We’re back for a Thursday Night Showdown. The weather has been a factor in the last two showdowns. In this one the weather looks to be perfect. The matchup itself will be a good one with some big implications in the NFC. It would be more exciting if Davante Adams were to play, even though the Packers are 6-0 without him. If they want to knock the undefeated Cardinals off, they will need some guys to step up in a major way.
The loss of Adams is huge for the Packers passing game, especially facing a defense ranked third in passing yards allowed per game at 201 yards. It leaves some big questions, but it also opens up some big opportunities for some guys. You can never count Aaron Rodgers out though, he will find a way to keep them in the game. On the other hand, the Cardinals and Kyler Murray have looked great and he’s a frontrunner for the MVP race, but the Green Bay pass defense is a top six-unit itself. They only allow 210 passing yards per game. So, on paper, it looks like the passing games could be slowed down, but I don’t think that will be the case.
Vegas News: o/u 50, AZ -6.5
Embed from Getty ImagesAaron Rodgers: ($11,400)- As mentioned the loss of Adams will hurt the passing game, but the only way the Packers have a chance to win this game is with Rodgers throwing. In both games that Davante was out in 2020, he had over 30 fantasy points. He has leaned heavily on his running backs without Adams. In those two games, he threw to the running backs a third of the time. I expect the same thing in this one. The combo of Rodgers and Aaron Jones will be in most of my lineups. It’s hard to envision a winning lineup without Rodgers, but it’s DFS and crazy stuff happens, so I won’t say that it can’t happen. Another reason I think he has a good game is because of the type of competitor that he is. He is the type who likes to prove people wrong or that he can do this or that, and I think he will put up a big game to show he can do it without Davante again. What better time to do it than a Primetime game against an undefeated Cardinals team??? Load him and Kyler up and try and get different with the other guys.
Aaron Jones: ($9,000)- Without Adams, it will cause the Packers to lean on Jones more. As I mentioned that Rodgers has targeted his running backs a third of the time when he’s not in the lineup. That will give more value to Jones and a pretty safe floor in this one. In the games without Adams, it has been Jones and Allen Lazard who has had big games. The bad thing is Lazard is out too. That is going to put even more on the shoulders of Jones. It hurts the run game some without Lazard because he is one of the better blocking receivers in the league. The Cardinals are ranked 18th in rushing yards allowed per game and allow an average of 115 yards on the ground. That bodes well for Jones who will get the carries and he will get more targets, as they will line him up out wide too. I think outside of the quarterbacks, he has the highest ceiling on the slate. My lineups are likely to start with Jones, Rodgers, Kyler, and mixing in three different guys. He is also one of my favorite captains because of the ceiling, opportunity, and salary savings from the Quarterbacks.
Randall Cobb: ($3,600)- This depends on if MVS plays or not. If no MVS then I like Cobb a lot. He has only had one big game this year, but if Adams, Lazard, and MVS are all out the chemistry and experience he has with Rodgers will come into play. That I think will cause him to be the guy that Rodgers will trust and lean on. Now if MVS is in it will lower the chances for Cobb, even if MVS isn’t on a full snap count. That is news we will have to pay attention to, but Cobb I think is a safe play with some upside, and he can be used as a cheap Captain in some GPP’s.
Amari Rodgers: ($400)- He is my favorite cheap play on the Packers side. I wouldn’t argue with you if you wanted to go A.J. Dillon, but I like the savings with Rodgers who could be the number two receiver in this matchup. The savings is one reason I prefer Rodgers over Dillon, the other is I think the Packers will be down and have to throw. That will take some of those carries away from Dillon. It’s not often you will get a possible number two receiver for Aaron Rodgers for this price in a game they should have to throw a lot. The MVS news won’t matter to me for this play either. His price is cheap enough that even with MVS active it will be hard to hurt you. With a couple of catches, he will pay the price tag off easily.
Kyler Murray: ($12,000)– I don’t need to spend much time on this and to tell you to play Kyler. He’s had one game under 22 fantasy points this year, and is a frontrunner for the league MVP. That is the type of season he is having, and I don’t expect that to change in this one. On showdown slates, I don’t like using a Quarterback at Captain, but Kyler is one of the exceptions because of what he does with his legs. That is the only question you should have about him on this slate. How much in the flex and how much at Captain?? It’s the only decision involving him that I have to make. The game total is 50, and the Cardinals have a team total of 28.5. With them being projected over four total touchdowns, it’s hard to imagine that all or most of those aren’t from the arm or legs of Kyler.
Chase Edmonds: ($7,000)- He’s been over ten fantasy points in 5 out of 7 games this year. In 7 games, he has averaged ten carries and more than 4.5 targets per game. The split with James Conner isn’t great, but Edmonds isn’t touchdown-dependent like Conner. This year he is averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game, and that is without a touchdown. Edmonds has yet to score, so I think some positive touchdown regression is coming for Edmonds. It’s just a feeling that I have, but I think he gets his first score on the year in this game. He can still have a good game if he doesn’t score. A touchdown would put him close to 20 fantasy points. I like Edmonds and I will have significant exposure to him.
Zach Ertz: ( $6,200)- In his first game with the Cardinals, he had his best outing of the year. He was able to get in the end-zone on a 47-yarder. When the trade was made I liked it for both Ertz and Kyler. It gives Kyler a dependable TE that can provide a safety net and another red-zone target. The receiving threats the Cardinals have on the outside will help open up the middle of the field for Ertz, and he should be able to take advantage of that. Just as he did in the last game. I like this spot for Ertz. The threat of DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green in the red zone make it easier for Ertz to get open in the end zone. He couldn’t have landed in a better spot to help keep his career going.
Favorite Captains: Kyler Murray, Aaron Jones, Chase Edmonds, Christian Kirk, Zach Ertz
Favorite Cheap Captains: Amari Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Rondale Moore
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
Player Projections: Kyler Murray (26.3), Aaron Rodgers (20.2), Aaron Jones (18.2), DeAndre Hopkins (17), Chase Edmonds (13.8), Randall Cobb (12.9), Christian Kirk (12.4), Zach Ertz (9.6)
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
