It’s Thursday!!! That means we’re back for Thursday Night Football and another showdown slate. I doubt the Eagles are as happy about it though. They haven’t practiced all week, they’re being told to look through old emails of Tom Brady. They are hoping to find something to keep him from playing in the game. Do you blame them?? I wouldn’t at this point. The man is 44 years old and somehow looks better, and if he stays on pace, he has a chance to break the passing touchdown record. There isn’t anything he does that surprises you now, so why would that??
As for the game itself, here is a breakdown of the teams. It’s a tale of two different defenses. On the Eagles side, they’re third in the league with 194 passing yards per game allowed, and the Bucs are dead last at number 32, with 314 passing yards allowed per game. When it comes to the rushing defense, the Bucs are number one, and only allowing 45 rushing yards per game. As for the Eagles, they’re number 30, and allowing 142 rushing yards per game.
In this matchup, I’m going to attack the Eagles through the air. They have a solid pass defense, and they’re number twelve in fantasy points per game allowed to the QB. They allow an average of 17.7fppg to the position. That isn’t the best number when you plan to attack them through the air, but it’s Tom Brady and in a primetime game. So, I like the Bucs passing game. The run game is definitely in play too. As for the Eagles, there were some high hopes for Miles Sanders and the running game, but I believe that ship has sailed. This isn’t exactly a get-right spot for him either. The passing game for the Eagles is the way to go also. They should be down and throwing a lot, that puts garbage time points all over the place. If you can get the right pieces, then you have a shot. Let’s get to the Vegas breakdown now.
Vegas News: o/u 53, TB -6.5
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Tom Brady: ($12,400)- I don’t need to spend much time here. You play Tom Brady on this showdown slate. He may not be throwing as much in the second half, but if you’re thinking of an early Bucs blowout, then it’s likely from Brady and the passing game. That is the way I’m going with it, and my lineups will tell that story. There will be a handful of lineups that I fade him in to try and get different, but it won’t be many. In the last primetime game against the Patriots, Brady had zero touchdown passes. I expect that to be the complete opposite in this matchup. The Eagles have been solid against the pass, but I think the Bucs have too much firepower at WR, and Brady will take advantage of that.
Antonio Brown: ($8,200)- The problem with the Bucs having the WRs they do is getting the right ones. If you’re playing multiple lineups you rotate them in as many combos as you can. If you’re playing cash games or single entry, I think AB is the correct choice. He is the cheapest of the three and you will need some salary relief. Over the last two games, he had 19 targets. With Rob Gronkowski out for this one, I think he has a safe target floor again. The Eagles have solid cornerbacks on the outside, but in the slot, AB will have the best WR/CB matchup of the three. We know how much Brady has leaned on his slot WRs over the years, and the last two games have shown the trust and chemistry building between the two. I expect that to continue and for him to have another busy night.
Leonard Fournette: ($7,800)- With the Eagles being a bottom-three defense for rushing yards allowed per game, this is a good spot for Uncle Lenny. He has taken the reigns of the number one back and has been solid with his opportunities. With Tom Brady throwing for five touchdowns, it took some upside from Lenny, but he still had 21 fantasy points. I can see this being the same type of situation. The Bucs should get out to a lead with the arm of TB12, and it should open it up for Lenny to run the clock out. In the last two games, he has averaged 21 carries or targets combined. His floor of touches should be safe again. I’m expecting between 15-18 carries with 4-5 targets. For his price tag, he should pay that off easily. From my early builds, it has been starting with Uncle Lenny at Captain. Especially in my cash games and single entry lineups.
O.J. Howard: ($2,100)- He is my favorite cheap option on the Bucs side. In the last two games he has averaged 43 snaps in each. While there hasn’t been a lot of targets, he did have three in the last game. We know Gronk is out again, so that should open up some work for Howard again. With a cheap price tag and a path to a few targets, I like Howard as a cheap play. He is touchdown-dependent, but there is a chance that one of his few targets could be in the end zone.
Embed from Getty ImagesJalen Hurts: ($11,800)- It seems no matter the matchup, Hurts finds a way to get over 20 fantasy points. The Bucs give up an average of 22.2fppg to the QB position, and I think Hurts has a safe floor with good upside in this matchup. The Eagles are likely to be down and that will lead to garbage time points for Hurts and the Eagles offense. The Eagles running backs have struggled, and it has made Hurts their best rushing threat. I expect that to continue. The Bucs are tough on running backs, and I expect them to shut Miles Sanders down. That will make everything depend on the arm and legs of Hurts. There are not many QB’s that I use at the Captain slot in showdowns, but Hurts is one that I consider because of his rushing abilities. He is the safest play on the Eagles side and one of the only ones I feel good about using.
DeVonta Smith: ($8,800)- The Bucs give up the most passing yards per game, and they’re ranked 30th in fantasy points per game allowed to the WR position. They’ve allowed an average of 29.4fppg to WRS. That bodes well for Smith. He is the one guy that Hurts is looking for downfield. With his big-play ability, all it takes is one deep shot. That one big play can make or break you. If you don’t have Smith then you would need a miracle to win big if he hits a big play. On the other hand, he and Hurts will be the two guys everyone wants on the Eagles side. So, if you fade him and he is held in check, it will help your chances. In multi-entry contests, I will have Smith in at least 60 percent of my lineups. For cash games, I don’t think he is a necessity right now.
Zach Ertz: ($3,200)- With Dallas Goedert being ruled out, it will open up opportunities for Ertz. It’s crazy to think a couple of years ago that Ertz was one of the premier fantasy TEs in the game. Now he is only relevant with Goedert is inactive. When given a chance, Ertz can still be solid. He gets more snaps and a bigger role in this matchup, and the Bucs come in at 24th for fantasy points per game allowed to the TE position. They give an average of 10fppg per game to TEs, so there is a path for Ertz to produce. If you haven’t noticed on these showdown slates, the TE position has been pretty big in unlocking the optimal lineup construction. I think Ertz provides good value, and I like him for cash and GPP lineups.
Favorite Captains: Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith
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Favorite Cheap Captains: Zach Ertz, Kenneth Gainwell, O.J. Howard
Others In Play: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Ryan Succop
Player Projections: Tom Brady (24.9), Jalen Hurts (23.7), Leonard Fournette (17.4), Miles Sanders (14.3), Kenneth Gainwell (9.2), Mike Evans (17.5), Chris Godwin (18.1), DeVonta Smith (16.8), Antonio Brown (16.2), Zach Ertz (11.4), O.J. Howard (3.2)
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