The following is a live Twitter debate between Ryan Cearfoss and Chris Moshinskie. Ryan, at the time of this posting has CeeDee Lamb in his Top 5, while Chris has him outside the Top 20. Color coded to separate each person.
Geoff Lambert ❌ @GeoffLambert77
“Is Ceedee Lamb a Top 12 WR in 2021” Twitter Debate vs READY? FIGHT! #FantasyFootball
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
In a string of reasons, let’s start this off plain and simple. Lamb is not a top 12 wr this year because there’s just not enough targets to go around. He’s still behind Cooper for that first look
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
To thst point Dallas attempted 615 pass attempts last year Just a 17% market share is is 104 targets 20 % is 123 While Cooper is there that type of volume is easy in that offense
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
I do think lamb can get close to that 20% share. The issue is, the cowboys won’t throw as much this year I think. That’s the first time tho that they threw over 600 times. The prior 3 seasons, Dak averaged 32-33 attempts a game not 37-38. And def not the 48 last year early on
600 could be more easily obtainable given the extra game
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
Yeah but every other WR in the league has that extra game too, not just the cowboys.
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
CeeDee Lambs 16 game pace with Dak at QB Tgt-128 Rec-92 Yards-1385 Tds-9.6 Ppr points-284.5 Final rank-WR5
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
That’s 4 games. And Dak threw 50 times a game. So are we saying he’s throwing the ball 850 times this year. Sure those numbers are impressive but anyone can get 90 catches with that much volume. It’s not possible to maintain that volume
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
35 per game with dak is enough with his high completion percentage to produce
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
I’m a math guy so with 20% share and being ncie with a 70% catch rate, that’s not even 5 catches a game. You can’t put up top 12 numbers with that unless you pull a Thielen and bring in an insane amount of touchdowns
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
Also we have a hurt Cooper now. Lamb and his targets increase every day he had with Dak ending with an 11 tgt afternoon’. Dak was smart enough to know where the talent is.. It’s time for the rest of us to
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
Cooper is still getting paid $20 million a year. He’s not going away. Injury then sure, obviously he’s away but with him in there. He’s getting his share first. Not wasting money to have him play 2nd fiddle
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
20 mil is great so is an early first
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
A first which was spent after Amari was paid. So what do those tea leaves tell u
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
That 2022 is his year lol
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
Amari is old enough we know his ceiling
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
He was WR 15 in PPR last year with those terrible QBs. He’s still going to be WR1.
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
Also his health history
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
Coopers health history? He’s missed 3 full games in 6 years. He’s reliable
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
His time will come with that investment but not 2021
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
20 is truly lowballing playing out of the slot with out facing cb1s
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
I think Jarwin competes for some of those shorter and mid range targets. But another point id like to make is their strength of schedule. Dallas has the 4th hardest schedule for WRs this year.
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
That’s all well and dandy based off last year. We’re also looking at a team with no defense that’s going to live in shootout mode
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
They do have an easy overall schedule so that matched with Dak, they are better than 8-8. They will have many more leads this year compared to the DiNucci days lol. More opportunities for Zeke and Pollard to finish games
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
What offense are they stopping?
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
I won’t argue that they aren’t scoring 30 a game. There’s too many wideouts in the league that will get their consistent share with less competition. Give lamb time to get that opportunity but for that reason as well, he won’t score every week
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
Talent tends to get to the top and he’s an elite skillet. Well rounded. Great route runner, can win over the top and phenomenal after the catch. He’s the full package
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
The cream does rise to the top. Lamb has the talent and I’ll never argue that but it’s not in his cards this year. Only way is if Cooper does miss time.
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
Which he’s already dealing with a soft tissue injury
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
I just can’t rank lamb up there at this point. It’s a little premature. I knew debating this would be hard because I do think Lamb is a great WR. I’m stuck on the competition for targets and less passing than last year.
Nothing wrong with premature evaluation. At least you’re the one who gets satisfied.
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
My wife will never understand this logic lmao
Geoff Lambert ❌ @GeoffLambert77 yesterday
The Cowboys should also be a better offense. Good chance he catches more than 5 TDs next year. 🤷🏻♂️
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
It was literally 39 attempts per game with trash qb play last year
Obviously will agree. Just going off the logic of the number of the Cowboys pass plays, not Lamb being a top 12 WR
Ryan Cearfoss @Foss534 yesterday
We’re looking at a wr who finished in the top 24 his rookie year with Andy Dalton and Ben dinucci at qb
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF yesterday
Right and that’s pretty good but it was mostly just the volume. Not to mention, zeke wasn’t himself and he eats targets. Not sure your thoughts on Jarwin but he’s a pretty good TE, much better than Schultz so there’s more targets to share
Geoff Lambert ❌ @GeoffLambert77 yesterday
Lol. I forgot about Ben Dinucci. 😂😂
jeffreyd @FFPmoonman yesterday
Talent wise yes, offensive system/QB can facilitate elite numbers, defense/gamescipts should favor shootouts often, Amari Cooper potential injury, 100+ targets/touches with upside, big play capability, plays all WR spots. Have CeeDee tween 10-13 as I debate self in off season😵😁
Evan Ritter @ev_ritt3 yesterday
Lamb will be a top ten WR especially if anything happens to cooper.
Geoff Lambert ❌ @GeoffLambert77 yesterday
That’s a wrap. Thank you gentlemen. All great points. Only time will tell.
