one, the ‘FT’ hocked up 13-9-100 (19.0 points) to Keenan Allen, then gave another generous stat line of 10-9-94 (18.4 points) to Sterling Shepard. And here we are in week three and now we see the Bills as the next team-up, and Emmanuel Sanders ($4200 vs OPRK 29th vs wide receivers) is the guy that’s about to reap the benefits.
Leading Buffalo receivers in aDOT (17.36 ypt), he is also second in the team for air yards (243 air yards) and receiving yards (100). Now there’s a huge chance that Stefon Diggs goes freakin’ bonkers and nothing else happens – a massive chance that’s the case.
Buuuuuut… I don’t need to pay up for Diggs to get a nice stack with Josh Allen ($7000) in a game that could reach well beyond the 45.5 points that have been currently set. See – I told you that you could make Braxton Berrios turn into something better and for only an extra $300 – you just gotta have a little faith in ya guy – I got there, eventually…
I want to thank you for checking this article out! As always you can follow me at @TheBLeagueSays and feel free to check out my @GothamCity_STR podcast out (Linktree) – subscribe, rate, review, share, and listen.
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