Jahmyr Gibbs
Alabama
Running Back
5’9″, 199lbs
2022 Stats: 151-926-7 (Rushing) & 44-444-3 (Receiving)
Pros
If you’re not amongst the blessed few to hold a 2023 rookie draft 1.01, the consensus RB2, Jahmyr Gibbs, will be a strong consolation prize for running back needy teams. Gibbs was one to watch at the NFL Combine, with many dynasty managers interested in the former Alabama man’s size. While still on the smaller side, Gibbs’ measurements gave him a respectable BMI of 29.4 – just shy of the commonly-accepted threshold of 30.0 for workhorse running backs. We will get onto the downsides of Gibbs’ size a little later in this piece, but for many analysts (including myself), Gibbs will have hit an acceptable threshold to project success at the NFL level.
It is easy to see why Gibbs is projected as a late first/early second-round pick in the NFL draft. He is a dynamic playmaker, with elite speed and significant receiving upside. The former Alabama man is explosive – he has a rare combination of acceleration, shiftiness, and lateral quickness that make him nearly impossible to stop in the open field:
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Gibbs ran a 4.36 in the 40 yd dash at the NFL Combine. However, there are a lot of players with sheer raw speed; Gibbs sets himself apart with his excellent vision and an innate understanding of the perfect angle to take in space to beat a defender. His combination of physical skills and mental attributes make him a big play threat every time he touches the ball.
What makes Gibbs a potentially elite asset is his receiving upside, especially in PPR formats. The running back is a natural receiver, finishing 2022 with the most receptions for the Crimson Tide. Gibbs is a smooth route runner with natural hands, making him a legitimate threat in the passing game:
Yep, you saw that right – Gibbs is comfortable running routes from the slot, making him a versatile weapon. He is extremely difficult to stop in man coverage due to his skill set, and NFL coordinators will be excited to scheme him the ball in a variety of ways. We can comfortably predict regular involvement in the passing game for Gibbs, making him a strong option in PPR formats.
Cons
We do have to address Gibbs’ size before we consider adding him to our dynasty rosters. Despite his BMI providing some peace of mind, Gibbs is not built to carry the ball 15-20 times a game. Understandably, he will not have much use on inside runs between the tackles, which could see him leave the field more often than we’d like. His game lacks power, and he will often go down at the first point of contact. Given these physical downsides, he does have a tendency to bounce to the outside a little too frequently, which can cause him to lose yardage on plays where he could have picked up an easy 2-3 yds.
The biggest concern about projecting Gibbs’ production is his lack of involvement on the goal line. The walk-in touchdowns for running backs are the highest-value touches in fantasy football. Gibbs only had 20 snaps and 6 carries inside the 5-yard line across his entire college career (via CBS Sports). We cannot reasonably say this will change at the NFL level, which will rob him of valuable point opportunities. That being said, Gibbs’ quick feet and elusiveness make him a considerable threat, even in short-yardage situations. He will be involved in the red zone:
Lastly, Gibbs does need to significantly improve as a pass protector. This is a common con for running backs out of college, but with his frame, he may struggle to gain the trust of coordinators in pass-blocking snaps. Regardless, I would want and expect Gibbs to run routes in the majority of passing-down situations.
Summary
Jahmyr Gibbs is one of my favorite players in the 2023 class. He is extremely fun to watch, with feet that make you think he should be turning out on Dancing for the Stars! I have no doubt that he will be a success at the NFL level as a versatile weapon. However, for fantasy football, we do need to consider the downsides associated with a smaller running back. There is a risk he may not get the volume to be a true fantasy stud, a la D’Andre Swift. However, Gibbs has the ability to be a high-end receiving weapon at the next level, giving me confidence in his projection as a perennial RB1 in PPR formats.
2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: Early-Mid 1st
Ideal Role: Committee back alongside short-yardage grinder (12-14 rushes, 4-6 targets per game)
Player Comp: Jamaal Charles
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