RB Isaiah Davis – South Dakota State
6’0″ | 218 lbs.
Career Stats: (rushing) 677 att 4,552 yds 50 TD (receiving) 53 rec 487 yds 1 td
Pros
Yes, Isaiah Davis’s prolific production you see above came at South Dakota State University, an FCS school. Set aside any knee-jerk skepticism, and let’s look closely at a player who could be a value pick in the 3rd or 4th rounds of your dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts.
Davis has NFL size and a well-rounded skillset that can translate to many teams and offensive schemes. He may not have any elite traits, but he has good burst and agility, allowing him to move well from shortly before the line of scrimmage to a few yards beyond it, the most important range for a vast majority of running backs. The prototypical NFL size and his play strength often make him hard to tackle.
With questions to answer about both his ability to compete with FBS-level prospects and his ability as a pass protector and receiver, Davis showed at the Senior Bowl that he can hang in both ways, at the very least well enough for a rookie and well enough to be drafted.
It’s difficult to adjust for competition level when looking at analytic profiles, but Davis does have some good signs, including a career 6.8 ypc, 4.29 yco/att, and 129.3 PFF elusiveness rating. While his 4.57 40-yard dash time isn’t superb, it gave him a solid 100.0 weight-adjusted speed score (though right on the line of the threshold), and his 8.73 RAS isn’t bad at all. It’s the profile of a 3rd or 4th round rookie pick who fits the zero-RB world in which we live. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)
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The obvious and primary knock on Davis will be the FCS competition level he faced. While he was very productive on back-to-back championship teams and did show he belonged at the Senior Bowl, there will no doubt be more adjustment to the NFL for Davis than for a number of other prospects.
The other main concern about Davis is his overall athleticism, especially his top-end speed. He is not a burner who is going to break off a lot of long runs.
Finally, while Davis is a competent receiver, he is not a great one and certainly is not a running back who will be asked to run a variety of routes.
Analytically, some of Davis’s high-end production has to be taken with a grain of salt because of the FCS competition level. Additionally, his career mark of .30 mtf/a is right at the usual threshold line, and his 40.5% career breakaway run rate is well below the 50% threshold we like to see. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)
Summary
Isaiah Davis is a sleeper rookie running back for dynasty fantasy football. He is sort of a “jack of all trades, master of none” prospect whose outlook, like that of all the running backs in this class, is highly dependent on draft capital, landing spot, and role/opportunity. He can start as a committee back with short yardage/goal line skills with upside as a solid contingency upside back and spot starter – both in the NFL and on our fantasy teams. He is currently my RB11.
It’s early, and where and when running backs will go in the NFL Draft is still very murky, but some interesting landing spots include: Carolina (picks 102, 151, and 165), Tennessee (107, 145), Minnesota (109, 130, 156, 166), Buffalo (129, 143, 159, 162), and Jacksonville (117, 152). Really almost any team with early Day 3 picks could work out, as the NFL is always looking for running back depth.
Strengths
- size and strength
- production
- well-rounded, jack-of-all-trades
- agility and footwork
Concerns
- competition level
- explosiveness/top-end speed
- no elite trait(s), master-of-none
- low ceiling as a receiver
2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: 3rd/4th round in a 12-team, superflex, tight end premium format
Ideal Role: solid committee back with occasional upside for more
Player Comp: Tyler Allgeier, Trey Sermon, Jordan Howard, Chris Rodriguez
