Welcome back!!! This is a showdown that you like to write about, and it’s a game worth watching. We could see a shootout with a bunch of fantasy points. What more do you want for a Thursday night game?? Well on paper it looks like that. That likely means we will get a defensive slug fest, because it’s DFS and everything seems to go polar opposite when most people think they know how it will play out.
When it comes to showdown slates, you have to tell a story with your lineup. Whichever game script you like for that team, you need that story to make sense for them. We all know lineup stacks and correlating our players is more popular than ever.
As for the matchup, it’s a divisional game that has big implications early in the season. The NFC West is a tough division, and to fall behind early in the year only makes it that much harder in the end. The Rams are coming off a divisional loss to the Arizona Cardinals, and the Seahawks are coming off a divisional win against the San Francisco 49ers. I knew the Cardinals were a good team, but I thought the Rams were the class of this division, but last week the Cardinals showed up and stated their case for the best in the West.
The Rams and Seahawks both are ranked 25th and 28th respectively in most passing yards allowed per game. The Rams have allowed an average of 273 passing yards per game, and the Seahawks have allowed 292 yards per game. That has the makings of a shootout all over it. Both teams also give it up on the ground too. The Rams give up an average of 123 yards per game on the ground. The Seahawks are dead last allowing 152 yards per game. There are lots of fantasy options because of how the game is setting up to be a track meet. So, if you’re playing multiple lineups, I would plan some around the passing game and the running games for both teams. Now, if you’re only playing one or three max, you need to limit the guys you want exposure to and make your lineups tell the story of the game script you like.
Vegas News: LAR -2.5, o/u 54.5
Embed from Getty ImagesRussell Wilson: ($11,800)- I’m expecting this to be a fast-paced game and Russ to be throwing more than he has. He’s not attempted more than 32 passes this season and is only averaging 27 pass attempts per game. I believe that changes in this one. I’m guessing he throws a minimum of 35 times and is likely to be closer to 40. On the year, he has nine touchdowns to zero interceptions. He has always been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. An efficient quarterback throwing the ball more times is a good thing for fantasy purposes. Also, if Chris Carson misses the game, that puts more on the right arm of Russ to keep the offense moving. All of these reasons make it hard to leave Russ out of your lineups.
DK Metcalf: ($10,200)- In no way am I saying that DK will have a bad game, but he’s going to be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. In two games and 53 coverages snaps against Ramsey, he was allowed one catch for 11 yards on four targets. For this price, that would crush your lineups. I know that was last year, and this is a new year, but Ramsey is the only cornerback that worries me, and it doesn’t matter who the receiver is. He finds ways to limit the receivers he faces off against, and DK is no exception. Now, you can play DK and hope he takes advantage of the snaps that Ramsey isn’t on him. I respect Ramsey’s skills, and that will limit my exposure to DK.
Tyler Lockett: ($9,600)- This feels like a Lockett spot to me. He avoids the matchup with Ramsey which is the biggest positive for him. In the past, we see these trends where it’s DK for a game or two and Lockett for the others. Well the last two games, Lockett has not been above seven fantasy points. This sets up as a get-right spot for him and I expect him to do so. As a quarterback, Russ doesn’t want to admit when he sees Ramsey on DK that he doesn’t look his way, but that’s what happens. The four targets in 53 coverage snaps show that. That means pre-snap he’s looking to see if Ramsey is on Metcalf, and if he is, he is looking for Lockett next and he is making him his primary read. He isn’t going to admit that, but I would bet it’s pretty similar to that. So, a game where Russ is likely to throw more and one of his favorite targets is going to be on an island, is a boost to Lockett. They’re close in prices, so I don’t fault you for going the DK route, but you’re banking on him to make the most out of the percentage of snaps he isn’t matched up with Ramsey. I feel better about taking the savings and avoiding that hassle. So, this is the hill I’m going to die on.
Chris Carson: ($6,600)- The news on Carson would have to make you feel good about using him on a short week. He hasn’t practiced this week and has a neck injury. It seems the injury has been lingering too, that’s the only reason to explain all of the touches he lost to Alex Collins last week. It doesn’t feel safe to me. Even if he plays, what are the touches going to look like? On the short week, I think Alex Collins ($3,200) is the better play. He is not as expensive and could get the same work that Carson does, if not more. That would be the route I go, and as someone who has quite a bit of Carson in season-long leagues, I hate saying that right now.
Gerald Everett: ($4,000)- What better game for Everett to come back for than against his old squad. There is a chance that he doesn’t play. If he plays, he is one of my favorite value plays. I don’t need to talk about the DK and Ramsey matchup anymore, but that matchup leaves the door open for another pass catcher to take advantage. My guess is Everett is one of them that benefits from that. The middle of the field is where the Rams will give up most of their yardage, and that’s the area that Everett will be working. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him with six or more targets in this one. With more targets being available and red zone targets too, it makes Everett a good value play.
Travis Homer: ($1,000)- The injury to Carson and the shootout potential makes it possible that Homer gets more work in the passing game. He is the best cheap value on this slate. The games the Seahawks have been down or more pass-heavy benefitted him. That is likely possible in this one, even if Carson wasn’t dealing with an injury. The fact he is dealing with an injury makes it even better. I will have quite a bit of exposure to Homer as my salary relief play with upside.
Embed from Getty ImagesMatt Stafford: ($ 11,400)- I was one of the fans that were genuinely happy when Stafford got traded to the Rams. It seemed like a perfect fit and a way for him to get the love he deserves. It’s been a great match, and he has lived up to the expectations. His last game wasn’t as clean as he would like, but sometimes a good defense is going to make even the best of quarterbacks struggle. This matchup isn’t anything like his last one, and he should be back to taking advantage of that. With the way it’s setting up, I believe both quarterbacks will be in the same lineup. Most of my lineups are going to have Stafford in them. It’s hard to envision a game script in which he doesn’t have another big game. The hard part is deciding which of his receivers is going to have a big game too.
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Cooper Kupp: ($12,400)- There isn’t much that needs to be said about the early connection between Kupp and Stafford. The numbers don’t lie, and while he might not put up 30 fantasy points every game. He will be involved heavily. In the four games this year, he has a floor of ten targets. That type of volume is hard to pass up. I will have as much exposure as I can, but I do think both QB’s will be in most lineups together, so getting Kupp in there too is going to be hard.
Darrell Henderson Jr. : ($8,400)- The loss of Cam Akers was unfortunate, but I know Henderson isn’t complaining. He is proving that he can be a three-down back and handle the workload. His work in the running game is good, but the passing game work is more encouraging. In the Bears game, they didn’t have to throw as much, but in the other two games he’s played in, he has had at least five targets. In a matchup where the defense gives it up through the air and ground, you have to like an RB who is getting most of the carries and targets. The volume will be there for him, and he won’t be game scripted out. You have to feel good about that. I feel good enough about it that he has been the Captain in most of my lineups I’ve built so far.
Robert Woods: ($7,600)- I’m not sure if it’s the number change or what, but we need “Bobby Trees” to be more involved. I was high on Woods coming into fantasy drafts because of the Stafford trade. So far that hasn’t gone as planned. It has to turn around at some point and this is the perfect spot for it. If he doesn’t have a big game then it might be time to hit the panic button on Woods. In the last two games, he has the same amount of targets as Van Jefferson. That isn’t encouraging at all, but I believe in the talent that is Bobby Trees too much. If there was ever a time for him to let his fantasy owners not to worry about him, it would be now. I think we see him get close to twenty fantasy points in this one. If he comes in behind Jefferson again, then it might be time to light the “Woods” on fire.
Tyler Higbee: ($5,600)- He’s been involved in the passing game and has had five or more targets in every game but one. The Rams are spreading the ball around, and Higbee is on the field constantly. The Seahawks are bottom half against the tight end position and have allowed over ten yards per catch to tight ends. That bodes well for Higbee and makes him a good value piece for your lineups. It also seems to be a trend that the TE’s have been coming up in showdown slates this year. It would be wise to have some Higbee exposure if you’re running multiple lineups. He isn’t a priority if you’re only playing single entry, but I think in three max you should have him in one at least.
Van Jefferson Jr: ($4,800)- It’s a good price for him, but I’m building my lineups based on the “Bobby Trees” game. So, for Woods to have a big game, it’s going to come at the expense of Jefferson. He is a good value if you think that Stafford continues to spread the ball around. You can’t deny his involvement this year, but at some point I think these targets are going to get more condensed and Jefferson is going to be on the outside looking in.
Favorite Captains: Darrell Henderson Jr., Robert Woods, Matt Stafford, Tyler Lockett
Contrarian Captains: DK Metcalf, Tyler Higbee
Cheap Captains: Travis Homer, Gerald Everett, Alex Collins
Others To Consider: Matt Gay, Jason Myers
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