Like a holding call, we keep coming back. Well, for all six of you that read this. I do appreciate you taking your time to read this. For anyone that has questions, you can find me on Twitter @aaronbarnett221. I’m always available to answer any questions or concerns you may have. Now, enough of all that, let’s get down to the money and what you come her for!!!
On paper it doesn’t look like the most exciting game we’re going to have, but I believe there is some fantasy goodness in it. It’s not likely going to be a high-scoring slate, but there will be a few big contributors. I know many people will be on the Bengals passing game for good reason, but I like the run game more in this one. If the majority are going to the running game then, I will go to the pass game. We know the Bengals will be without Tee Higgins on offense, and on defense they will be missing safety Jessie Bates. The Higgins injury is the most important one. It leaves the targets a little more condensed and opens up some value.
When it comes to showdown slates, you have to tell a story with your lineup. Whichever game script you like for that team, you need that story to make sense for them. We all know lineup stacks and correlating our players is more popular than ever.
Vegas News: Cin -7.5 o/u 46
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Joe Burrow: ($11,600)- Burrow is coming off a three-touchdown performance against the Steelers. He has thrown at least two touchdowns per game this year. The number of attempts can be concerning, as he hasn’t attempted more than 30 passes in a game yet. That isn’t likely to change this game either. The Bengals were serious about making Joe Mixon a workhorse, and that has brought the attempts down and also lessens the hits on Burrow. I do think he has a good game in this spot. I don’t think he is going to be a necessity in my lineups. The skill players for the Bengals should put up points similar to Burrow, and for less the price. I’m not saying fade him completely, but I’m pretty positive he will not be Captain in any of my lineups. I normally only put running quarterbacks at Captain anyways.
Joe Mixon: ($11,000)- I’m the Captain now!!! He is only 600 dollars less than Burrow, but the way they want to feed Mixon the ball makes the price worth it. The game script I see happening is the Bengals getting to a lead and grinding Mixon and the running game. He is an appealing option at Captain because of this. Whether it’s Captain or flex, Mixon will be my highest owned player. The good thing about Mixon is, he is a true three-down running back and can’t be game scripted out. His last two games haven’t been anything big, but this feels like the spot we see him go for 20 or more.
Tyler Boyd: ($7,400)- I’m not saying fade Ja’Marr Chase, but Boyd is almost three grand cheaper and makes it easier to build. While I think Chase can have a good game, he is due for some touchdown regression. He has four touchdowns in three games, and we know that’s not sustainable. We know without Higgins in the game, Boyd should have a safe target floor. He is safer to me in this game, and the savings helps. Boyd has 15 targets to Chase’s nine over the last two games, and if you take the touchdowns away from Chase, his stat line doesn’t reflect the price at all. He might score again, but chances are he’s going to need a score to pay the salary tag. That’s why I like Boyd and him getting more targets to move the chains. In a game, the Bengals lean on the run it can limit Chase’s upside too.
Auden Tate: ($400)- With Higgins being out, it will be between Tate and Mike Thomas battling for snaps. I think we see more of Tate, and if he can get a couple of targets, he should pay this price off. He is my value punt for the Bengals side. If the Bengals do get out to a lead early, they may let some starters rest some.
Embed from Getty ImagesJames Robinson: ($9,400)- The Jaguars realized to limit the pressure and mistakes on Trevor Lawrence they need to run the ball more. That works out well for Robinson, who had his best game of the season in last week’s game. He is coming off a 21 touch outing, and I expect that to be a consistent number for him as the year goes on. It was a surprise to see the Jaguars go running back early in the draft when Robinson has been solid, so now he has the chance to prove that they made a mistake and I think he is hungry to do that. They just have to give him the proper workload. Most of us expect the Jags to be down and having to throw, and that’s perfect for Robinson who had six catches last week. Either way the Jags game plan, it will involve a heavy dose of Robinson, and that’s why he is my favorite play on the Jags side of the ball.
Marvin Jones Jr.: ($8,600)- The Jags passing game has struggled, but Jones is the one consistent pass-catcher on the outside that they have. In the three games that he has played, he averages over nine targets a game. There are other options at receiver, but it seems Jones has become the favorite and the safety net for Trevor Lawrence. I expect that to continue in this game. We should see Jones get eight or more targets again, and outside of Robinson, he is the one I trust the most.
Laviska Shenault Jr.: ($6,600)- He can be a good GPP play. As of right now, he’s battling D.J Chark for any of Marvin Jones’ leftovers, but he is the one that runs all of the short routes. If the Bengals are able to get a solid pass rush then Shenault could see more targets and he is capable of breaking one for a long touchdown. There was some hype around Shenault and Chark, but both have become afterthoughts to Jones, and in part because of how bad Trevor Lawrence has been in the passing game. I bet the Jags front office are really kicking themselves for not going offensive lineman in that first round. You can play Shenault and hope he sees some extra targets and is able to have some PPR value. I think in this one he is the better option than the touchdown-dependent D.J. Chark.
Carlos Hyde: ($1,800)- Hyde is just a value punt on the Jags side. He likely has to score a touchdown to have double-digit fantasy points though. If the Jags decide they want to try and run the ball more to help Lawrence out more, it could lead to more carries for Hyde as well. Now, if that were to happen then he should easily pay off this salary tag. It’s all about game the script and how you think it’s going to go. That will determine how much you like the Hyde value punt or not.
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Favorite Captains: Joe Mixon, James Robinson, Tyler Boyd
Contrarian Captains: D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault Jr.
Cheap Captains: Auden Tate, Carlos Hyde, Dan Arnold
Others To Consider: Trevor Lawrence, Ja’Marr Chase
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