Will we see the legend of Mike White continue to grow?? Another big game from White could potentially raise some questions in the Jets organization. I know there is one person out there that’s happy with Mike White last week. I’m not sure what made them bet Mike White to lead the week in passing yards, but WOW!!! You talk about a gamble that paid off big. Now the whole world will get to see him play in a Primetime game. We’re going to see if White will stay hot or not in this one.
Vegas News: Indy -10.5. o/u 46
Embed from Getty ImagesJonathan Taylor: ($11,600)- He comes in as the most expensive player on the slate, and for good reasons. Over his last five games, he has averaged 26 fantasy points per game. If that isn’t reason enough to play him, the Jets are last in DVOA against the RB position. They allow 32.8 fantasy points per game to RB’s. It has the makings for another monster game from Taylor. Now those are two great reasons to play him, but I will give you another one. The Colts are 10.5 point favorites. That should be the recipe for a heavy dose of Taylor. He checks all the boxes. One of the hottest RB’s over the last five weeks, and he is at home in a dome, and in a game that they’re favored by 10.5. I don’t see how he gets less than 20 touches or targets, and I don’t know how I keep him out of my lineups.
Carson Wentz: ($10,800)- The change of scenery has worked out for Wentz so far. He has been a serviceable fantasy QB for the most part too. His price usually isn’t real high, and he has only had one game below 17 fantasy points this year. In the last 3 out of 4 games, he has gone for 20 fantasy points or more. With Jonathan Taylor getting hot on the ground, it has helped create more time and open things up for Wentz. The Jets have been bottom five in passing yards allowed per game. They allow an average of 275 passing yards per game. That could create some opportunities for Wentz, especially if the run game is as effective as it has been. There really isn’t a lot of great plays on this slate, so Wentz makes the cut by default really. Especially if you’re playing cash games or single entry GPP’s.
Michael Badgley: ($4,400)- I like Badgley in this one. The Colts are big favorites and the Jets are 31st in DVOA to kickers. They allow an average of 11.7 fantasy points to the position. I have him projected around nine fantasy points right now. That looks like a solid floor in this matchup, and with there not being a lot of great plays, he could be good value. You’re going to have to find some value if you want to try and get the Colts top three in your lineups. So, Badgley is one of my favorite values on what could be an ugly and low-scoring slate.
Ashton Dulin: ($200)- We know that T.Y. Hilton is out. That will create some chances for some guys outside of Michael Pittman. One of those guys has been Dulin. He has seen four targets in back-to-back games. It seems he will work as the third receiver for the Colts with the Hilton injury, and he is playing on almost half of the snaps. For $200 it’s hard to pass that up. When you’re going for the super cheap value on showdown slates, you need to find someone that is getting a decent amount of snaps and chances. At this price, it’s going to be hard to hurt your lineup honestly. If he is able to make something happen with the targets he gets and you don’t have him it’s going to be hard to make that up on this slate. That makes Dulin one of my favorite plays on the night. The salary lets you jam anyone in the lineup that you want.
Mike White: ($9,800)- We get to see if White can build on his big week or not. He did have some turnovers, but he was able to complete 82% of his passes. That type of completion percentage isn’t sustainable, but it shows he can be accurate. What is misleading about his big game is the yards after the catch for his receivers. On 45 attempts last week his average pass traveled just 3.7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. The Colts might be better at keeping the receivers in front of them and limiting those big runs after the catch. The one thing about those short throws is they’re usually high percentage passes. The other thing is the Colts defensive scheme. They play a heavy zone scheme and that’s exactly what they want teams doing. The defense concentrates on preventing the big plays and allowing a lot of the short throws. So, that could work out well for White, but it will also limit some of those big gains after the catch. As I mentioned before, this slate doesn’t have a lot of great plays, so White is a good play in cash games and single entry or three max GPP. The QB’s have the higher and safer floor, so on an ugly and low-scoring slate, you want to take advantage of that. It also helps that they’re big underdogs, which means White should be throwing and some good garbage time stats.
Jamison Crowder: ($7,800)- We know Corey Davis is out and that should make Crowder the top receiver for the Jets. In the games that he has played, he has had at least six targets. In the last game, he had nine targets, with Davis not playing. I think we see him get close to that number again, and with the potential for a few more. The Colts are in the bottom third in fantasy points allowed to WR’s. They give up an average of 32 fantasy points per game to the position. That should add up to a good night for Crowder. The Jets are likely to be down and throwing most of the night. All of those are great signs for Crowder, who plays in the slot and runs those short routes that White likes to throw. It also helps that the Colts will allow those short routes. He may not break any long gains, but if he’s getting nine high percentage targets, he should be able to turn in a solid stat line.
Elijah Moore ($6,200)/ Keelan Cole Sr. ($2,400)- One of these guys is going to step up and help Crowder. It was Moore last week who was able to turn his six targets into six catches. He made the most of those targets and finished with 67 yards. As for Cole, he caught 3 out of 5 targets for 25 yards. So, they’re both going to be involved without Davis in the offense. We have to figure out which of the two we like the most. If you want to go Moore I wouldn’t fault you at all. I prefer Cole because of the savings. If he finishes close to Moore for almost $4,000 less, it can pay off big, as long as you used the savings in the right spot. I’m trying to figure out ways to jam the top guys for the Colts in, so I want the savings.
Favorite Captains: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Jamison Crowder
Cheap Captains: Ashton Dulin, Keelan Cole Sr.
Projections: Carson Wentz (20.4), Mike White (16.8), Jonathan Taylor (21.3), Michael Carter (13.7), Michael Pittman Jr. (16.2), Jamison Crowder (13.2), Zach Pascal (9.6), Ashton Dulin (5.8), Michael Badgley (9)
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